The exceptions were based on the quirks of the individual movies as much as anything. The one in the lead the year The Departed won was Dreamgirls. Over 3 of the nominations were for songs. It had very few in major categories.
Brokeback not getting it was likely related to the whole gay controversy.
The Aviator was the biggest fluke out of all the exceptions I would say based on the history.
Also, show me how many movies have been nominated for as many Oscars as Benjamin Button that did not get the Oscar. I've seen movies with 11 nominations lose it, but not 13.
The Golden Globes have been a mediocre indicator recently. From 1997-2007, only 4 out of 10 of the Golden Globe Best Picture winners won the Academy Award. The BAFTA has only predicted 4 out of 10 (only 2 of which when the BAFTA's were moved before the Oscars, they used to be after) as well in the same time period. Not to mention there are at least 5 out of 10 years, including 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, and 2002 that neither the BAFTAs or the Golden Globes picked the same movie as the Academy. So if anything, that indicator is also becoming less reliable.
So I guess we can all just say that the indicators are mixed, although I still stand by the fact that getting 13 nominations is historically very strong evidence of a likely win.
Slumdog has a slight lead in the critical reception category. But personally I don't think it is the kind of movie the Academy usually goes for when choosing Best Picture. Benjamin Button did better in the box office receipts category by a good margin, so that occasionally helps.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
