Here is how I see it: Nintendo will look at all three markets differently based on the strength of 360 and PS3 Japan is the simplest. Sony NEEDS MGS4 by the end of the year. I think Nintendo counters with Galaxy in August/September. Brawl comes out at the same time as MGS4 - think about it - buy a $400 PS3 - or have Yoshi turn Snake into an egg in a fighting game...the release of MGS4 could actually help Smash Brothers sales if Snake is featured in the advertisements... If MGS4 doesn't come out in Japan in 2007, Galaxy, DQ Swords, Wii Health, Big Brain Academy, and Super Paper Mario carry the Wii this year in Japan (along with Wario, Twilight Princess, Wii Play, Wii Sports, Pokemon, Mario Party 8, Fire Emblem..etc). I would save Smash Brothers, Mario Party 9, Wii Sports 2, Disaster, Wii Music for 2008...2009 you get a new Zelda, Kid Icarus, Mario Kart, Kirby, Pikmin, Animal Crossing..etc.. North America I say Mario Galaxy and Metroid for the end of the year. On some level, Nintendo would like to counteract Halo 3, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Madden, MGS4, but the theory is big games like DDR, Guitar Hero Wii, Fight Night, Big Brain Academy, Wii Health, Super Paper Mario, can keep driving Wii demand. Ubi Soft and EA are going to make a killing on some Wii games I think. Other third parties will follow, so I don't think Smash Brothers will be out this year. Its a big bullet...and it has to be perfect online to appease western gamers. Europe Same as North America..but earlier releases for 'non-games'. Mario makes it by October..Metroid for December to ensure a strong holiday. Smash Brothers in March 08' or so.

Y'know, I'd say Metroid isn't even close to being part of a "big three." There are 4 exclusive games tentatively slated for this year which are part of franchises which have produced 5-million sellers... Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Animal Crossing, and MySims from EA. Plus, Wii has two games I would consider major wild cards, in Wii Health Pack and Tiger Woods (either 07 or 08, both presumably coming out this year) who we have no historical indicators for, but could be HUGE. The Metroid franchise has never put a game over 3 million in sales... So I don't see it being quite important enough to list as part of "the big three" among that release list. Though, there's only about a 1% chance ALL of those games make it out this year. AC in particular I think has no chance... And MySims little chance... Meh... I'm having a hard time finding a source where AC was actually listed as a 2007 game, but I swore I read that the other day...

Metroid games are amazing and have always had a huge following. Granted, this following is more for the Nintendo base vs. those who may or may not usually buy a nintendo product. I.e. it is not a system seller similar to SSBB or Zelda. I would say MP3 is a highly anticipated game though and of all games purported as coming out this year is in the top 3. Wii Health and Tiger could be huge though. I for one am really considering buying Tiger. AC and MySims will be 1st qtr 2008. I have no proof, just my predictions.

i think there are still a lot of hardcore gamers out there who owned a gamecube and now think that nintendo cares to much about casuals and because of that they haven't bought a wii yet. games like mp3 will sure make them get a wii, which means that in my opinion, metroid could also be kind of a system seller.

Metroid Prime 3, will indeed, be a system seller, but probably not on the larger scale like Mario Galaxy, SSBB, or perhaps even MySims would be.

In my opinion, I think Metroid Prime 3 will be the first to come out. I mean...you've seen the tv ads? They often advertise things like Red Steel, Zelda, and in one or two ads they show them playing Metroid. It's been pretty much complete for a long time...I think Nintendo would be able to release this game first. If not, then Mario for sure. It's certainly getting near done...waiting for the right time to launch apparently. I think it will come second though...with this recent footage meant to satisfy our SMG needs so it can be held off a little longer. EDIT: And I can see how Mario can come first, seeing as it definitely won't have any online function needed. SSBB is certainly last, as it's still getting worked on as far as we know.

Agreed on this. I think shipping a game with major problems and then depending on patches is a very bad policy and I think that's been shown time and again. Maybe some people don't care, those who want the game out regardless. I say if it's not good enough, wait until it's finished instead of ruining the experience with an incomplete product. There's HUGE demand. SSBM is still among the top 10 best-selling GCN games in North America every month. There are a heck of a lot of people still playing it that WILL be interested in new characters, stages, moves, etc. -- especially if it's made with the quality of SSBM. As long as Sakurai takes his time and builds it absolutely right like SSBM, the players will come.

Yeah, and that's why it'll be the last to come out...they've gotta nail the perfect game down, or else it's going to do serious harm to the Wii. It's gotta be just like SSBM, but with more characters, maps, and improved skills and moves of course. I think they're quite capable of making a great game...but if it's not what everybody wants, it's gonna be hell.

See, I don't know what kind of sales that MySims can do. But the franchise has obviously shown a lot more sales potential in the past then Metroid has. I think best case scenario for Metroid, is that even if it gets a boost from being a marquee title for the existing gamer audience on a system much more popular than Gamecube, that it still does well under 4 million. MySims... If it completely went off without a hitch, I think could be bigger. That relies on it nailing its goal of infiltrating Japan, and still doing great in the West too. Then again, it could do "only" 1 million WW too... Hard to tell if the Sims is declining, or if it even has 5 million+ sales potential on a home console... I guess maybe it belongs in the "wild card" column.

LOL so true. Sony nearly always gets it wrong the first time around.