Sony gives shipped numbers, unless ioi changes it, it is at 123 million

Well, that's cheating. A 52 million range?

And you expect the NextBox to come out before November 2010?

2

While I am pretty sure I have told you this at least twice before (perhaps not directly, but I have explained it in many threads that you were part of)

Here we go.

The claim that the PS2 had passed 140 million IS A LIE, or at best a huge mistake. David Reeves was I believe the purpetrator of that falsification, and the truth is that as of the end of March 2008 the PS2 was just passing 130 million consoles according to the sum of Sony's fiscal statements.

There is a slight problem with those fiscal statements unfortunately, in that before March 2007 Sony reported produced consoles, since which they have been reporting sales to retail. The problem with that lies in the fact that produced will always stay 1-2 million ahead of the shipped (sold to retail) figure because of course they need to be produced before they can get to the shops. Thus the problem is that when you add together the produced figure from launch to March 2007 with the shipped figures thereafter, you are actually counting at least 1 million consoles twice. That is why the two different types of figures are kept seperate on the website Sony has to show shipments.

Admitedly with such huge figures, a 1-2 million difference isn't that importan for the PS2, as all it means is it had to wait 2-3 extra months to pass 130 million.... which it has now done. The figure for the PS2 as of the end of September is 117.89 million produced consoles from before March 2007, plus 17.74 million shipped since then.

This comes to 135.63 million which should in reality be taken down 1-2 million so as not to count consoles twice... to somewhere between 133.63 - 134.63 million.

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There is however an additional problem with using the produced consoles figure from before March 2007, because that figure could (we don't know for sure, but it is likely) also include PS2s that have not actually been shipped to retail, but were sent out by Sony as replacements to faulty consoles, which for the PS2 will be quite a large amount.... I would estimate at least 15 million consoles, most from launch years (2000-2001) will have broken, some of those owners may have not bothered to replace it, some may have replaced it from a store, but of those who sent it in to Sony, I would guess a good chunk of them were sent replacement PS2s (I think more than half would have had PS2s repaired rather than replaced though) And I will admit this is pure guesswork, but I highly doubt less than 5 million PS2s have been sent out as replacements.... a figure that should really be taken off the PS2 total shipped figure, bringing it down to about 128-129 million as of the end of September.

      I expect the next xbox to come  out prior to Gears 3.  It would be a big surprise if it was announced at the GDC that should be coming up in about eight weeks or so from now (I really haven't looked up its date, but it seems like the place where MS likes to make their big announcements), but I think it won't be released any later than November 2010.  Of course there could be three years between Gears 2 and 3 like there was between Halo 2 and 3, so I guess Gears 3 could be released in 2011 and maybe the next xbox at the same time.  If the next xbox comes out November 2011, then another 10 million should probably be added to my 360 number.

     One thing  I think this will really depend upon though is how certain games being released this year fare in sales and reviews.  If Halo Wars, Star Ocean 4, and Alan Wake come out to rave reviews and tremendous sales, the lifespan of the 360 would be lengthened to 2011; however, if some of these key games follow the patterns of some of the ones from last year like Ninja Gaiden II, Too Human, etc, then you would expect a shorter 360 lifespan.

Any prediction below 50 million lifetime sales of PS3 is insane.

It's only been out 2 years, and that's only a 1/3 of the probably 6 years until the PS4 is released. In 2 years it's sold almost 20 mill, so in 6 years it should sell 3x20 mill = 60 million. Add to that some sales beyond 2012, at least 5 million, and we've easily got 65 million PS3s.

 Consoles often decline in sales after a few years, and PS4 will be out before 2012

ps3 will only go up because its still so expnesive. also what do you mean ps4 WILL be out before 2012? you dont know that. my prediction for ps3 is that at the least it will sell 60 million.  its done 20 million in 2years( not even 2 years in europe yet) and im expecting sales to rise like crazy in the next 2 years. especially if there is a worldwide price cut.

 Unlikely, as 360 will just drop prices undercutting it again

LOL