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After looking at the Sonic sales numbers in Japan via this site. I think your lifetime sales numbers aren't too ambitious The Source. Sonic Adventure 2 sold over 200k on GC, both Sonic Advance titles sold over 200k. Outside of remakes, new Sonic release have sold anywhere from 120k to 465k. Most seem to hit about the 200k mark. So I think the the GC title will probably sell about 100k to 150k lifetime. I don't now about the 90k the first week number though. I'm thinking more like 60 to 70k. I think Sonic will perform similarly to the recently released Fire Emblem: Goddess of Dawn.