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Forums - Sales - NA Sales UP! -- Boring days BEGIN!

bigjon on 17 January 2009
NJ5 said:

@bigjon: I think YoY is quite useful for any period of a month or more, the holidays definitely apply. Why do you think companies always do YoY comparisons on each quarter?

I cant see why it is so hard for you all to believe it is selling steady?


It is not selling steady as you can see in the territory-per-territory comparison (even accounting for the 2-day difference, it's still noticeably down in Others). Of course the next few weeks will also be telling.

 

 

 yes yoy is good for evaluation, but not good for estimation or prediction, like I say to many factors change.

NOW I am reffering to yoy for indvidual systems, yoy for the aggregate market works fine for the most part for prediction (although major macroeconomic changes could alter things, like say a financial crisis, or terrorist attacks or something).

Things work for the most part Like, saying software will double, oct to nov, then from nov to dec. But that does not work as well for (or at all for smaller units).



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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Lolcislaw on 17 January 2009

Boring numbers but still all right, Wii will be able to sell 1m + in January which is very solid, 360 and PS3 were able to pull off some decent numbers as well.

DS well it sold ridicilously well in December, so i dont think the demand is not there, remember it needs to be re stocked in many places.



FishyJoe on 17 January 2009

YOY the Wii is up over 300%. Does that mean the Wii is going to sell 75 million in 2009?



NJ5 on 17 January 2009
bigjon said:
NJ5 said:

@bigjon: I think YoY is quite useful for any period of a month or more, the holidays definitely apply. Why do you think companies always do YoY comparisons on each quarter?

I cant see why it is so hard for you all to believe it is selling steady?


It is not selling steady as you can see in the territory-per-territory comparison (even accounting for the 2-day difference, it's still noticeably down in Others). Of course the next few weeks will also be telling.

 

 

 yes yoy is good for evaluation, but not good for estimation or prediction, like I say to many factors change.

NOW I am reffering to yoy for indvidual systems, yoy for the aggregate market works fine for the most part for prediction (although major macroeconomic changes could alter things, like say a financial crisis, or terrorist attacks or something).

Things work for the most part Like, saying software will double, oct to nov, then from nov to dec. But that does not work as well for (or at all for smaller units).

I don't think anyone is using it for predictions, except perhaps to say that PS3 sales should be down YoY since they were significantly down during the holidays.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

alfredofroylan on 17 January 2009

One of my co-workers asked me about this "Awesome DS with Camera" and if it's good to wait for the release or just buy a regular DS. I never thought that somebody would say that a "DS with Camera" will be considered awesome.



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darthdevidem01 on 17 January 2009

@alfred

thank you for giving us the first actually sensible reason for low DS sales



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

bigjon on 17 January 2009
NJ5 said:
bigjon said:
NJ5 said:

@bigjon: I think YoY is quite useful for any period of a month or more, the holidays definitely apply. Why do you think companies always do YoY comparisons on each quarter?

I cant see why it is so hard for you all to believe it is selling steady?


It is not selling steady as you can see in the territory-per-territory comparison (even accounting for the 2-day difference, it's still noticeably down in Others). Of course the next few weeks will also be telling.

 

 

 yes yoy is good for evaluation, but not good for estimation or prediction, like I say to many factors change.

NOW I am reffering to yoy for indvidual systems, yoy for the aggregate market works fine for the most part for prediction (although major macroeconomic changes could alter things, like say a financial crisis, or terrorist attacks or something).

Things work for the most part Like, saying software will double, oct to nov, then from nov to dec. But that does not work as well for (or at all for smaller units).

I don't think anyone is using it for predictions, except perhaps to say that PS3 sales should be down YoY since they were significantly down during the holidays.

 

in a sense you are, people are predicting where the PS3 "should" be.

I am not saying those numbers are right per say, but I was just trying to make the point (initially) that not all system see the same drops % wise (as a few indicated earlier). Now I am trying to help people avoid using year over year to say where something should be today.

One thing to consider, also one factor different for the PS3 this year (another reason why yoy is faulty) is that last year it got a bigger holiday boost mucg like the 360 did this year from a price reduction. There was none of that this year. That alone makes it hard to impossible to predict what the PS3 will do this year (based on yoy).

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

megaman79 on 17 January 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
@alfred

thank you for giving us the first actually sensible reason for low DS sales

 

Wrong, after 3 million in Dec did every person just get the rumoured April release date email notice?

Its supplies. Infact maybe Nintendo is releasing in april and they are trying to get rid of old stock in the US prior to release.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

NJ5 on 17 January 2009
bigjon said:

in a sense you are, people are predicting where the PS3 "should" be.

I am not saying those numbers are right per say, but I was just trying to make the point (initially) that not all system see the same drops % wise (as a few indicated earlier). Now I am trying to help people avoid using year over year to say where something should be today.

One thing to consider, also one factor different for the PS3 this year (another reason why yoy is faulty) is that last year it got a bigger holiday boost mucg like the 360 did this year from a price reduction. There was none of that this year. That alone makes it hard to impossible to predict what the PS3 will do this year (based on yoy).

 

Yes, there are more factors, although YoY helps a lot in predictions... It's a baseline for expectations, upon which you add the differences you can see during 2009. Now what are those differences from early 2008 to early 2009?

On the positive side, I can see:

- The PS3 has more games. (anything else?)

On the negative side, I can see:

- The recession making PS3's price seem worse

- The $400 price has been active for one more year

- Some of the competition (360) is cheaper

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Barozi on 17 January 2009
megaman79 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
@alfred

thank you for giving us the first actually sensible reason for low DS sales

Wrong, after 3 million in Dec did every person just get the rumoured April release date email notice?

Its supplies. Infact maybe Nintendo is releasing in april and they are trying to get rid of old stock in the US prior to release.

He didn't say "the true reason", he said: "the first actually sensible reason"

So he isn't wrong.