Academy Award Nominees Posted

[Onyxmeth]

akuma587 said:

The exceptions were based on the quirks of the individual movies as much as anything. The one in the lead the year The Departed won was Dreamgirls. Over 3 of the nominations were for songs. It had very few in major categories.

Brokeback not getting it was likely related to the whole gay controversy.

The Aviator was the biggest fluke out of all the exceptions I would say based on the history.

Also, show me how many movies have been nominated for as many Oscars as Benjamin Button that did not get the Oscar. I've seen movies with 11 nominations lose it, but not 13.

I don't see how you are using the BAFTA's as an example since they haven't happened yet. The Golden Globes have been a mediocre indicator recently. From 1997-2007, only 4 out of 10 of the Golden Globe Best Picture winners won the Academy Award. The BAFTA has only predicted 4 out of 10 as well in the same time period. Not to mention there are at least 5 out of 10 years, including 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, and 2002 that neither the BAFTAs or the Golden Globes picked the same movie as the Academy. So if anything, that indicator is also becoming less reliable.

So I guess we can all just say that the indicators are mixed, although I still stand by the fact that getting 13 nominations is historically very strong evidence of a likely win.

Slumdog has a slight lead in the critical reception category. But personally I don't think it is the kind of movie the Academy usually goes for when choosing Best Picture. Benjamin Button did better in the box office receipts category by a good margin, so that occasionally helps.

What you need to ask also is, when was the last time a 13-time nominated film has come in as the underdog? Titanic sure wasn't. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King sure wasn't. But if you must know The Fellowship of the Ring came in at 13 nominations as an underdog and lost Best Picture, so there's your example. You can say that it doesn't count because it's LOTR but we all know the third film won, and we know the Academy is willing to give more than one in a series the Best Picture if we look at The Godfather.

My apologies about BAFTA. I don't know why I said that. I meant the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards. Slumdog won there and they have guessed Best Picture correctly 7/10 last years. The only ones they guessed wrong were the two underdog victories of Shakespeare in Love and Crash and they guessed Sideways over Million Dollar Baby which was just incorrect. Even when they got those wrong though, they still gave out some other awards to the eventual Best Picture winner. None were shut out of both the Broadcast Critics and Globes the way Benjamin Button has been.

13 nominations is historically a good way to win when you're also the front runner, which is almost always the case. It happens to not be the case this time. Slumdog is the front runner. Can Benjamin Button win as an underdog? Absolutely. What I don't get is your unwillingness to acknowledge that it's in a losing situation currently regardless of it's number of nominations.