You can't use preorders as what the game will sell in its first week. Every significant game I've watched has ended up topping its preorders by at least 10% in week one in Japan. Monster Hunter G has a demo of Monster Hunter 3 - its the same ploy as Final Fantasy XIII. There will be a boost of 20-30% for Wii hardware when it comes out at a minimum because some of the Monster Hunter audience will buy a Wii.
Deca Sporta 2 also comes out when the Final Fantasy XIII bundle releases. Even in the shadow of Smash Brothers last year, Deca Sporta 1 boosted Wii a little bit, so even with a likely big PS3 boost Wii isn't going to get swamped.
Japan will probably look like this through June barring any major announcements -
Wii PS3 Games/Event
4/11 18k 18k Muramasa (~25k)
4/18 20k 30-40k FFXIII demo (~150k?), Deca Sports 2 (~50k?)
4/25 32k 25-30k Monster Hunter G (I'd say ~60k-90k preorders now... ~90k-150k week one)
5/2 45k 35k Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)
5/9 50k 39k Golden Week (Apr 29 to May 6)
5/16 33k 26k Post-Golden Week Fall/Winning Eleven Playmaker Wii
5/23 35k 23k Takt of Magic Wii
5/30 30k 25k Shin Sangoku Musou 5/Agarest Senki PS3
6/6 27k 22k Arc Rise Fantasia Wii
6/13 25k 19k
6/20 50-65k 14k Wii Sports Resort (sometime in June)
6/27 40k 12k
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
