March 31 I believe. I know for sure it's late March.

"With the massive install base, anything below 1.5 million lifetime would be a massive failure". I think most people would agree that any game on any console that sold 1.5 million unit wouldnt be a massive failure, but a massive success.

I will also say that i highly doubt any 3rd party game will reach Mario Kart Wii or WiiFit status. I dont think 3rd parties go into Wii development thinking, 'lets sell 12 million copies of this'.

Counduit >= A Million
Madworld >= 500 K

If they sell better than casual games on the Wii it would send a message to publishers. Judging by the fact that My Fitness Coach, Carnival Funfair Games, Big Beach Sports and Sports Island seem to be doing well on the system (based on this week's UK chard) and are likely lower budget they have their work cut out for them.

The 360 has been saturated with FPS games since the system was released and yet there are still a pile of them coming this year and next.  The same can be said for the Wii, publishers will make what sells on the system and regardless of the claims of some people, casual games are selling a lot on the system (take a look at this week's UK charts for example).

Madworld is rated M17+ on Wii and will not sell as well as it could because of this. Anyone know what the rating will be for the Conduit? IF it is rated teen and IF Sega treats the game as if it were already a success, I can see it getting to 1 million in a month, two months top. Core type gamers that follow these web sites will get it day one. But, to be a success, you have to get the more casual gamer to take interest. You walk into a Best Buy / Future Shop and you see a large diplay with the Conduit for the Wii, you will be tempted to buy it right off (if you are a Wii owner). If there are two copies hidden behind a Petz game, chances are it will not sell. When COD WaW was released for Wii. I went to several game stores (in Canada) and could not find a copy, or even a place holder in the racks for the game. How do you expect to make big sales if there are no copies? Sega needs to treat this game as if it is already a success and it will do very very well. It is the same as books. When the new Stephen King book comes out, Stephen Kings fans are there and will ask for it if they do not see it. But people who just enjoy reading, will not necessarily look through all the stacks. Whatever is at the store entrance with a big display and lots of copies will sell just because. Now if the Conduit is rated M 17+, cut all the predictions in half. Of course, if every person that bought RE4 for the Wii bought the Conduit, then you would have 1.5 million easily.

The 360 is a system whos 'hardcore' fansbase is nothing but FPS fanatics. How many 360 owners do you know that only have one FPS?

On the Wii its different. Casual people that buy the casual games will just buy one. They dont buy 3-4 casual games. This 'casual' and 'hardcore' is really limiting what im tring to say, but people that liked CoD4 on 360 usually have Halo 3 as well as CoDWaW. Ive got no statistics to back this up, but a whole lot of those forum gamertag sigs all say the same thing.

 I agree and disagree with you there. Personaly, i would like to think Madworld wouldnt exist if it were thought as a T-rated game. But even then, there is a market for M-rated games on Wii, its just not awakened yet. On HD consoles, rating usually are no indication of success, hell if anything a M-rating will promotes the game as 'hardcore'. Ill go as far as saying half of Halos (im talking the whole series here) sold units went into the hands on underage kids. If its popular and they want it, they get it.

I agree that if you treat the game as a success, youll probably have a higher chance of it being a success. One example of this is Tenchu 4 (or Shadow Assasins). Ubisoft has no real marketing for the game (aside from limited viral marketing on sites where people already know of the game). Chances are that game will not tap into Wiis new demographic. Give a game a chance, however, advertise it, market it wisely, and at the very least the game gains popular awareness and a place in the open market. 

According to the Game database on this site 35 First person shooter games have been released for the XBox 360 since it was released, which is (roughly) 1 game per month and only 1/2 of those games have sold more than 500,000 copies.The XBox 360 is (probably) the highest concentration of the most dedicated FPS fans and it has difficulty supporting a FPS release every month. How likely is it that the Wii could support multiple mini-game collections being released in a month?

The fact is that if a game is the 4th best game (or worse) in a particular genre being released in a year the potential for great sales is limited because (no matter how dedicated the fanbase is) there is only so much demand for a particular genre. With that in mind, if you're going to produce additional mini-game collections your sales would probably be far better if you targeted the PS3 or XBox 360 because your game is far more likely to stand out.