You can't use preorders as what the game will sell in its first week. Every significant game I've watched has ended up topping its preorders by at least 10% in week one in Japan. Monster Hunter G has a demo of Monster Hunter 3 - its the same ploy as Final Fantasy XIII. There will be a boost of 20-30% for Wii hardware when it comes out at a minimum because some of the Monster Hunter audience will buy a Wii.

Deca Sporta 2 also comes out when the Final Fantasy XIII bundle releases. Even in the shadow of Smash Brothers last year, Deca Sporta 1 boosted Wii a little bit, so even with a likely big PS3 boost Wii isn't going to get swamped.

Japan will probably look like this through June barring any major announcements -

           Wii              PS3           Games/Event

4/11    18k            18k             Muramasa (~25k)

4/18    20k             30-40k       FFXIII demo (~150k?), Deca Sports 2 (~50k?)

4/25    32k             25-30k       Monster Hunter G (I'd say ~60k-90k preorders now... ~90k-150k week one)

5/2      45k             35k            Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)

5/9      50k             39k            Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)

5/16    33k             26k            Post-Golden Week Fall/Winning Eleven Playmaker Wii

5/23    35k             23k            Takt of Magic Wii

5/30    30k             25k            Shin Sangoku Musou 5/Agarest Senki PS3

6/6      27k             22k            Arc Rise Fantasia Wii

6/13    25k             19k

6/20    50-65k        14k            Wii Sports Resort (sometime in June)

6/27    40k             12k

I don't think that Atelier Rorona, Bionic Commando and Blazeblue will be that big in Japan, but shouldn't they move atleast some hardware? I know that Blazeblue is pretty big there in the arcades, and the legs for PS3 games are also becoming better.

Anyway, people have been predicting that the PS3 would fall below the Wii after the release of RE5, and we are now in April...

I love Japan numbers. I'll be keeping an eye on this one. Thanks again BKK2!

monster hunter was only big in the psp even if it start in the ps2.

its not console like game, but rather meet your friends at the train and wireless net play.

thats why it's fun for them, they take longs trips in their high tech transportations to play.

capcom said once thats probably will be a reason monster hunter won't be big in the US.

So u don't expect PS3 to topple Wii again except for FFXIII demo week till June.

Few weeks ago you predict almost the same scenario, but the truth is different ...but still - I like your prediction. My opinion for upcoming months (based on Media Create):

           Wii              PS3           Games/Event

4/11    16-17k        18-19k       Muramasa (~23k)

4/18    18k             40k ?         FFXIII demo (~depends on shipment), Deca Sports 2

4/25    25k             30k            Monster Hunter G

5/2      30k             28k            Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)

5/9      35k             32k            Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)

5/16    25k             26k            Post-Golden Week Fall/Winning Eleven Playmaker Wii

5/23    23k             23k            Takt of Magic Wii

5/30    22k             27k            Shin Sangoku Musou 5/Agarest Senki PS3

6/6      22k             24k            Arc Rise Fantasia Wii

6/13    20k             22k

6/20    18k             19k           

6/27    16k             24k           Agarest Senki Zero/BlazBlue/Rorona no Atelier

Sorry for my english.

Well I didnt expect PS3 to hold up quite as well as it has, but I looked at my prediction the other day and it looks like PS3 and Wii are both within 10% each week of what I predicted, its just that PS3 was my prediction + 10% while Wii was about 10% less. Since PS3 & Wii have been so close in Japan lately that amounts to "Wii outsold PS3" or "PS3 outsold Wii".

The only thing that's going to be interesting on the HW side this year is new PSP model (PSP-4000). If it really is no UMD, dual stick, alide and touch screen model (as has been rumoured), we're going to have a Pac-Man chart for a while. I do wonder how they are going to track software sales for the thing, but I quess all will be revealed at E3.

Anyway, can't wait for this week's Japan Preview.

Pretty ok first day for Muramasa. Iirc that's the second best opening for a Vanillaware title ever. 50% sellthrough is also hopeful.

Looks like PS3 will beat Wii for two more weeks, but then I expect that to be the last time until FFXIII.

It was about time Wii got a string of releases, but starting with Deca Sporta 2 and MHG followed by golden week it might should be back in the 20k's for a while.

I thought there were 90.000 MHG Classic Controller packs. I assume these will sell out week one? They're pretty awesome.

Even without new PSP-4000 the HW numbers going to be interesting for this portable system (Persona, Tales of VS, Parasite Eve 3, Agito FF XIII and new MH).