PS2 Migration and its affect on this generation

[SciFiBoy]

inspired by another thread, this is for a more specific breakdown though

so, we have 140m or so PS2 owners, lets assume that ALL of them buy a current gen console by 2012

The Wii appeals to the more casual PS2 owners and gamers who buy based on price and/or how popular a console is
so, i estimate that 65m of thoose 140m PS2 owners will migrate to the Wii

The 360 appeals to the more hardcore PS2 owners who arent Sony fanboys, its also the cheapest so will attract gamers on a smaller budget, so the estimate id give for PS2 migration to the 360 is 40m thats down on the Wii, but up on the PS3 as ill discuss in the next paragraph

The PS3 appeals to the most hardcore PS2 owners and Sony fans as well as gamers with enough spare cash, it has the Playstation brand name to guarantee it at least some PS2 migration, the high price point has shot it in the foot somewhat though, so id estimate just 35m of thoose 140m PS2 owners will migrate to the PS3, thats 5m less than to the 360 and a full 30m less than the Wii

Now, if we assume that NO PS2 users have yet upgraded, and that all future console sales are to that 140m, then with my estimates, the generation will end up a little like this

Wii: 115m
360: 70m
PS3: 55m

i would say that this is an unfair estimation though, as i think that some of the PS2 users have already done so, so now lets assume that this generation will see 245m consoles sold, 140m from PS2, 20m from GC, 25m from XBOX, 10m from DC and finally a market growth of 50m consoles, it should breakdown something like this

Wii: 140m
360: 65m
PS3: 40m

this is just my anylasis anyway, please tell me what you think and what your predictions are