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Forums - Sales Discussion - On The Verge of A Gaming Crash? Without Nintendo....

bigjon said:
Magnific0 said:
I see Bigjon, the solution is: instead of making a crappy game with a big budget for an HD console, make an even crappier game but with less money for the Wii and you **MAY** reap the benefits, at least won't lose much money.

OK. Now, I can't see which part of that benefits the players. More crappy games with no commitment to quality, I don't want that , don't know about you.

If a company wants to stay competitive they've got to work harder, if the can't then it's time for them to consider developing other kinds of games, there's the PSN/Xbox Live Alternative. Look at the healthy Capcom branch of downloadable games, look at all the fine content of indie games on the PSN. If you can't deliver, you just can't so change your business, if that means going the Wii way to put out your trash there, then do it, if it's for the sake of business, it's all about money anyway. I just don't see how that benefits the industry. Even worse, I see that could very well be the path to destruction (going the casual, generic way) the only "Big Crash" of videogames that ever happened to this industry was provoked exactly by that proliference of crappy casual games.

 

 No you are very wrong.

I am willing to bet that with the budget of a crappy hd game, they could make an awsome Wii game. Example, the Conduit, I am willing to bet the budget on that is less than games like Heavenly Sword, Lair and Haze. Now we dont know if the conduit is a good game yet, but I as far as the budget goes, I think I am right (could be wrong, of course)

Then why mention that game in the first place, you're not even sure of what you're talking about. Of course the budget is lower , it doesn't take a genius to figure that out, it seems it did take an extra effort out of you though. Look, bad developers are BAD developers no matter the size of the budget they have. A developer that makes a piece of trash like the latest Alone in the Dark won't suddenly make a miraculous masterpiece if given more money. If given the chance to develop the game for the Wii, they'd make the same , albeit less expensive piece of crap. Also, The Wii is not the only system which games are less expensive to produce than HD consoles, there's also the very succesul portables, and still after 9 years of battle, the Playstation 2.  Not every game in those systems is a masterpiece 'cause is "cheap to produce" and has "widespread appeal userbase" now is it? good developers make great games, bad developers need to refocus or cease to exist. I'm a gamer, and I like that.

 



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Wii games cost 10-20 dolalrs less than HD games out of the gate. Considering the licensing fees and shipping/packaging costs are the same no matter which platform you publish for one can asume that HD consoles are getting the developer/publisher atleast 10 dollars more for each copy sold.

If a game sells 500K on 360 and 500K on the Wii, the 360 version should logically net 5 million dollars more.

I am not in the industry so I can't really argue this point any better but this can be one of the reasons publishers arent doing more Wii developed games.



bigjon said:
mrstickball said:
I think part of the issue is that the Wii has fragmented the gamer base into 2 categories: The HD base, and the Wii base.

Never before has there been such a fragmentation. Last generation, there was a pretty clear choice - You had the PS2 for any project, and it was near-assured to garner huge sales. And then there was the GC and Xbox as 2nd-tier products, multi-plat games, or moneyhatting situations that could give increased profitability.

Not so with the Wii/HD comparison. It's a catch 22: Spend tons of cash on a blockbuster HD game and it either does great, and makes tons of cash...Or does OK and hurts (ala Haze or Lair).

The other option is the Wii, which has seen horrible returns for some games..Works for casual games, but that also fragments your work force - Few games seem broad success between all 3 platforms. Madden would be a great example of this...Despite the huge install base of the Wii, Madden sales have been nothing short of abysmal given the install base.

Part of it is the developers fault, part of it is the HW manufacturers fault - and all of them. No one is without blame. Nintendo put out trashy hardware that fragmented the abilities of developers, while the HD manufacturers put out systems that exponentially increased costs past what may be viable for the average game.

please name a huge budget wii exclusive game that has failed on the Wii?

If they dev had comitted to the Wii there would not be the fragementation you see. But right now the tradtional gamer would walk into Walmart and be terrified at the Wii library (Nintendo games aside). Once the Wii has a well rounded library you will se more core gamers migrate. If the conduit is AAA quality, it could be one of those game, in Japan, it will be DQX.

Please name games that would be up for consideration :)

I mean, if you look at games like No More Heroes, Zak & Wiki, Nights: Journey Into Dreams, Opoona - they all did pretty bad compared to similar 'high budget X360 exclusives'.

And here's my problem: Go look at sales for games like The Force Unleashed, Madden, and Call of Duty - all big name Western games. They all did pretty crappy on the Wii while selling very good on the X360/PS3. CoD: WaW would be a MASSIVE example of this. World at War has sold over 4 million copies on X360/PS3 and under 250,000 on the Wii. Wii advocates say "b-b-ut it'll have legs!" - Even if it does, does that help in a situation to where the HD versions have sold 20 times more units than the Wii version? Don't you think that some hesitance from Western developers is justified given some of the multi-plat performances? I'm not saying everything is bad: the Wii does a great job of selling games that are targeted for the 'E for Everyone' crowd. But that's not the entire marketplace. Give me a few T and M rated million sellers on the Wii.

One of the failures, I see, in respect to the West is the slow adoption of potent middleware technologies for the PS3 and X360 that could help out with their budgets. I've been a big advocate of extensive middleware usage ever since games began to have high budgets this generation. Want an interesting note? Gears of War cost the same amount to Epic as Red Steel did to Ubisoft. Both were ~$10 million dollar games. Guess which one made more profit?

@FishyJoe - So you really think Nintendo is justified for charging $200 for a console that has 1/4th the abilities of the X360 (which costs consumers the same price)? I'm not arguing Nintendo should have used multi-core cutting edge technology. But for God sakes, they could of released something that had at least a little bit more muscle that would have cost them a few more bucks....I firmly believe if Nintendo would have beefed up the specs on the Wii, it wouldn't be in the mess it has been in regards to 3rd party support. It's a difficult thing, in my eyes, for developers to go from the insane horsepower of the X360/PS3 to the Wii which weighs in at the weakest console in history relative to the rest of the competition. Even the Dreamcast wasn't as poor to it's generation as the Wii is to this.

But going back to my point: It's everyone's fault. I may be harping on the Wii the most, but I don't understand how you could only condemn Sony or MS for putting out the same kind of console that has been expected (a generational leap in hardware), and Nintendo deciding to put out something that was slightly better than last gen.

Developers/Publishers need better solutions for managing their workforces, and pay better attention to putting out titles that aren't blockbusters, but focus on the fundementals....One argues that the Wii is cheaper to develop for...It's not. The problem is that since the Wii has a lower threshold of what it can do, developers spend less time on the said game...Which equals less money. HD system developers could do the same thing, and put out cheaper games. Look at PSN/XBLA games. They are made for the same price as WiiWare games, and have been MASSIVE successes. The same can be said for big retail titles. I think that these developers scopes' are too big...Thinking that every game has to be a Fallout or Madden AAA blockbuster, when the world needs more Lego Indiana Jones'.

Hardware manufacturers also need to realize that the cost of building games is too high. They need to work with developers on reducing costs, and improving SDK solutions. I've been a big advocate of companies providing more and more middleware technology. Building game engines, and the associated back end is a very costly task...Which costs companies huge sums of money to do. IMO, the big 3 should take a long hard look at building, releasing, or buying up engines to distribute to developers. What if Microsoft could license any developer UE3 for the X360 at a fraction of what Epic is currently charging? Microsoft is going the right route with XNA, but it's a poor solution for retail games.

Likewise, next gen, all companies will need to take a hard look at their actual systems, and what they put into it. I think there needs to be a compromise on what specs go into next gen. Nintendo can't rip off consumers by putting out a system that has atrocious specs, but there can't be a uber arms race, either, that ends up cutting off mainstream consumers from purchasing systems, either....Such as the case that we've seen with the PS3.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

disolitude said:
Wii games cost 10-20 dolalrs less than HD games out of the gate. Considering the licensing fees and shipping/packaging costs are the same no matter which platform you publish for one can asume that HD consoles are getting the developer/publisher atleast 10 dollars more for each copy sold.

If a game sells 500K on 360 and 500K on the Wii, the 360 version should logically net 5 million dollars more.

I am not in the industry so I can't really argue this point any better but this can be one of the reasons publishers arent doing more Wii developed games.

According to indsutry analysts, they project a average Wii game makes a profit at 250k but an average HD needs to sell 1m to start  clearing a profit.   Therefore 500k on Wii is a huge profit generator but 500k on 360 is a huge loss.

 



 

axumblade said:

OR

We're in a recession and a lot of companies are on the brink of going under. And because there are so many gaming companies out there and a lot of them produce moderately crappy games that sell decently to pay for their amazing games, which aren't doing amazing, they are going under. I see these companies failing even if they release great games on the Wii. It's just the way that this generation is going. Unless it's got Nintendo, Sonic or Casual written on it for the Wii, there are very few games that can even hit a million.

 

You say that as though Wii games need to sell a million to make big profits.

 

Rember, it's the PS3, and to some extent the 360, that need to sell 500k JUST TO BREAK EVEN on a typical game. Not a AAA game. A typical game.

 

And just what is the percentage of games on those platforms that sell over 500? Hmmm?



 

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Gamerace said:
disolitude said:
Wii games cost 10-20 dolalrs less than HD games out of the gate. Considering the licensing fees and shipping/packaging costs are the same no matter which platform you publish for one can asume that HD consoles are getting the developer/publisher atleast 10 dollars more for each copy sold.

If a game sells 500K on 360 and 500K on the Wii, the 360 version should logically net 5 million dollars more.

I am not in the industry so I can't really argue this point any better but this can be one of the reasons publishers arent doing more Wii developed games.

According to indsutry analysts, they project a average Wii game makes a profit at 250k but an average HD needs to sell 1m to start  clearing a profit.   Therefore 500k on Wii is a huge profit generator but 500k on 360 is a huge loss.

 

Can you post me a link for this. I heard different numbers (200K vs 500K) and they are like that only because they used a Wii game that costs5 million while 360 one cost 25...

 



disolitude said:
Gamerace said:
disolitude said:
Wii games cost 10-20 dolalrs less than HD games out of the gate. Considering the licensing fees and shipping/packaging costs are the same no matter which platform you publish for one can asume that HD consoles are getting the developer/publisher atleast 10 dollars more for each copy sold.

If a game sells 500K on 360 and 500K on the Wii, the 360 version should logically net 5 million dollars more.

I am not in the industry so I can't really argue this point any better but this can be one of the reasons publishers arent doing more Wii developed games.

According to indsutry analysts, they project a average Wii game makes a profit at 250k but an average HD needs to sell 1m to start  clearing a profit.   Therefore 500k on Wii is a huge profit generator but 500k on 360 is a huge loss.

 

Can you post me a link for this. I heard different numbers (200K vs 500K) and they are like that only because they used a Wii game that costs5 million while 360 one cost 25...

 

Seconded. I'd like a link from these 'industry analysts'. Everything I've seen puts the numbers much closer to 250-300k for the Wii and 350-600k for the X360/PS3 (with the X360 being at the lower end of that number).

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Nintendo isn't ripping off consumers. That's just fanboy bullshit. That's like saying MS is ripping off consumers by selling Office or Vista. Spare me please. These are businesses, they are supposed to make money.



mrstickball said:
bigjon said:
mrstickball said:
I think part of the issue is that the Wii has fragmented the gamer base into 2 categories: The HD base, and the Wii base.

Never before has there been such a fragmentation. Last generation, there was a pretty clear choice - You had the PS2 for any project, and it was near-assured to garner huge sales. And then there was the GC and Xbox as 2nd-tier products, multi-plat games, or moneyhatting situations that could give increased profitability.

Not so with the Wii/HD comparison. It's a catch 22: Spend tons of cash on a blockbuster HD game and it either does great, and makes tons of cash...Or does OK and hurts (ala Haze or Lair).

The other option is the Wii, which has seen horrible returns for some games..Works for casual games, but that also fragments your work force - Few games seem broad success between all 3 platforms. Madden would be a great example of this...Despite the huge install base of the Wii, Madden sales have been nothing short of abysmal given the install base.

Part of it is the developers fault, part of it is the HW manufacturers fault - and all of them. No one is without blame. Nintendo put out trashy hardware that fragmented the abilities of developers, while the HD manufacturers put out systems that exponentially increased costs past what may be viable for the average game.

please name a huge budget wii exclusive game that has failed on the Wii?

If they dev had comitted to the Wii there would not be the fragementation you see. But right now the tradtional gamer would walk into Walmart and be terrified at the Wii library (Nintendo games aside). Once the Wii has a well rounded library you will se more core gamers migrate. If the conduit is AAA quality, it could be one of those game, in Japan, it will be DQX.

Please name games that would be up for consideration :)

I mean, if you look at games like No More Heroes, Zak & Wiki, Nights: Journey Into Dreams, Opoona - they all did pretty bad compared to similar 'high budget X360 exclusives'.

And here's my problem: Go look at sales for games like The Force Unleashed, Madden, and Call of Duty - all big name Western games. They all did pretty crappy on the Wii while selling very good on the X360/PS3. CoD: WaW would be a MASSIVE example of this. World at War has sold over 4 million copies on X360/PS3 and under 250,000 on the Wii. Wii advocates say "b-b-ut it'll have legs!" - Even if it does, does that help in a situation to where the HD versions have sold 20 times more units than the Wii version? Don't you think that some hesitance from Western developers is justified given some of the multi-plat performances? I'm not saying everything is bad: the Wii does a great job of selling games that are targeted for the 'E for Everyone' crowd. But that's not the entire marketplace. Give me a few T and M rated million sellers on the Wii.

One of the failures, I see, in respect to the West is the slow adoption of potent middleware technologies for the PS3 and X360 that could help out with their budgets. I've been a big advocate of extensive middleware usage ever since games began to have high budgets this generation. Want an interesting note? Gears of War cost the same amount to Epic as Red Steel did to Ubisoft. Both were ~$10 million dollar games. Guess which one made more profit?

 

wow just wow... you compared NMH and Zack and Wiki to big budget HD games... LOL

Also, COD is a bad example. COD4 was not on the Wii, and most of the people who are buying WaW are getting it because they loved 4... I for example bought COD5 on the PS3 over the Wii. Why? Because I did not want to risk get the Wii version, I went the safe route. Again, the crappy developers have conditioned us to be scarred of Wii Ports. Also which brings to mind it is possible that MAYBE cod3 Wii lingering negative vibes has damaged the sales of CODWaW.

Either way, most of your argument you made to me are really out there. Also I have a hard time believing Red Steel cost as much as gears... I have not played either, but it just doesnt make sense...

Also, I know you dont like the Wii much... kinda released that when I saw your sig.... Did you really think the Wii would only be ar 35 mil by the end of this year... or was that just pipe dream



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

FishyJoe -

So what about the N64 and Gamecube...Or any other system Nintendo has ever put out? Every system they've put out before the Wii has been comparably powerful to other systems. The GameCube was similar in scope to the PS2/Xbox. The N64 (despite the carts) was similar to the Saturn/PS1 in terms of performance.

But no one in their right mind would argue the same of the Wii versus the X360/PS3...Would they?

How can you justify Nintendo charging the same amount of money for the Wii as they did every other system but provide far less power?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.