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Forums - General - Academy Award Nominees Posted

Onyxmeth on 22 January 2009

Akuma come on. I know you were hoping that "trend" was going to lead more towards your side as opposed to sitting near the middle. Let me ask you though how many of the winners in the last five years swing my way? 3 of the past five Best Pictures have been won by films that have not led in nominations. Another was a tie and only once, five years ago has a movie with the most nominations won. You don't see a bit of a shift here? That's ok though. I'm going to look up how many former Best Pictures in the last 10 years got completely snubbed by the Globes and BAFTAs and I'll get back to you. Usually they're where Best Pictures build momentum, not lose it.

Edit: Yup, no film in the last 10 years that has won Best Picture has won nothing between the BAFTAS and the Globes. Can Benjamin Button break that trend? Sure. But I'm not the only one that understands that losing out completely at both isn't good for Academy momentum, and it's understood at the moment that despite having more noms, Slumdog Millionaire is the favorite to win. Also your trend of frontrunners is working more in my favor than yours. Being the front runner hasn't meant much of anything these last few years.

Double Edit: The only two Best Picture nominees that ended up winning but weren't the front runners(predicted by editors) going in were Crash and Shakespeare in Love. All 8 other years, the expected winners came up on top.



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.



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Signalstar on 22 January 2009

Best Supporting Actor is the best category. In Bruges deserves so much more as does Ralph Fiennes who was in so many great films this year.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo

Please Watch/Share this video so it gets shown in Hollywood.

--OkeyDokey-- on 22 January 2009

I thought RDJ was better in Iron Man than in Tropic Thunder, but atleast he was nominated for one of them.



akuma587 on 22 January 2009

The exceptions were based on the quirks of the individual movies as much as anything. The one in the lead the year The Departed won was Dreamgirls. Over 3 of the nominations were for songs. It had very few in major categories.

Brokeback not getting it was likely related to the whole gay controversy.

The Aviator was the biggest fluke out of all the exceptions I would say based on the history.

Also, show me how many movies have been nominated for as many Oscars as Benjamin Button that did not get the Oscar. I've seen movies with 11 nominations lose it, but not 13.

The Golden Globes have been a mediocre indicator recently. From 1997-2007, only 4 out of 10 of the Golden Globe Best Picture winners won the Academy Award. The BAFTA has only predicted 4 out of 10 (only 2 of which when the BAFTA's were moved before the Oscars, they used to be after) as well in the same time period. Not to mention there are at least 5 out of 10 years, including 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, and 2002 that neither the BAFTAs or the Golden Globes picked the same movie as the Academy. So if anything, that indicator is also becoming less reliable.

So I guess we can all just say that the indicators are mixed, although I still stand by the fact that getting 13 nominations is historically very strong evidence of a likely win.

Slumdog has a slight lead in the critical reception category. But personally I don't think it is the kind of movie the Academy usually goes for when choosing Best Picture. Benjamin Button did better in the box office receipts category by a good margin, so that occasionally helps.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

akuma587 on 22 January 2009
Onyxmeth said:

Akuma come on. I know you were hoping that "trend" was going to lead more towards your side as opposed to sitting near the middle. Let me ask you though how many of the winners in the last five years swing my way? 3 of the past five Best Pictures have been won by films that have not led in nominations. Another was a tie and only once, five years ago has a movie with the most nominations won. You don't see a bit of a shift here? That's ok though. I'm going to look up how many former Best Pictures in the last 10 years got completely snubbed by the Globes and BAFTAs and I'll get back to you. Usually they're where Best Pictures build momentum, not lose it.

Edit: Yup, no film in the last 10 years that has won Best Picture has won nothing between the BAFTAS and the Globes. Can Benjamin Button break that trend? Sure. But I'm not the only one that understands that losing out completely at both isn't good for Academy momentum, and it's understood at the moment that despite having more noms, Slumdog Millionaire is the favorite to win. Also your trend of frontrunners is working more in my favor than yours. Being the front runner hasn't meant much of anything these last few years.

Double Edit: The only two Best Picture nominees that ended up winning but weren't the front runners(predicted by editors) going in were Crash and Shakespeare in Love. All 8 other years, the expected winners came up on top.

Really?  Where are you getting your information.  I've found the exact opposite.  There were 5 out of 10 in the last ten years that won neither award, 4 of which were very recent:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Globe_Award_for_Best_Motion_Picture_-_Drama

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAFTA_Award_for_Best_Film

Slumdog has the edge critically, but this is more difficult to determine than any of the other criteria out there.  What source are you using to determine what was the critical favorite in years past?



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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Onyxmeth on 22 January 2009
akuma587 said:

The exceptions were based on the quirks of the individual movies as much as anything. The one in the lead the year The Departed won was Dreamgirls. Over 3 of the nominations were for songs. It had very few in major categories.

Brokeback not getting it was likely related to the whole gay controversy.

The Aviator was the biggest fluke out of all the exceptions I would say based on the history.

Also, show me how many movies have been nominated for as many Oscars as Benjamin Button that did not get the Oscar. I've seen movies with 11 nominations lose it, but not 13.

I don't see how you are using the BAFTA's as an example since they haven't happened yet. The Golden Globes have been a mediocre indicator recently. From 1997-2007, only 4 out of 10 of the Golden Globe Best Picture winners won the Academy Award. The BAFTA has only predicted 4 out of 10 as well in the same time period. Not to mention there are at least 5 out of 10 years, including 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, and 2002 that neither the BAFTAs or the Golden Globes picked the same movie as the Academy. So if anything, that indicator is also becoming less reliable.

So I guess we can all just say that the indicators are mixed, although I still stand by the fact that getting 13 nominations is historically very strong evidence of a likely win.

Slumdog has a slight lead in the critical reception category. But personally I don't think it is the kind of movie the Academy usually goes for when choosing Best Picture. Benjamin Button did better in the box office receipts category by a good margin, so that occasionally helps.

What you need to ask also is, when was the last time a 13-time nominated film has come in as the underdog? Titanic sure wasn't. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King sure wasn't. But if you must know The Fellowship of the Ring came in at 13 nominations as an underdog and lost Best Picture, so there's your example. You can say that it doesn't count because it's LOTR but we all know the third film won, and we know the Academy is willing to give more than one in a series the Best Picture if we look at The Godfather.

My apologies about BAFTA. I don't know why I said that. I meant the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards. Slumdog won there and they have guessed Best Picture correctly 7/10 last years. The only ones they guessed wrong were the two underdog victories of Shakespeare in Love and Crash and they guessed Sideways over Million Dollar Baby which was just incorrect. Even when they got those wrong though, they still gave out some other awards to the eventual Best Picture winner. None were shut out of both the Broadcast Critics and Globes the way Benjamin Button has been.

13 nominations is historically a good way to win when you're also the front runner, which is almost always the case. It happens to not be the case this time. Slumdog is the front runner. Can Benjamin Button win as an underdog? Absolutely. What I don't get is your unwillingness to acknowledge that it's in a losing situation currently regardless of it's number of nominations.

 



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.



okr on 22 January 2009

The most interesting question to me: Will Meryl Streep receive her 3rd one with her 15th nomination more than 25 years after her last win or will Kate Winslet receive her 1st one with her 6th nomination?

My guess: Kate.



akuma587 on 22 January 2009
Onyxmeth said:

What you need to ask also is, when was the last time a 13-time nominated film has come in as the underdog? Titanic sure wasn't. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King sure wasn't. But if you must know The Fellowship of the Ring came in at 13 nominations as an underdog and lost Best Picture, so there's your example. You can say that it doesn't count because it's LOTR but we all know the third film won, and we know the Academy is willing to give more than one in a series the Best Picture if we look at The Godfather.

My apologies about BAFTA. I don't know why I said that. I meant the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards. Slumdog won there and they have guessed Best Picture correctly 7/10 last years. The only ones they guessed wrong were the two underdog victories of Shakespeare in Love and Crash and they guessed Sideways over Million Dollar Baby which was just incorrect. Even when they got those wrong though, they still gave out some other awards to the eventual Best Picture winner. None were shut out of both the Broadcast Critics and Globes the way Benjamin Button has been.

13 nominations is historically a good way to win when you're also the front runner, which is almost always the case. It happens to not be the case this time. Slumdog is the front runner. Can Benjamin Button win as an underdog? Absolutely. What I don't get is your unwillingness to acknowledge that it's in a losing situation currently regardless of it's number of nominations.

 

It will be close, I admit, but I don't see the strong evidence that you do that Slumdog is the frontrunner.  I'd be more inclined to agree if I saw some or you were more specific on what you were basing that assumption on.

 

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

FaRmLaNd on 22 January 2009

I don't think finchers latest will win (even though I'd love for it to win).



Onyxmeth on 22 January 2009

 

akuma587 said:

It will be close, I admit, but I don't see the strong evidence that you do that Slumdog is the frontrunner.  I'd be more inclined to agree if I saw some or you were more specific on what you were basing that assumption on.

 

 

Here's Benjamin Button's awards from Wiki. If it's incomplete, feel free to fill something in.

Top ten lists

The film appeared on many critics' top ten lists of the best films of 2008.[36]

Awards and honors

2009 Academy AwardsTBA February 22, 2009

  • Nominated: Best Picture
  • Nominated: Best Director: David Fincher
  • Nominated: Best Actor: Brad Pitt
  • Nominated: Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson
  • Nominated: Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Roth
  • Nominated: Best Film Editing
  • Nominated: Best Cinematography
  • Nominated: Best Art Direction
  • Nominated: Best Costume Design
  • Nominated: Best Makeup
  • Nominated: Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat
  • Nominated: Best Sound Mixing
  • Nominated: Best Visual Effects

2009 British Academy of Film and Television Arts

Award Category Recipient Result
American Society of Cinematographers[40] Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography in Theatrical Releases Claudio Miranda Nominated
Austin Film Critics Association[41] Best Supporting Actress Taraji P. Henson Won
Broadcast Film Critics[42] Best Film Nominated
Best Actor Brad Pitt Nominated
Best Actress Cate Blanchett Nominated
Broadcast Film Critics Association Award for Best Director David Fincher Nominated
Best Supporting Actress Taraji P. Henson Nominated
Best Cast Nominated
BFCA Critics' Choice Award for Best Writer Eric Roth Nominated
Best Composer Alexandre Desplat Nominated
Houston Film Critics Association[43] Best Film Won
Best Cinematography Claudio Miranda Won
Golden Globe Awards Best Motion Picture Drama Nominated
Best Actor - Motion Picture Drama Brad Pitt Nominated
Best Director - Motion Picture David Fincher Nominated
Best Screenplay Eric Roth Nominated
Best Original Score Alexandre Desplat Nominated
National Board of Review[42][44] National Board of Review: Top Ten Films
Best Director David Fincher Won
Best Adapted Screenplay Eric Roth Won
Satellite Awards Best Adapted Screenplay Eric Roth and Robin Swicord Nominated
Best Art Direction and Production Design Donald Graham Burt and Tom Reta Nominated
Best Cinematography Claudio Miranda Nominated
Best Costume Design Jacqueline West Nominated
St. Louis Gateway Film Critics Association Awards[45] Best Film Won
Vancouver Film Critics Circle Awards[46] Best Director David Fincher Won
Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association Best Art Direction Won


Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.