The thing is, you have to keep in mind we're not looking at this from the standpoint of gamers, we have to look at this from the standpoint of publishers and developers that need to make money. Very very few publishers will take on a title that requires significant funding and resources if they think the return is going to be "just ok". They think in terms of minimum risk maximum profit. And there are no excuses for low numbers because excuses don't put your kids through college, money does. We can all say "Well, Mad world will probably only do 600k and we should think of that as a success", but they won't see that as success. They will look at Bayonetta or some other action game on the "core" consoles and say "they sold two million in 15 months, that is a success. How can we emulate that?".

@vagabond:

You can't just group games up like that just because they're the same genre. Blaming the Wii when MadWorld "flops" is silly, but it's going to happen. It's almost like the system is attracting all the niche, critically acclaimed games that also flopped on the PS2, which only further pushes this illusion of core games not selling on the Wii.

You put too much faith in the Wii core gamer. The PS2 gamers didn't pick up Okami, even though a similar high profile adventure game (Zelda) made 4 million without too much trouble. Remember God Hand? The game didn't pull numbers anywhere close to DMC's.

I know comparing Okami with Zelda might sound silly, but it sounds like you're doing the same with MadWorld and DMC. To be fair, I don't think Bayonetta is going to sell as much as you think it will, either. I love Clover/Platinum Games, but they're just too over the top for most people...

In order for these core games to really grab attention, it's going to have to pull amazing numbers. Conduit doing over 2mil, MadWorld 1mil within the year. Yeah, that probably isn't going to happen, unless Sega advertises the hell out of them, and both games turn out to be amazing - like, 90+ metacritic (possible with MadWorld, not so for The Conduit).

I predict it'll sell about 60% of the above numbers, which is fine for The Conduit devs (not sure about MadWorld). It probably isn't fine for this whole "core game push" movement, unfortunately. With the exception of Japan and a few western games here and there, I don't see the Wii situation changing too much.

"How well do the Conduit and Madworld have to do to send a message?"

Sell about 2-3 million copies or so.

Yeah, I know I'm being optimistic with mad world. I openly admit that I have my fingers crossed. Mentally I'm thinking the same thing everyone else is, but I also mentally know that just isn't good enough to make developers take note. So really it's more like I hope it will do a million, I expect a bit more than half that.

And I'm only grouping mad world with action beat 'em style games that are actually successful. Ones that had quality and a budget, and buzz, and succeeded. There are those like God Hand and NMH that don't succeed. But pointing to those isn't going to convince publishers to spend money on another high interest title, instead they will point right along with you and then send out Mysims Party.

Any game developers/publishers that look to Madworld to see if core games sell on the Wii are just about as smart as someone who looks at Okami sales on the PS2 to determine if core games can sell.

I'm pessimistic of the release of MadWorld (erm, besides the fact I'll get to play it!). I can already see it now: the game selling only slightly more than NMH, maybe tracking 50% higher. The response isn't going to be pretty.

I'm worried about The Conduit for a different reason - the game itself. If the game sucks, it isn't going to sell all that much. These are unproven developers, so I'm pretty skeptical (though I'll still probably pre-order). Oh, not to mention I've been wanting a good, build from the ground up FPS for the Wii.

This really is like, the Wii's ultimate test in the eyes of many. Really unfortunate the devs behind it are either unproven, or proven... at making great games that flop.

Eh, whatever, no use worrying. We'll see what happens. I hope I'm pleasantly surprised.

To send a message, they must clear at least a million and preferably over 1.5 million by the end of the year. Otherwise its not much of an incentive for other parties to take the risk and attempt to emulate their success.

I don't think Conduit can ever really turn heads. As developers to me seem more likely to compare it to other big shooters rather than wii FPS games.

If Madworld sells 1 million or more within its first year then that will probably turn heads. However I don't think it will get much more than 650k in a year.

Madworld's best chance is if the media pick this game up. If the media promotes this game as the most awful bloody game that has ever come to our beloved family wii and should be banned from all countries, then the game could take off and be surprising. Controversy helps any product.

I will put 2 numbers, the first is the answer to the opening (To send a message), the second to be a succes in economic terms (to the developer/publisher)

MadWorld : 800k : 400k

Conduit : 2 mill : 600k

But both games sells have to count with one condition they have to reach that number FAST!!! In 2 or 3 months, these are the kind of game where "some" legs don't work for the publisher, yes they will continue to make money for a long time, but they will not send the message.

I think the Conduit can do it, but madworld won't for a lot of reasons (graphics style, rating, genre, etc)

MS Olym. is a rare example. How did the other "casual" games go for Sega? Anything without Sonic or Mario in the title has not gone much more over a million.

5-6 mill is NOT a reasonable assessment for most games, other than sequels to previous huge successess