It's got nuffin to do with games. It didn't in 2007 nor in 2008, and besides both HD consoles have a huge library of great games. After all, we're in the middle of a generation already.
It all comes down to the size of price drop(s).
I still believe PS3 will cost $299 in 2009. Perhaps with a split price drop, $50 in April and another $50 for Holidays. In that case Sony will win 2009 easili.
But if drop is only $50 in 2009 the X360 will win of course.