I think the question is, will it pass the XBox 360 before the XBox 720 launches. After a new system launched it won't matter, because we all know people will move over to the next-gen and won't be buying the old generation system as much. If they can't pass them before the next-gen starts, it's not going to matter much.

It's possible for them to catch them, but honestly, who cares about 2nd place. The original XBox got 2nd place and it was meaningless to the PS2 #1 spot. Same thing this generation. PS3 making it to # 2 spot won't matter much with the Wii already locking up the #1 spot.

You would think by now people would get it that this late in the generation with the large install base that all the consoles have that exclusive software will no longer make any signifigant change to hardware sales.  Doesnt GT5 prove this once and for all.  The single piece of software that was supposed to change hardware sales failed to change the trajectory. 

Unless a totally new experience comes out that brings in people previoulsy not interested in any particular console as long as quality software continues to be released the console sales will change pretty much status quo.

Barring that it is price changes and new dynamics (like Kinect) that will have the only effect on the hardware sales ratio.

Well there's unlikely to be a 4.5M or more difference in sold numbers in 2011 in favour of the PS3 especially given the fact that the Xbox 360 enters into 2011 in a stronger sales position. Beyond this any large price cut will either be matched or even pre-empted by Microsoft given the fact that from an operational perspective their Xbox 360 business is much more profitable and they have both higher gross margins per Xbox 360 sold and their higher operational margins are coming from things like online revenue etc and overall software revenues combined won't likely diminish over the coming 12 months.

By the time any PS3 price cut is made the difference may be as high as 5-6M units if you count Q1/Q2 and Q3 sales up until that point. From the point of that expected price cut with the difference in units sold it would probably take at least 12 months even with a severe $100 price cut for the difference to be overturned. That takes us all the way up to late 2012 if not later. Then once a new generation starts, the Xbox 360 will be 7 in 2012 so betting against a new generation starts becoming a poor bet to make after that point, then all bets are off and all userbases are up for grabs, PS3 inclusive.

True. The only game the PS3 has on the way that can push PS3 is FF XIII VS. the XBox 360 still has another HALO game on the way. Plus Gears 3 bundle will move a few systems. That's about it though. I think the PS3 will do well in the U.K. over the summer, but it will be match by the XBox 360 doing well in America. Only Japan will get the PS3 a slight edge until the holidays roll in and then the Wii will dominate, casuals will buy lots of Kinects with even more software and the PS3 will once again be a distant 3rd. Sony only hope is to hang on the FF XIII and maybe Last Guardian until the holidays. They tried it with GT5, but the was pretty much a failure.

I think 2nd place is more important this gen, because the PS3 and 360 dont compete on the same level as the Wii, the people who buy that are mainly the casual market who wouldnt play our kind of games anyway imo. so its more important tbh because the combined userbase of the PS3 & 360 is over that of the Wii, and 3rd party developers are developing primarily for this HD userbase.

secondly this thread and many like it, i find are based on the assumption that the next gen is coming in 2012. imo the PS3 is going no ware for at least 4 years, i wouid say even longer tbh. the amount of money both companies have spent sluging it out only to start again with zero userbase, zero 3rd party development is too risky atm imo.

the Wii is significantly less powerful than the PS3 or 360 and making more money. so i dont see Microsoft or Sony releasing new consoles until the next Wii is announced, and even that might not be as powerful as the HD consoles are, which means that Sony and Microsoft are going into 2nd and 3rd place again, because the mass consumer dosent care for more powerful consoles when there is a cheaper alternative.

so i see the PS3 and 360 competing with the WIi 2, by which point there so many factors to consider, like price cuts, both companies could decide to undercut the Wii 2 and phase Nintendo out, which i think could happen, now both have motion controls. the other problem is whether Microsoft are making core games, they've announced maybe 1 or 2 games, everything else is Kinect heavy, in that case the PS3 isnt competing with them anymore because the PS3 userbase is a different demographic, which makes overtaking them a possiblily, but also obsolete imo, because Microsoft have left the fight with Sony to capture the casual market.

 When you think about install base and its effects, it doesn't seem relevant anymore. PS2 had a bigger install base which meant many exclusives from third-party devs, which meant more sells and an ongoing cycle. This gen is too evenly divided for that. We're seeing devs that used to develop for Sony pklatforms exclusively now developing for 360 as well, games that would have never been put on xbox are being put on 360, and that won't change if PS3 passes 360 at this point because the difference is too small and 360 has a very big install base at this point. Considering just sells, MS is a nice spot since they've been making money for about 3 years now. 

I agree 2nd place is very important this gen. Last gen PS2 was not only the casual system, but it was also the hardcore console. Very few games didn't make it to the PS2, mostly Nintendo exclusives and Halo.

As for a next gen comming out in 2012, I really doubt a PS4 will be released in 2 years, but Wii sales are already declining, I see a Wii 2 comming out in 2012, or abosolute latest 2013. I think MS will release a successor console by 2013, and Sony could release a PS4 in 2014, but not if a Wii 2 is released in 2012.

Still 3-4 years a lot could happen. Most people here see no difference in sales for PS3 - 360 for 2011, and some think the PS3 can surpass the 360 in 2012, but from what I read, most don't. I think most people here think that if PS3 surpasses 360 in total sales, it will be in 2013-2014, which will be either just before or just after a next gen is released. However there are too many factors too predict 3 years.

All I can say with confidence, is that the PS3 will almost certainly not surpass the 360 in 2011, and as 2012 looks now, It probably won't do it then either. So in a year, I'll revisit this thread and update my prediction.

Sony still has a $199 price drop in it's pocket all those huge exclusive games

How would MS combat that?

Which huge exclusives would those be?  GT5 was the biggest exclusive they had and it didn't even manage to get the PS3 to outsell the 360 on launch it's week. 

They have a lot of exclusives next year but the only one I would consider huge is Uncharted 3, and Uncharted 2 still only sold 4.23 million so far.  Gears 3 will easily beat U3 in sales.

Killzone 3?  While Killzone 2 was a graphical beast it's only sold 2.51 million so far.  Hardly a system mover, especially this late in the generation.

So which of Sony's exclusives next year are going to push it past the 360?

Wekk depending how Kinect goes it could be a much more volatile weapon then a price drop