Is the Wii bubble About to Burst?

[routsounmanman]

mrstickball said:
IMO, in the US and Europe, it seems like the Wii has a long way ahead until it'd start slowing down.

Mainly because the X360 and PS3 top-tier games aren't out yet. Halo3 is just the first in a huge slew of games, that could (emphasis on could) steal Wii thunder.

You basically have:

Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Brothers Brawl

vs.

Halo 3
Mass Effect

&

Metal Gear Solid 4
Final Fantasy XIII

+ Non-Wii Multiports:
Grand Theft Auto 4
Call of Duty 4
Rock Band

Now, the question is: can SMG and SSBB continue the Wii trend of uber-sellers, and allow Nintendo to re-capture the inititive in Japan, and restart 70k/wk sales, and hit insane holiday numbers?

I know some argue that "oh, the Wii is just down like every other system is down". True, but only to a point. The Playstation 3 is nowhere near it's lowest, despite few good games out - Bladestorm and HSG5 are the only 2 major games selling right now. So why exactly has the Wii gone from selling 7:1 to just 2:1? If the market was totally in recession, why isn't the ratio keeping in lock? For the PSP vs. DS, it was handily going in the DS's favor until FF:CC released on PSP, creating an anomaly.


As I've been saying for the whole year, I still see the Wii sales cresting in the US and Europe next year, slowly losing marketshare to the PS3 and X360. Remember, there was a time for 3-4 months that Wii sales were beating X360 and PS3 combined rather easily. That's not quite the case anymore. If that trend continued, MS will regain the US per-month lead, and will stay there, as the X360 lineup seems to be more favorable in the US, and the PS3 lineup, in Europe.

IMO, I still see the race being that Sony gets Europe barely, MS gets the US by a decent margin, and the Wii still manages a good lead in Japan. But we'll see how 2008 goes with the influx of Wii software.

7:1 now would suggest PS3 selling 4,2k wich would be very bad for Sony; really, there's a lowest point for sales. 4,2k means zero general interest from the people in the product, like Xbox360. What I'm trying to say is if Wii was at 700k and PS3 at 100k (7:1 ratio) then if the Wii fell by 100%, the PS3 would do so too (350k and 50k respectively) but you cannot expect the same analogy in such low numbers. If you see GC numbers now in Japan, you'll see weekly +66% or -100%; does that mean increased/decreased interest in the system? At such low numbers, it's unpredicatable at least.