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Forums - Sales Discussion - On The Verge of A Gaming Crash? Without Nintendo....

Shanobi said:
Squilliam said:
Cueil said:
Squilliam said:
Shanobi said:
You fail to address the point. And guess what? Many games don't cost more than that.

But hey, ignore everything I proved you wrong with.

? You talking to me?

Anyway if you are talking to me, that $1,000,000 Euro figure was most likely for the DS as they didn't differentiate between them.

 

 

one million dollar euros?

Now all you need to do, is give me your credit card details so we can confirm who you are so we can transfer the money...

Yeah, read the link above it quotes quite a cheap price for the casualz type games from Ubisoft.

 

http://wii.ign.com/articles/792/792772p1.html

 

"May 30, 2007 - Publisher Ubisoft was one of the first third parties to recognize the potential of Nintendo's Wii console and back the platform with a wealth of titles. The company's headlining launch games, Red Steel and Rayman Raving Rabbids, were both exclusively created for Wii and have in the six months since they released each become million-sellers around the world. However, many of the developer's other efforts - all of them quick and unimpressive ports of previously released games on other systems - have faired poorly both from a critical and retail perspective. In an interview with leading German news magazine Spiegel, Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot and European head Alain Corre admitted that the publisher was too quick to rush these titles to the market.

"We made mistakes," they told the magazine. According to Spiegel, Ubisoft wanted to be first to capitalize on Wii and in its haste to release product it sacrificed the quality of the titles. Ubisoft has reportedly learned from its mistakes, though, and is promising that the quality of its forthcoming Wii projects will be significantly better."

 

 

http://www.edge-online.com/news/ubisoft-well-have-quotnintendo-likequot-quality

"At the BMO Capital Markets' Annual Interactive Entertainment Conference in New York City on Tuesday, Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot delivered a presentation that was not short on praise for Nintendo. He was particularly enamored with Nintendo's success in both the handheld and console markets, as well as their strategy of attracting casual gamers outside of the usual hardcore gaming market.

 

"[Nintendo's mass market strategy] is very profitable for Nintendo, and very profitable for all third-party publishers," he said. "...Because [the strategy] is working, we create more product [for Nintendo platforms] and this will actually bring more people into the industry. The Wii is going to continue to do extremely well with no limit to growth.""

"He also revealed some figures on the current costs of development, stating that DS games only need to sell around 100,000 units to become profitable. By comparison, a game developed for PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360 has to sell upwards of 1.3 million units to achieve profitability."

 

 

Comming from a company who's games generally sell several million copies on the 360...  I apploaud them for doing stuff for the Wii that targets the Wii's audiance specificly and I wish the success



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Shanobi said:
What part of this do you not understand?

"Analysts predict that some other publishers will need to clear 1 million units to get in the black--and start making about $1 per game sold."

Also, Google. Seriously. I gave you the companies, how hard is it?

 

Publishers =/= developers.  The question being discussed was how much the developers make, you know, the people who do the programming and designing.  According to your own article they get 45%

 

As for your Reuter's article, I have a few things to say. Quoted below.

Guillemot said the company's casual games business was "extremely profitable" and helped to finance the initially costly development of games for next-generation consoles -- Sony's (6758.T) PlayStation3 and Microsoft's (MSFT.O) Xbox 360.

Good find on that, I was previously unaware of any dev who had actually said that.  Note though that while he said that this occurred in the past (most likely before they brought any HD games to market, but after their last gen games stopped selling), there is no indication that casual funding of HD projects is the status quo at Ubisoft, or anywhere else. Hd development costs have come down in the past two years, and nobody can rationally argue that game like Assassin's Creed and Rainbow Six: Vegas haven't made loads of money for them.



De85 said:
Shanobi said:
What part of this do you not understand?

"Analysts predict that some other publishers will need to clear 1 million units to get in the black--and start making about $1 per game sold."

Also, Google. Seriously. I gave you the companies, how hard is it?

 

Publishers =/= developers.  The question being discussed was how much the developers make, you know, the people who do the programming and designing.  According to your own article they get 45%

 

As for your Reuter's article, I have a few things to say. Quoted below.

Guillemot said the company's casual games business was "extremely profitable" and helped to finance the initially costly development of games for next-generation consoles -- Sony's (6758.T) PlayStation3 and Microsoft's (MSFT.O) Xbox 360.

Good find on that, I was previously unaware of any dev who had actually said that.  Note though that while he said that this occurred in the past (most likely before they brought any HD games to market, but after their last gen games stopped selling), there is no indication that casual funding of HD projects is the status quo at Ubisoft, or anywhere else. Hd development costs have come down in the past two years, and nobody can rationally argue that game like Assassin's Creed and Rainbow Six: Vegas haven't made loads of money for them.

 

 

 

Oh sure, you can even see in their financial statements that Rainbow Six and Assasin's Creed brought in nice profits for them. 

 

I think the problem is, that for every 1 HD game that makes a profit, you're looking at around 8-9 games that lose money. It's no secret that Rockstar, for example, has lost money on nearly every game that hasn't bore the "GTA" title.

 

There was an article posted on here recently that discussed how, I believe it was, only 1 in every 10 "next gen" games make a profit. Heck, just look at the charts here. Look at the high profile games on 360/PS3 that have stellar sales. Now as yourself, where are the other games? 

'Cause there have been a LOT of games released, and most of them fell right off the map. Outside of the largely hyped games, you have the rest. And they've lost tons of money. Companies have to hope that the hype games can bring in enough money to offset the losses of the other titles that aren't making it.

We all agree that the industry is imploding right now, right? I mean, we can see studios folding, developers merging, publishers closing studios, dropping I.P.'s.

Thing clearly aren't going well for the business end of the industry, and I think we can all agree on that.



 

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Good thread.

Of course external things, like the economy, or the platform, affect third party publishers. The problem is when you start looking at those external things as the main determinent of your success or failure.

The reality is that only companies with bad business models are destroyed by a bad economy. The Japanese carmakers are taking a big hit right now. They aren't about to implode like Chrysler or GM.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Squilliam said:
Lord N said:

So let me get this straight......

Not only do you truly believe that the PS3 and 360 would combine for 170 million+ sales, you also believe that all of these people, including the non gamers, who are buying the Wii like crazy would spend $400-$600 dollars on a PS3 or 360 if they were the only options, and after that, you still believe that non-traditional games would sell well on the PS3 and 360 despite the fact that only one has managed to do so thus far(Little Big Planet)?

You must have access to some damn fine drugs.

 

I believe that both are losing the battle for the hearts and minds of most gamers to the Wii, but in the absence of the Wii and Nintendo that the consoles would follow a generational progression from the PS1 -> PS2 -> PS3/Xbox 360 sharing X % of the market between them. So whilst I do doubt that they would have bought the Wii, but I do believe Microsoft would be doing even better and the same would apply to Sony, but especially Microsoft with the $200 Arcade.

The PS2 outsold the PS1 even though the latter was really just a performance upgrade on the former. So I believe that the current generation would out perform the previous, following that same model except it would not have grown by nearly as much. If a graphical improvement wasn't apreciated by some then I don't believe that the HD consoles would have nearly the sales strength they currently have, so in that respect they are able to draw in the people who refused to play games that "look stupid", and I used to know a few.

 

 

It should be pretty obvious that a mere graphical upgrade was not the reason for the PS2's success. The HD consoles only have sales strength outside of the holidays. As a matter of fact, the only non-Nintendo console with strong sales in all regions throughout the year is the PSP.

The Wii from the start was at a price point that people are willing to pay, and the most important thing, it offered a new gaming experience that appealed to masses and managed to bring in an entirely new group of gamers that never would have bought a PS3 or 360. The PS3 and 360 simply don't offer this. The Wii also has a steady stream, a strong, standing library of games that appeals to every demographich whereas the PS3 and 360 have only big name exclusives that appeal to core and hardcore gamers. Combine that with their very high entry prices, and there's no way in hell that they would have sold 85 million consoles each. The people who are buying the Wii right now simply would have never spent that much money on consoles that really don't offer anything new other than a graphical upgrade.

 

 

 



 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3

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Lord N said:
Squilliam said:
Lord N said:

So let me get this straight......

Not only do you truly believe that the PS3 and 360 would combine for 170 million+ sales, you also believe that all of these people, including the non gamers, who are buying the Wii like crazy would spend $400-$600 dollars on a PS3 or 360 if they were the only options, and after that, you still believe that non-traditional games would sell well on the PS3 and 360 despite the fact that only one has managed to do so thus far(Little Big Planet)?

You must have access to some damn fine drugs.

 

I believe that both are losing the battle for the hearts and minds of most gamers to the Wii, but in the absence of the Wii and Nintendo that the consoles would follow a generational progression from the PS1 -> PS2 -> PS3/Xbox 360 sharing X % of the market between them. So whilst I do doubt that they would have bought the Wii, but I do believe Microsoft would be doing even better and the same would apply to Sony, but especially Microsoft with the $200 Arcade.

The PS2 outsold the PS1 even though the latter was really just a performance upgrade on the former. So I believe that the current generation would out perform the previous, following that same model except it would not have grown by nearly as much. If a graphical improvement wasn't apreciated by some then I don't believe that the HD consoles would have nearly the sales strength they currently have, so in that respect they are able to draw in the people who refused to play games that "look stupid", and I used to know a few.

 

 

It should be pretty obvious that a mere graphical upgrade was not the reason for the PS2's success. The HD consoles only have sales strength outside of the holidays. As a matter of fact, the only non-Nintendo console with strong sales in all regions throughout the year is the PSP.

The Wii from the start was at a price point that people are willing to pay, and the most important thing, it offered a new gaming experience that appealed to masses and managed to bring in an entirely new group of gamers that never would have bought a PS3 or 360. The PS3 and 360 simply don't offer this. The Wii also has a steady stream, a strong, standing library of games that appeals to every demographich whereas the PS3 and 360 have only big name exclusives that appeal to core and hardcore gamers. Combine that with their very high entry prices, and there's no way in hell that they would have sold 85 million consoles each. The people who are buying the Wii right now simply would have never spent that much money on consoles that really don't offer anything new other than a graphical upgrade.

 

 

 

Thats because the Wii dominated. The Xbox 360 did launch at a reasonable price @ $300, the same as the PS2 but obviously a little lower adjusted for inflation. Theres nothing that indicates that for the first time in many generations the industry would have shrunk between the PS1->PS2->Xbox 360/PS3 generations in the ansence of Nintendo. Its obvious it wouldn't have grown so fast but not that it would have shrunk. You're looking at the way things are now and just removing the Wii without adjusting the sales of the Xbox 360/PS3 to compensate for its absence as far as I can tell. Just because the Wii gets all the lifestyle/non gamer type gamers doesn't mean they wouldn't have been made on other platforms.

 



Tease.

If the Wii & DS didn't exist... I would still have a console, but I would say that my overall spending would be around half - 70%.

More to the point - due to the "viral" nature of the platform, I can count around 4 Wii and 4 DS owners that would have NO console or handheld of their own. There is *zero* chance they would have picked up a PSP, PS3 or 360.



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Shanobi said:
Magnific0 said:
Shanobi said:
In the absence of the Wii, the consume would be choosing to purchase the PS2 over the PS3/360. But we also wouldn't see this huge influx of new gamers.

Many long time hardcore gamers, such as myself, felt that the last generation was all the visual kick we needed. What we wanted next was a change in how we play games, and Nintendo served that up.

 

 oook....so when the next generation kicks up, do yourself a favor a keep playing with your Wii.

 

You act as though I don't want things to change and improve again.

 

And I will keep playing my Wii, just as I continue playing my other legacy systems. Do yourself a favor, and quit playing games right now, because they don't look as good as they will in the future.

hahaha, that doesn't make any sense. This is why I enjoy these forums, reading 12-year old Wii players just crack me up! lol

 



Magnific0 said:
Shanobi said:
Magnific0 said:
Shanobi said:
In the absence of the Wii, the consume would be choosing to purchase the PS2 over the PS3/360. But we also wouldn't see this huge influx of new gamers.

Many long time hardcore gamers, such as myself, felt that the last generation was all the visual kick we needed. What we wanted next was a change in how we play games, and Nintendo served that up.

 

 oook....so when the next generation kicks up, do yourself a favor a keep playing with your Wii.

 

You act as though I don't want things to change and improve again.

 

And I will keep playing my Wii, just as I continue playing my other legacy systems. Do yourself a favor, and quit playing games right now, because they don't look as good as they will in the future.

hahaha, that doesn't make any sense. This is why I enjoy these forums, reading 12-year old Wii players just crack me up! lol

 

That sad thing is... you are the one that sounds like a 12 year old in that discourse.

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

bigjon said:
Magnific0 said:
Shanobi said:
Magnific0 said:
Shanobi said:
In the absence of the Wii, the consume would be choosing to purchase the PS2 over the PS3/360. But we also wouldn't see this huge influx of new gamers.

Many long time hardcore gamers, such as myself, felt that the last generation was all the visual kick we needed. What we wanted next was a change in how we play games, and Nintendo served that up.

 

 oook....so when the next generation kicks up, do yourself a favor a keep playing with your Wii.

 

You act as though I don't want things to change and improve again.

 

And I will keep playing my Wii, just as I continue playing my other legacy systems. Do yourself a favor, and quit playing games right now, because they don't look as good as they will in the future.

hahaha, that doesn't make any sense. This is why I enjoy these forums, reading 12-year old Wii players just crack me up! lol

 

That sad thing is... you are the one that sounds like a 12 year old in that discourse.

 

Since it takes one to know one, you're a 12 year old too?

 



Tease.