The Nintendo Uus

A year ago I was thinking the Uus would be out 2010. I fully expected Wii demand to let up, prices to drop, and an announcement made in late 2009. Since then, Wii dominance has not only continued, it has increased. It is unlikely to see its first price drop until late 2009 at the earliest, and with the WiiMotion Plus the waggle gimmick will likely get a second wind. We may get a WiiHD at some point, or some value added Wii, but the soonest we can expect the Uus is 2011.

They have in the past released incremental updates on their consoles, and they could do it again. Consider the upgrade from Gameboy -> Gameboy Colour, they released one well in the prime of the other and they could do it again with Wii HD. They don't need to catch up with the Xbox 360/PS3, they just need to bump up the rendering resolution to 720P and support some new interfaces like HDMI and surround sound. So they could easily release something in late 2010 and simply do a slow transition towards the new format. They would not make it much more powerful than the Wii, they don't want developers to immediately cease development on the Wii to focus on the Wii HD.

The XBox 720

Microsoft is in a weird position. It is suceeding more through Sony's blunder's than their own brilliance. They're doing well enough, but still being lapped by the Wii. The PS3's failure has given Microsoft a grace period - there's no way that Sony moves the PS4 to market before they've fixed the PS3 bleeding. No doubt MS wants to be first to market again, but not at the expense of past mistakes - faulty hardware, and being unprepared for the waggle revolution. They are going to respond to the Wii's success and attempt to make a gaming console that draws both casual and core gamers. They will no doubt copy the Wiimote (or Wiimote plus), but won't want to settle for being a copycat. They will want to best Nintendo at their own game and come up with a catchy innovation of their own. They also have to know Sony will not make the same mistakes as last time, and Sony is still too close in weekly sales for MS to assume they have a real advantage next gen. They don't want to release too soon and have Sony "Dreamcast" them. My guess is their original plan was to release in 2011, but may hold off until 2012, which will almost certainly allow them to see most of Nintendo's cards and still likely get a jump on the PS4.

I think Microsoft will aim to have the most powerful console in the next generation. They are supporting two platforms, not one between PC gaming and console gaming and the high end on the PC needs a boost from a console just as much as a console needs the support of PC developers. They are also the only console manufacturer who will be willing to take a loss on a console in the next generation because they have the Live revenue streams and massive cash reserves. Its the last time a console manufacturer could spend himself to victory and I predict they will take advantage of it.

This generation is a base for the next generation for them. Their attempts at the casual market in this generation are as much aimed at the next as it is for this. They are turning Xbox Live into a social network, like how Blizzard works with WoW so they can ensure that when the next console comes around they have a huge stable of people who will "jump in". Between MSN messenger, Live, Netflix and that new gameshow endeaver and the voice communication online they will have a stable pool of 20,000,000 users who will likely buy a Microsoft console next generation above all others.

They are the keystone to the adoption of a single GPGPU standard, so litterally Nvidia, AMD, and Intel and IBM will be beating down their door and offering them hardware on the cheap to achieve that standard. Archicturally they could choose anything from a Cell from IBM, Larrabee from Intel, r9xx from AMD, or GT4xx from Nvidia. From the perspective of achieving this standard they will be pushed to release earlier rather than later so I would pick 20010-2011 as their release dates. They are the kingmakers in the fastest growing field of computing and its going to give them a lot of bargaining power.

The Playstaion Four

Based on Sony's past statements, I assume the PS3 plan was similar to the PSX and PS2 plan - release the console, wait 6 years, release new console and let old console coast for another 3-4 years. That means Sony's plan would have been to release the PS4 in 2012. I'm not sure they can do that. Dropping out early, with a 2011 release, would be a huge risk. They'd be firesaling PS3's, and run a real risk of releasing the next Dreamcast. They need to reestablish their bona fides, and that won't be done by bailing out early. At best, the PS3 will reach mass market price ($199) in 2010, maybe even 2011. They don't want to launch a new console at that point.  Even 2012 could be stepping on the PS3's toes, and Sony really wants to make up the revenue it lost in the early half of the PS3's life. That means letting the PS3 coast for a year or two. However, that's thinking in a vaccuum. While Sony waits, Nintendo and Microsoft will almost surely be getting their consoles out, and that means Sony needs to make the PS4 truly fantastic (from the POV of a typical consumer, not a rabid tech head) or risk getting crowded out of the market fast.  

Sony can't release a next generation console too quickly, they need to consolodate their position and ensure that their 1st party developers are profitable for them before they can move onto another generation or the weight will quickly drag them down.

What makes you think the current economy will still be the current exconomy in 2 years?