inspired by another thread, this is for a more specific breakdown though

so, we have 140m or so PS2 owners, lets assume that ALL of them buy a current gen console by 2012

The Wii appeals to the more casual PS2 owners and gamers who buy based on price and/or how popular a console is
so, i estimate that 65m of thoose 140m PS2 owners will migrate to the Wii

The 360 appeals to the more hardcore PS2 owners who arent Sony fanboys, its also the cheapest so will attract gamers on a smaller budget, so the estimate id give for PS2 migration to the 360 is 40m thats down on the Wii, but up on the PS3 as ill discuss in the next paragraph

The PS3 appeals to the most hardcore PS2 owners and Sony fans as well as gamers with enough spare cash, it has the Playstation brand name to guarantee it at least some PS2 migration, the high price point has shot it in the foot somewhat though, so id estimate just 35m of thoose 140m PS2 owners will migrate to the PS3, thats 5m less than to the 360 and a full 30m less than the Wii

Now, if we assume that NO PS2 users have yet upgraded, and that all future console sales are to that 140m, then with my estimates, the generation will end up a little like this

Wii: 115m
360: 70m
PS3: 55m

i would say that this is an unfair estimation though, as i think that some of the PS2 users have already done so, so now lets assume that this generation will see 245m consoles sold, 140m from PS2, 20m from GC, 25m from XBOX, 10m from DC and finally a market growth of 50m consoles, it should breakdown something like this

Wii: 140m
360: 65m
PS3: 40m

this is just my anylasis anyway, please tell me what you think and what your predictions are

so your saying that only sony fanboys will buy a ps3? your analysis doesnt explain why the ps3 has already caught up to the 360 in europe. man europe must be full of sony fanboys!

no, read my post in full, i think only 35m of the 140m PS2 owners will buy a PS3, i also think that the PS3 will sell at least 40m consoles this generation, the PS3 caught the 360 in europe, but is now falling back again, its 8-9m behind the 360 WW and is selling less on a week by week basis, its hard to see how the PS3 will catch the 360 atm

I thought that was obvious to everyone?! Everyone knew Europe love the playstation brand.

This actually makes sense. I think the sales will be much higher on all systems LTD. Remember that the Wii broke in a whole new group of casual gamers.

~30m PS2 owners bought the system at $300 in 2000-2002 money which is worth about (not quite, but close) to what PS3 costs today ($400) if you adjust for inflation.

hmm interesting prediction but those numbers are purly specualtion without much reasoning to go behind them so well just take them as ur prediction

First thing - PS2 sales are about 125 mill
Second thing - Any prediction that has the Wii at a mere 140 mill end of life is invalid

What was your point again?

Not going to question the prediction, but really if you think about there is not much reason for a PS2 owner that hasnt purchased a next gen console (or a Wii) to pick up a PS3.

With backwards compatability gone they wont pick up a PS3 as a replacement PS2.

With nearly all 3rd party titles going to 360 as well as PS3, and usually better on 360 as well.

The 1st/2nd party exclusives now coming for the PS3 (with GT5 the exception) are not well known/super popular franchises so whats to say people will go to the PS3 because of an exclusive PS3 title over an exclusive 360 title. GT5 already negated somewhat with GT5 Prolog selling in excess of 3 million.

What that really leaves is the sole differentiator for the PS3 is Blu-Ray and Blu-Ray players are now priced at mainstream prices (sub $200).