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Forums - Sales - Predict the percent (%) of market share for the Wii, PS3, 360 by gen's end

Legend11 on 07 September 2007
RolStoppable said:

People usually choose the system with the most games available once it reaches a for them reasonable price point (like the PS2 last gen), and most people only buy one console per generation. By the time the 360 and/or PS3 drop to $200, the Wii will already have such a big game library (with a great variety as well) that the 360 and PS3 won't stand a chance saleswise because of their comparable small libraries.


It depends on when the consoles start closing in on $200.  So far for 2008 the only big games announced for the Wii are Mario Kart and Wii Fit.  I'm sure someone will bring up a list of third party Wii exclusives but lets be honest, there are not many games on that list in the same league as Resident Evil 5 or Grand Theft Auto 4 or other major third party titles coming to the 360 or PS3.  Maybe the Tokyo Game Show will surprise everyone with a lot of very high profile previously unannounced Wii third party titles but unless they started development recently it's unlikely that we'll be seeing a lot of new major FPS or sandbox titles or other genres the Wii is lacking in anytime soon.  So it may be 2009 or 2010 before we start seeing the kind of library that would cause a lot of people to immediately discount looking at the 360 or PS3 when they're looking at consoles.  By that time it's likely that both of those systems would have come down at least $100-$200 and the window of opportunity may still be open.



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leo-j on 07 September 2007

@ROL

Dont sell your wii, there are some great games coming out for it.



 

mM
Final-Fan on 07 September 2007

(Prediction transplant!)

I predict:

Wii: 60%-70%
PS3: 15%-25%
360: 15%-20%
Estimated home console market: 200-250 million

For historical reference:
PS2: 68.00% (117.89)
XBX: 14.28% (24.76)
GC: 12.45% (21.59)
DC: 05.27% (9.13)
Total home console market: 173.37 million (prob. 180-185 eventual)



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jimmay on 07 September 2007
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:

The wii is getting left behind in terms of quality top rated software. This christmas isnt going to change anything either, in fact it gets even worse for the wii. Looking into the future of 2008 of all the 3 consoles both the 360 and ps3 have more top games annouced for their respective systems than the wii.

Yup, it's getting really bad for the Wii in the upcoming months and next year. Should I sell my Wii now and if I do should I either get the 360 or PS3?
You can be as sarcastic as you want but the wii in terms of quality games gets raped in the second half of 07 and in 2008 it doesnt look any better.

 



HappySqurriel on 07 September 2007
jimmay said:
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:

The wii is getting left behind in terms of quality top rated software. This christmas isnt going to change anything either, in fact it gets even worse for the wii. Looking into the future of 2008 of all the 3 consoles both the 360 and ps3 have more top games annouced for their respective systems than the wii.

Yup, it's getting really bad for the Wii in the upcoming months and next year. Should I sell my Wii now and if I do should I either get the 360 or PS3?
You can be as sarcastic as you want but the wii in terms of quality games gets raped in the second half of 07 and in 2008 it doesnt look any better.

 

 

Between the second half of 2007 and the First half of 2008 Nintendo will have released Metroid Prime 3, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Mario Kart ... 4 games with a proven track record of getting high review scores and selling Millions of copies; three of those games have always scored higher than 90% and 3 of those games have always sold more than 5 Million copies.

 

 



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jimmay on 07 September 2007
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:

The wii is getting left behind in terms of quality top rated software. This christmas isnt going to change anything either, in fact it gets even worse for the wii. Looking into the future of 2008 of all the 3 consoles both the 360 and ps3 have more top games annouced for their respective systems than the wii.

Yup, it's getting really bad for the Wii in the upcoming months and next year. Should I sell my Wii now and if I do should I either get the 360 or PS3?
You can be as sarcastic as you want but the wii in terms of quality games gets raped in the second half of 07 and in 2008 it doesnt look any better.

How do you define quality games? 1) Average rating on gamerankings/metacritic or 2) personal opinion?

If 1) No
If 2) No


Games that review well. If you happen to like games that review badly then good for you, you just have poor taste in gaming that's all.

Legend11 on 07 September 2007
RolStoppable said:

The reports of 3rd parties shifting more resources towards the Wii appeared 4-6 months ago, quality Wii games should take about 18-24 months to develop, so we should see a very solid lineup from Nintendo and 3rd parties in the second half of 2008, early enough before 360 and/or PS3 will reach the massmarket price point.

If the Wii still sells strong during next year (which it should, nothing suggests otherwise), there won't be a reason for 3rd parties to shift resources back to 360/PS3 development. It's more likely that 3rd parties will shift even more resources to the Wii in the next couple of years, which makes a comeback (or stronger sales) of the HD consoles once they hit $200 very unlikely because 3rd party support will be drying up in 2009/10.

EDIT: Apparently Soriku couldn't resist to post a list of games. Good call.


You're really just making a lot of predictions without knowing if what you're saying is actually going to happen or not.  You don't know for sure if in the second half of 2008 we're going to see a lot of major titiles similar to Resident Evil 4, Grand Theft Auto 4. etc released on the Wii.  Both EA and Ubisoft for example have came out before and said they're shifting resources to the Wii yet so far what we have seen is nothing like the previous games I've mentioned.  I realize good games take time but if you listen to their executives it becomes very obvious they're looking at very casual games for the Wii.

Also are they really shifting resources or simply expanding their resources for Wii games?  For example both EA and Ubisoft are expanding in order to make more Wii games but their existing studios are still there making PS3/360/PC games.  Companies like Starbreeze Studios and Stormfront Studios for example are gearing up to make new games for the PS3/360, these aren't games started a year or two or three ago, they're games that were started a few months ago or that will be started soon.

I realize that this is a prediction thread but what I've been trying to point out is that people who point at the PS1 or PS2 and say "It's going to be the same thing with the Wii" may not be seeing the full picture or realize that the situations aren't exactly the same, Sony didn't dominate their own console's software sales like Nintendo does with theirs, the PS1 and PS2 didn't have a radically different kind of controller that changed the way games are played on it, and their audience wasn't nearly as diverse as what the Wii has.  Those are factors that may make third parties think twice or have to be literally dragged into Wii development (unlike say the PS2 where everyone from the get-go had huge games in development for it).

As for the statements I've made about the 360 and PS3 reaching $200, it's a given that there will be price drops, it's not a given what the software situation of the three consoles will be.  I'm just saying that at $200 those consoles will finally have mass market price points and will have games and features not available on the Wii so It's up for debate if people will simply look at the Wii's lineup and discount the lineups of the other two consoles.  Also the statement of development drying up for the 360 and PS3, that is a prediction and if current development and new projects are any indication, it's not going to become a fact.



jimmay on 07 September 2007
HappySqurriel said:
jimmay said:
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:

The wii is getting left behind in terms of quality top rated software. This christmas isnt going to change anything either, in fact it gets even worse for the wii. Looking into the future of 2008 of all the 3 consoles both the 360 and ps3 have more top games annouced for their respective systems than the wii.

Yup, it's getting really bad for the Wii in the upcoming months and next year. Should I sell my Wii now and if I do should I either get the 360 or PS3?
You can be as sarcastic as you want but the wii in terms of quality games gets raped in the second half of 07 and in 2008 it doesnt look any better.

 

 

Between the second half of 2007 and the First half of 2008 Nintendo will have released Metroid Prime 3, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Mario Kart ... 4 games with a proven track record of getting high review scores and selling Millions of copies; three of those games have always scored higher than 90% and 3 of those games have always sold more than 5 Million copies.

 

 


Just because the wii is getting a hand full of games doesn't suddenly mean it is getting more or better games than the competition. Just for the second half of 2007 the 360 games that the wii doesnt have:

All-Pro Football 2K8
NCAA Football 08
NASCAR 08
BioShock
MotoGP 07
Blue Dragon
Stuntman Ignition
Stranglehold
Medal of Honor: Airborne
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - Game of the Year Edition
NHL 2K8
NHL 08
Blazing Angels 2: Secret Missions of WWII
Eternal Sonata
Skate
Halo 3
NBA 2K8
Project Gotham Racing 4
Lost Odyssey
Sega Rally Revo
Half-Life 2: The Orange Box
Beautiful Katamari
Conan
Clive Barker's Jericho
Ace Combat 6: Fires of Liberation
Virtua Fighter 5
Viva Pinata: Party Animals
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
Scene It? Lights, Camera, Action
Bladestorm: The Hundred Years' War
F.E.A.R. Files
Army of Two
Kane & Lynch: Dead Men
Assassin's Creed
Rock Band
Mass Effect

Ps3 games that the wii doesnt have:

All-Pro Football 2K8
NCAA Football 08
NASCAR 08
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2
Warhawk
Stuntman Ignition
Stranglehold
Medal of Honor: Airborne
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - Game of the Year Edition
NHL 2K8
NHL 08
DiRT
Heavenly Sword
Skate
Blazing Angels 2: Secret Missions of WWII
NBA 2K8
NBA 08
Sega Rally Revo
Half-Life 2: The Orange Box
Folklore
Clive Barker's Jericho
The Eye of Judgment
Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction
Conan
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
College Hoops 2k8
Bladestorm: The Hundred Years' War
F.E.A.R. Files
SingStar
Army of Two
Kane & Lynch: Dead Men
Assassin's Creed
Unreal Tournament 3
Haze
Rock Band
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
Time Crisis 4
SOCOM: Confrontation
Wipeout HD
Gran Turismo 5 Proluge



HappySqurriel on 07 September 2007
jimmay said:
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:

The wii is getting left behind in terms of quality top rated software. This christmas isnt going to change anything either, in fact it gets even worse for the wii. Looking into the future of 2008 of all the 3 consoles both the 360 and ps3 have more top games annouced for their respective systems than the wii.

Yup, it's getting really bad for the Wii in the upcoming months and next year. Should I sell my Wii now and if I do should I either get the 360 or PS3?
You can be as sarcastic as you want but the wii in terms of quality games gets raped in the second half of 07 and in 2008 it doesnt look any better.

How do you define quality games? 1) Average rating on gamerankings/metacritic or 2) personal opinion?

If 1) No
If 2) No


Games that review well. If you happen to like games that review badly then good for you, you just have poor taste in gaming that's all.

Metroid Prime 3, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Super Mario Galaxy, Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles, Man Hunt 2, and Soul Calibur Legends for 2007 (with high hopes for Mario and Sonic Olympics, Harvest Moon, and Batallion Wars 2)

Mario Kart, Final Fantasy Chrystal Chronicles, Animal Crossing, Disaster: Day of Crisis, and Dragon Quest Swords for 2008 (at the moment)



jimmay on 07 September 2007
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:
RolStoppable said:
jimmay said:

The wii is getting left behind in terms of quality top rated software. This christmas isnt going to change anything either, in fact it gets even worse for the wii. Looking into the future of 2008 of all the 3 consoles both the 360 and ps3 have more top games annouced for their respective systems than the wii.

Yup, it's getting really bad for the Wii in the upcoming months and next year. Should I sell my Wii now and if I do should I either get the 360 or PS3?
You can be as sarcastic as you want but the wii in terms of quality games gets raped in the second half of 07 and in 2008 it doesnt look any better.

How do you define quality games? 1) Average rating on gamerankings/metacritic or 2) personal opinion?

If 1) No
If 2) No


Games that review well. If you happen to like games that review badly then good for you, you just have poor taste in gaming that's all.

So if the Wii is going to "get raped in terms of quality games in the second half of 07", what is happening to the PS3 then? No offense to Sony fans, but out of the three consoles the PS3 is the one that is closest to "get raped in terms of quality games in the second half of 07".


360>ps3>wii in terms of overall software quality for the second half of 2007. 3 big wii games doesnt make up for the lack of other big games and variety.