Will PS3 eventually pass 360?

[Michael-5]

A203D said:

XanderZane said:

I think the question is, which is pass the XBox 360 before the XBox 720 launches. After a new system launched it won't matter, because we all know people will move over the next-gen and won't be buying the old generation system as much. If they can't pass them before the next-gen starts, it's not going to matter much.

It's possible for them to catch them, but honestly, who cares about 2nd place. The original XBox got 2nd place and it was meaningless to the PS2 #1 spot. Same thing this generation. PS3 making it to # 2 spot won't matter much with the Wii already locking up the #1 spot.

I think 2nd place is more important this gen, because the PS3 and 360 dont compete on the same level as the Wii, the people who buy that are mainly the casual market who wouldnt play our kind of games anyway imo. so its more important tbh because the combined userbase of the PS3 & 360 is over that of the Wii, and 3rd party developers are developing primarily for this HD userbase.

secondly this thread and many like it, i find are based on the assumption that the next gen is coming in 2012. imo the PS3 is going no ware for at least 4 years, i wouid say even longer tbh. the amount of money both companies have spent sluging it out only to start again with zero userbase, zero 3rd party development is too risky atm imo.

the Wii is significantly less powerful than the PS3 or 360 and making more money. so i dont see Microsoft or Sony releasing new consoles until the next Wii is announced, and even that might not be as powerful as the HD consoles are, which means that Sony and Microsoft are going into 2nd and 3rd place again, because the mass consumer dosent care for more powerful consoles when there is a cheaper alternative.

so i see the PS3 and 360 competing with the WIi 2, by which point there so many factors to consider, like price cuts, both companies could decide to undercut the Wii 2 and phase Nintendo out, which i think could happen, now both have motion controls. the other problem is whether Microsoft are making core games, they've announced maybe 1 or 2 games, everything else is Kinect heavy, in that case the PS3 isnt competing with them anymore because the PS3 userbase is a different demographic, which makes overtaking them a possiblily, but also obsolete imo, because Microsoft have left the fight with Sony to capture the casual market.

I agree 2nd place is very important this gen. Last gen PS2 was not only the casual system, but it was also the hardcore console. Very few games didn't make it to the PS2, mostly Nintendo exclusives and Halo.

As for a next gen comming out in 2012, I really doubt a PS4 will be released in 2 years, but Wii sales are already declining, I see a Wii 2 comming out in 2012, or abosolute latest 2013. I think MS will release a successor console by 2013, and Sony could release a PS4 in 2014, but not if a Wii 2 is released in 2012.

Still 3-4 years a lot could happen. Most people here see no difference in sales for PS3 - 360 for 2011, and some think the PS3 can surpass the 360 in 2012, but from what I read, most don't. I think most people here think that if PS3 surpasses 360 in total sales, it will be in 2013-2014, which will be either just before or just after a next gen is released. However there are too many factors too predict 3 years.

All I can say with confidence, is that the PS3 will almost certainly not surpass the 360 in 2011, and as 2012 looks now, It probably won't do it then either. So in a year, I'll revisit this thread and update my prediction.