360 as we know has currently shipped 28 million. Topping Xbox'ss 25m already. But where can it end up?


60, 70, even 80 million seem very possible x while 40, even 50 million is an absolute lock. Consider they just got done with their best year ever, shipponXboxn3Xboxuch depends onXboxn Xbox 720 ships as well. I happen to think Fall 2k11 at the earliest. So that would mean 360 has all 09,  010, and most 011 in full force. So I think at least 25m more (10+10+5)=53m, PLUS any sales after 720 is released, which could easily be 10m or more, putting 360 at 60-70m.


A lot depends on these factors:


-Does 360 keep selling well or even accelerating sales as it's price drops, meaning 10+m/year, or even breaking out and doing much bigger numbers such as 12m or 15m/year as it reaches PS2-like critical mass and price points?

-Rather, does it begin to age next to PS3, drop below 10m/year and tail off (a billion PS3 fanboys crave this outcome).

-When does Xbox 720 come out? Fall 09 (very unlikely) 010, 011 (my pick) or even 012?

-Once it's succesor comes out, how much of a PS2 style long tail does 360 enjoy?

One things for sure, it has certainly exceeded my expectations as I originally expected it to ship 40m tops.

I don't know... Microsoft seams to want to ride this thing out... so I think it'll probably have a long life... 7-10 years depending on the next gen's launch... I think that'll be in 12 myself. That'll give the 360 an long life without a successor

Sell on par with the original Playstation? I highly doubt it? But the 75 million that it's likely to reach will be a massive step for Microsoft, second-place consoles, and the industry in general.

I'm guessing half that. Although as Cueil stated before, Microsoft does seem to want to ride it out as long as possible. With NXE, microsoft has stated repeatedly that they can continue to upgrade the software, so long as the hardware doesn't get too far outdated. I can see them having a very long life with the 360, and a long life will steady sales. Well, that is how the turtle beat the rabbit after all.

It won't break the 50M! It's already 3 years old.

XD which means it's sold ~9.6 million per year.  In two years of flat sales (they won't be--they'll only rise as the Pro and Elite get cheaper and many new games come out), it'll be almost there.  This gen is projected to last at least four more years.

So: lol

There's a few things within Microsoft's power they can do to help generate a new 'lease on life' for the 360, whether or not they're deemed economically feasible/in the best interests for the company could be another thing.

For example they could release a new sku with an internal BD and undercut the cheapest Playstation sku with it. They could release a motion controller and a new range of games to utilise it - call it 'Xbox Active' or 'Xbox Kids'. They could add more services/features to Live such as IPTV or add the Zune marketplace so you can download songs or even add Skype so you can utilise the headset and Vision camera to talk to people on their computers...one of these features probably isn't enough to sway someone, but collectively??

Along with the obvious 'slim' model release and price cut effects - I think if they can get the premium 'slim' model down to the PS2-like price of $129 at the end of it's life then that should keep sales steady as long as the software support is there, well into the successor's life. The hugely growing revenue generated from LIVE subscriptions and content downloads should prolong it's life as well.

XBox 360 should sell a maximum of 60 to 70 million consoles by the end of the console generation in 3 or 4 years time.

PS3 should sell a maximum of 60 to 70 million consoles by the end of the console generation in 3 or 4 years time.

Wii will continue to sell long after the XBox 360 and PS3 have stopped selling. Wii will sell anywhere between 200 to 300 million consoles when it stops selling. I expect Wii to sell around double the amount of PS3 and finish on 260 million consoles.

XBox 360 or PS3 have no chance of even getting close to 100 million consoles sold. They will both be closer to 50 million consoles sold than 100 million consoles sold.

How is breaking 80 million possible?

That would require a massive surge in sales.

I'm expecting around 65 million by the end of the gen.

50 million is about where it will end up because Gears 3 will be on Nextbox and most of the 360 fans will follow.