VGChartz Hardware data for the period 28th Dec 2008 to 20th Jun 2009:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 30th Dec 2007 to 21st Jun 2008:

This week -103,275 units =(((((((

Wii is DOWN 1,187,319 units from 2008!  =(

You do realize that Wii is probably going to perform much better in Japan in the second half of 2009 which can offset slightly down or flat sales in the Americas. Wii will also likely be up in Others this year.

Wii did 1.18m in Japan in 26 weeks over the second of 2008. That averages out to 44,600 or so.

This year, we know Wii will do say 90k for MH3 week, 90k for NSMB Wii week, 50k for Wii Fit Plus week, 50k for Samurai Warrior 3 week, 50k for Tales of Graces week, and 40k for FF: CC Week.

Thats 370k, assuming these titles release by late November (non Holiday weeks).

The fifteen non-holiday, non-big-release weeks can probably stay at 30k with the more constant stream. So you get 450k for those 15 weeks, 370k for the six big weeks, and then you have the big December. Wii can probably do 600k-800k with Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit +, NSMB, Samuari Warriors 3, Monster Hunter 3, FF: CC, Tales of Graces and whatever else as recent releases.

So...700k+ 370k+ 450k

That gives you 1.52m, which is up 20% from last year, and about 340,000. The new colors, a price cut and other games (Mario & Sonic? RE: DC?) may add a bit to it as well.

Wii will be way down worldwide everywhere. Why don't we wait until we see what the real effect of Wii Sports Resort is? I don't think Wii will perform better than it did in 2008 in Japan, that's impossible. WSR and Wii Fit+ are sequels, so they are intended to be sold to existing users, rather than new Wii owners like it happened when they got released. So far the numbers tell you that Wii is on a decline and that interest went down a lot.

We shouldnt go so far ahead and predict exact figures for every week, we should wait and see.

It is not impossible for Wii to rise in Japan. PS1 had easily its best year in Japan in 1997, it launched in late 1994.

Wii Sports Resort isn't just a game. So the audience argument doesn't work. It has an accessory that enhances the entire Wii experience - that will draw in new audiences. The pattern is the same as the Balance Board - you are doing sports activities in Wii Fit you just do them with a balance board and not a Wii-remote. The appeal was the new play style. You have sword fighting in WSR, foot based platforming in Wii Fit Plus, and the latter is online.

If you don't believe that, you still have Monster Hunter 3, Tales of Graces, Samuarai Warriors 3, FF:CC, and NSMB to provide big lifts. Daily preorder rates for Monster Hunter 3 have doubled since Wii Sports Resort launched in Japan (granted, only two days) but it at least one explination is that with 2x the number of Wii purchases, the rate of MH3 preorders doubled.

You still going too far ahead of everything. We don't have official dates for any of those games save for MH3, so how can you be so sure of everything? For all we know SW3, FFCC:CB, Tales of Graces, RE:DSC and M&S 2 could be released in 2010. Honestly, Wii is in a very bad shape right now in Japan and it's obvious, 100% obvious that it will perform worse than in 2008 even if 2nd Half ends up being better than 2nd half of 2008.

As for WW figures, Wii will be still going down until WSR launches, and then again you can't be sure that the lift will be that big. 2009 will be smaller than 2008, but 2010 may be another story, depending on what games Nintendo has ready. If it's anything like 2009, then I could see it performing worse. Remember you and ioi predicted 4-5 million for Punch Out. Using that PO prediction you could be more conservative this time.

Will be down YoY by a "small" margin at the end of 2009. I mean, Wii is already down in every region. In Japan things have to take a drastic turn and maybe with MH3 that happens, which comes out 1st August. In the US and Others a bump won't happen until WSR comes out, which is last week of July. So with 5 months left and being down YoY by 1.5 million, it will be difficult for the Wii to top its 2008 performance.

Remember that last year Wii was supply constrained and that most of the shipments were sold during the same week they were made. There was a huge demand and that's why sales were so huge. June 2008 saw sales of 666k units according to NPD, and so far it looks like it will be down from May 2009.

I agree we should wait and see, but so far Wii is down YoY, we shouldnt forget that.

so wii will probably be down 2 million before it begins to start being up YoY in the 2nd half

With Mh3 it will be madness

Two different stances ;)

normally selling as much in your third year as in your second year would be pretty worrying. But if they can do it purely with software (and a bundle in japan) and no price cut id say that would be a success