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Forums - Sales Discussion - On The Verge of A Gaming Crash? Without Nintendo....

mrstickball on 18 December 2008
disolitude said:

You are missing the point of your own topic.

The argument is that nintendo is part of the cause the industry is struggling as it doesn't offer easy porting for games across all 3 platforms due to much worse specs, yet Wii doesn't sell enough software to justify primary development for the big budget titles.

Look at how long its taking Capcom to port Dead Rising to the Wii...and look at the results.

If they had included better specs in their system and were charging the same as they are now, decreasing their massive hardware profits by a small margin...the ports would be much easier, more common and Wii primary development with upscaled HD ports would make sense.

Yet another agreement from me :)

That's kind of the issue we're seeing. The reason so many games are multiplat between the X360 and PS3 is that both systems offer very similar environments between eachother - Although the coding is different between the consoles, you don't have to remove shaders, or core components from the game to make it work on the other...They are similar beasts.

But with the Wii it's a different ball game. It's not just textures you have to downsample, it's entire games because not everything done onscreen on a X360 or PS3 game can be done on a Wii...Which, as you said, Dead Rising is a great example. It's not just a X360 port. It's re-doing the entire game to work on Wii hardware...Which costs a lot more money than a traditional port (which, as far as I know costs about 1/10th of the budget of a given game).

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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Gamerace on 18 December 2008
mrstickball said:
disolitude said:
Gamerace said:
disolitude said:
Wii games cost 10-20 dolalrs less than HD games out of the gate. Considering the licensing fees and shipping/packaging costs are the same no matter which platform you publish for one can asume that HD consoles are getting the developer/publisher atleast 10 dollars more for each copy sold.

If a game sells 500K on 360 and 500K on the Wii, the 360 version should logically net 5 million dollars more.

I am not in the industry so I can't really argue this point any better but this can be one of the reasons publishers arent doing more Wii developed games.

According to indsutry analysts, they project a average Wii game makes a profit at 250k but an average HD needs to sell 1m to start  clearing a profit.   Therefore 500k on Wii is a huge profit generator but 500k on 360 is a huge loss.

 

Can you post me a link for this. I heard different numbers (200K vs 500K) and they are like that only because they used a Wii game that costs5 million while 360 one cost 25...

 

Seconded. I'd like a link from these 'industry analysts'. Everything I've seen puts the numbers much closer to 250-300k for the Wii and 350-600k for the X360/PS3 (with the X360 being at the lower end of that number).

 

Can't find it now.  Did find this:

As for this latest realigning, money talks (innovation walks) and you have to assume someone simply woke up and smelled the honey pot. According to chairman and CEO of Foundation 9 Entertaiment Jon Goldman, "Publishers are saying: Instead of spending $15 million or $20 million on one PS3 game, come back to me with five or six Wii pitches." That's because (a) games take far less time to create on the Wii -- 12 months versus two to three years for the competition, (b) it costs roughly $5 million per game in development scratch versus $10 to $20 million for a typical Xbox 360 or PS3 game, and the Wii has been outselling every system except its own handheld DS Lite since November 2006, i.e. some eight or so solid months of market growth.

So 5m vs up to 20m and in some cases 20m (Mario) vs 100m (GTA).   No question Wii development is signifigantly cheaper. 

 



 

bigjon on 18 December 2008
mrstickball said:
bigjon said:
disolitude said:
I don't think nintendo needs to justify charging as much for their console. I mean, this whole scenario of - lose money on a console, make it on software- doesnt really work for smaller hardware company like nintendo.

While I do think it would have been better for everyone if they had something that was atleast comparible in spec to 360 as then most of the ports would be downscaled 360 ports rather than upscaled ps2 ports.

Does not seem to be working too well for Sony or MS right now either.

 

Last I checked, consumers were getting the developed games on the X360/PS3 and the Wii was getting crappy, inferior ports that Wii fans are always clamoring about. Disolitude is 100% right in his argument: If the Wii had a bit more horsepower, Wii fans would be getting something close to the X360, but instead they're getting something close to the PS2.

 

ok, know this about me, I to enjoy a HD game with stunning visuals, but I also love Wii material. For me, the Wii is really my second console (very close second). but I am talking about industry wide choices. The reason that the Wii has sucky ports is because of the stupid devs. It is cyclical.

Core gamers know the wii ports suck, and dont buy them, dev therefor spend less on Wii ports ensuring their suckyness. Recent comments lead me to believe this is changing.

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

mrstickball on 18 December 2008

Khuutra said:
mrstickball, isn't the Wii version of The Force Unleashed outselling both of the other versions on a weekly basis and is, in fact, about to pass up the PS3 version in lifetime sales?

Just to point that out.

And no, Zack and Wiki and No More Heroes were not big-budget. They were anything but. They also made tidy profits.

Actually, no. The X360 vesion of TFU outsold the Wii version last week.

Here are the totals from VGC Worldwide:

5
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
LucasArts 12 44,581 1,328,066
6
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
LucasArts 12 43,164 826,372
9
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
LucasArts 12 32,727 899,154

And need I remind you that the Wii has outsold both consoles in the respective markets (NA and PAL) where this game was huge? TFU is one of the better sellers for the Wii, but it still is down ~500,000 units versus the X360 and ~70,000 on the PS3 (although it's obvious it'll pass the PS3). Is that considered 'good' for a console that has well over twice the install base of the PS3?

 

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Shadowblind on 18 December 2008
Gamerace said:
mrstickball said:
disolitude said:
Gamerace said:
disolitude said:
Wii games cost 10-20 dolalrs less than HD games out of the gate. Considering the licensing fees and shipping/packaging costs are the same no matter which platform you publish for one can asume that HD consoles are getting the developer/publisher atleast 10 dollars more for each copy sold.

If a game sells 500K on 360 and 500K on the Wii, the 360 version should logically net 5 million dollars more.

I am not in the industry so I can't really argue this point any better but this can be one of the reasons publishers arent doing more Wii developed games.

According to indsutry analysts, they project a average Wii game makes a profit at 250k but an average HD needs to sell 1m to start  clearing a profit.   Therefore 500k on Wii is a huge profit generator but 500k on 360 is a huge loss.

 

Can you post me a link for this. I heard different numbers (200K vs 500K) and they are like that only because they used a Wii game that costs5 million while 360 one cost 25...

 

Seconded. I'd like a link from these 'industry analysts'. Everything I've seen puts the numbers much closer to 250-300k for the Wii and 350-600k for the X360/PS3 (with the X360 being at the lower end of that number).

 

Can't find it now.  Did find this:

As for this latest realigning, money talks (innovation walks) and you have to assume someone simply woke up and smelled the honey pot. According to chairman and CEO of Foundation 9 Entertaiment Jon Goldman, "Publishers are saying: Instead of spending $15 million or $20 million on one PS3 game, come back to me with five or six Wii pitches." That's because (a) games take far less time to create on the Wii -- 12 months versus two to three years for the competition, (b) it costs roughly $5 million per game in development scratch versus $10 to $20 million for a typical Xbox 360 or PS3 game, and the Wii has been outselling every system except its own handheld DS Lite since November 2006, i.e. some eight or so solid months of market growth.

So 5m vs up to 20m and in some cases 20m (Mario) vs 100m (GTA).   No question Wii development is signifigantly cheaper.

 

 

 WTF? 20 million? Thats a HUGE budget game, even for PS360. I read somewhere Lost Odyssey only took 10 million to make, and thats considered a large budget game.

And how about we compare CoD WaW instead of Star Wars?



GOTY Contestants this year: Dead Space 2, Dark Souls, Tales of Graces f. Everything else can suck it.

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welshbloke on 18 December 2008
Gamerace said:

Can't find it now.  Did find this:

As for this latest realigning, money talks (innovation walks) and you have to assume someone simply woke up and smelled the honey pot. According to chairman and CEO of Foundation 9 Entertaiment Jon Goldman, "Publishers are saying: Instead of spending $15 million or $20 million on one PS3 game, come back to me with five or six Wii pitches." That's because (a) games take far less time to create on the Wii -- 12 months versus two to three years for the competition, (b) it costs roughly $5 million per game in development scratch versus $10 to $20 million for a typical Xbox 360 or PS3 game, and the Wii has been outselling every system except its own handheld DS Lite since November 2006, i.e. some eight or so solid months of market growth.

So 5m vs up to 20m and in some cases 20m (Mario) vs 100m (GTA).   No question Wii development is signifigantly cheaper. 

 

This is sort of what you would think but not actually what happens. The only developer who can consistently make money on this platform would seem to be Nintendo itself. I think the platform still struggles to return the investment it really should be with its market share for most developers.

 



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

Kinect as seen by PS3 owners ...if you can pick at it   ...post it ... Did I mention the 360 was black and Shinny? Keeping Sigs obscure since 2007, Passed by the Sig police 5July10.
Gamerace on 18 December 2008

I agree it would have been better for developers if all systems had comparible specs.

But the fact remains the HD consoles have raised development costs 3-4 times the amount of last gen games without any way for developers to reap 3-4 times the revenue and profit.

I don't think sticking all FPS on Wii is the answer, I think developers need to diversify their product offerings (like Ubisoft) so they are no longer dependant on having a blockbuster hit to be profitable.



 

mrstickball on 18 December 2008
Gamerace said:

Can't find it now.  Did find this:

As for this latest realigning, money talks (innovation walks) and you have to assume someone simply woke up and smelled the honey pot. According to chairman and CEO of Foundation 9 Entertaiment Jon Goldman, "Publishers are saying: Instead of spending $15 million or $20 million on one PS3 game, come back to me with five or six Wii pitches." That's because (a) games take far less time to create on the Wii -- 12 months versus two to three years for the competition, (b) it costs roughly $5 million per game in development scratch versus $10 to $20 million for a typical Xbox 360 or PS3 game, and the Wii has been outselling every system except its own handheld DS Lite since November 2006, i.e. some eight or so solid months of market growth.

So 5m vs up to 20m and in some cases 20m (Mario) vs 100m (GTA).   No question Wii development is signifigantly cheaper.

Still didn't prove your point. You said that Wii games needed ~250,000 units to break even and X360/PS3 were a million. That article didn't prove it. All it said was that (and mind you, it didn't give a Wii average, but only 1 number) the average X360/PS3 game seemingly costs $15m. But that didn't give any numbers concerning break-even points, given the fact that the average X360/PS3 game makes developers more money.

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Metsadah on 18 December 2008

bullshit, enough money is made on all the consoles, the only one with problems is the ps3 due to low hard and software sales.

I think the next console generation wont offer a big upgrade in graphics, but would probably streamline the developing a lot more. Especially for Sony, they cant get away with a hard to code console again. (if they ever manage to make a new one).



Khuutra on 18 December 2008
mrstickball said:

Khuutra said:
mrstickball, isn't the Wii version of The Force Unleashed outselling both of the other versions on a weekly basis and is, in fact, about to pass up the PS3 version in lifetime sales?

Just to point that out.

And no, Zack and Wiki and No More Heroes were not big-budget. They were anything but. They also made tidy profits.

Actually, no. The X360 vesion of TFU outsold the Wii version last week.

Here are the totals from VGC Worldwide:

5
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
LucasArts 12 44,581 1,328,066
6
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
LucasArts 12 43,164 826,372
9
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
LucasArts 12 32,727 899,154

And need I remind you that the Wii has outsold both consoles in the respective markets (NA and PAL) where this game was huge? TFU is one of the better sellers for the Wii, but it still is down ~500,000 units versus the X360 and ~70,000 on the PS3 (although it's obvious it'll pass the PS3). Is that considered 'good' for a console that has well over twice the install base of the PS3?

 

 

....How long of an argument do you want? I could go on for a while.