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TheSource said:

You can't use preorders as what the game will sell in its first week. Every significant game I've watched has ended up topping its preorders by at least 10% in week one in Japan. Monster Hunter G has a demo of Monster Hunter 3 - its the same ploy as Final Fantasy XIII. There will be a boost of 20-30% for Wii hardware when it comes out at a minimum because some of the Monster Hunter audience will buy a Wii.

Deca Sporta 2 also comes out when the Final Fantasy XIII bundle releases. Even in the shadow of Smash Brothers last year, Deca Sporta 1 boosted Wii a little bit, so even with a likely big PS3 boost Wii isn't going to get swamped.

Japan will probably look like this through June barring any major announcements -

           Wii              PS3           Games/Event

4/11    18k            18k             Muramasa (~25k)

4/18    20k             30-40k       FFXIII demo (~150k?), Deca Sports 2 (~50k?)

4/25    32k             25-30k       Monster Hunter G (I'd say ~60k-90k preorders now... ~90k-150k week one)

5/2      45k             35k            Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)

5/9      50k             39k            Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)

5/16    33k             26k            Post-Golden Week Fall/Winning Eleven Playmaker Wii

5/23    35k             23k            Takt of Magic Wii

5/30    30k             25k            Shin Sangoku Musou 5/Agarest Senki PS3

6/6      27k             22k            Arc Rise Fantasia Wii

6/13    25k             19k

6/20    50-65k        14k            Wii Sports Resort (sometime in June)

6/27    40k             12k

So u don't expect PS3 to topple Wii again except for FFXIII demo week till June.