Sonic got a 32/40 in Famitsu (silver), and he is easy to control. It is for a popular system in Japan (unlike Sega systems or Game Cube) and a Wii exclusive...How well will it sell in Japan? I say 150,000 total sales...90,000 or so first week.

I honestly don't know Source. I would need to look at how Sonic titles sold on Gamecube and PS2 to try and make a judgement on that. Sega actually seemed to sell more games as a hardware manufacturer. Thats just going off of memory though. I am about to leave for work and I don't have time to check the charts at the moment

How big exactly is Sonic in Japan? IIRC, Sonic was made for an American audience in mind. If that's the case then I don't see it doing all that great.

After looking at the Sonic sales numbers in Japan via this site. I think your lifetime sales numbers aren't too ambitious The Source. Sonic Adventure 2 sold over 200k on GC, both Sonic Advance titles sold over 200k. Outside of remakes, new Sonic release have sold anywhere from 120k to 465k. Most seem to hit about the 200k mark. So I think the the GC title will probably sell about 100k to 150k lifetime. I don't now about the 90k the first week number though. I'm thinking more like 60 to 70k. I think Sonic will perform similarly to the recently released Fire Emblem: Goddess of Dawn.

True, we'll find out in just under 2 weeks, I believe sonic comes out on the 15th or 16th in Japan. Only thing that could bring some big sales is lots of advertisements.

Seems like it should do good just because it's a exclusive and do people Japan buy games because of reviews from Famitsu?

The last sonic really has made me mad. So this new one has earned rental status. The last sonic I really enjoyed was sonic adventure and SA part 2 with friends.

I dont think Sonic o/w will do as much as many think it will...Some say FE numbers. I say Naturo numbers - 40~45 o/w, but stays high(er) on the list. 20k week after, and cruises to 150~225k.

I think Sonic will do around 35k the first week who knows after that, for the record i have that game and it's one of the best 3D Sonic's since the first Sonic Adventure.

I think because it is a good Sonic game (I have it too), it can sell a decent number in the first week, then double or triple its sales (eventually) as the Wii base grows rapidly, and word of mouth gets out. I do think it will be in the top 10 in February in NA at ~ 200,000 or so. Sales of maybe 50,000-100,000 after that in March. I think around 500,000 worldwide is reasonable...depends on Japan. It will definitely sell in the Americas and will likely sell in Europe.