Here is how I see it: Nintendo will look at all three markets differently based on the strength of 360 and PS3 Japan is the simplest. Sony NEEDS MGS4 by the end of the year. I think Nintendo counters with Galaxy in August/September. Brawl comes out at the same time as MGS4 - think about it - buy a $400 PS3 - or have Yoshi turn Snake into an egg in a fighting game...the release of MGS4 could actually help Smash Brothers sales if Snake is featured in the advertisements... If MGS4 doesn't come out in Japan in 2007, Galaxy, DQ Swords, Wii Health, Big Brain Academy, and Super Paper Mario carry the Wii this year in Japan (along with Wario, Twilight Princess, Wii Play, Wii Sports, Pokemon, Mario Party 8, Fire Emblem..etc). I would save Smash Brothers, Mario Party 9, Wii Sports 2, Disaster, Wii Music for 2008...2009 you get a new Zelda, Kid Icarus, Mario Kart, Kirby, Pikmin, Animal Crossing..etc.. North America I say Mario Galaxy and Metroid for the end of the year. On some level, Nintendo would like to counteract Halo 3, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Madden, MGS4, but the theory is big games like DDR, Guitar Hero Wii, Fight Night, Big Brain Academy, Wii Health, Super Paper Mario, can keep driving Wii demand. Ubi Soft and EA are going to make a killing on some Wii games I think. Other third parties will follow, so I don't think Smash Brothers will be out this year. Its a big bullet...and it has to be perfect online to appease western gamers. Europe Same as North America..but earlier releases for 'non-games'. Mario makes it by October..Metroid for December to ensure a strong holiday. Smash Brothers in March 08' or so.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
