60-65 million I say

The Wii has, so far, sold 22m just this year. And it will finish at least another 3.5m before the end of the year.

To do 60-65m by the end of next year, it will have to start losing attention. It will have to start selling FAR less.

That is absurd.

Pay attention to the facts, guys, and quit with the fanboyism and bias.

BTW, people said 45m by the end of 2008 was ridiculous, insane, and entirely impossible.

Now it's very much a reality we could be seeing soon.

Just some food for thought.

"If they increase by 33% again in March 2009, that'll bring it to 3.2m/month, or 38.4/year."

They won't.

Nintendo has realized a threshold that will meet demand by March of 2009 at the current levels. It will remain at 2.4m/month throughout 2009.

This means ~45m this year and probably ~70m by end of 2010.

With 360 at ~27m this year and probably ~35m by 2010, then you have the PS3 at ~19m this year and probably ~30m by 2010. That gives them a total of ~65m.

Wii will definitely be >50% market share in 2009.

That's better then 80 million, but still a bit too high, I'd say it'll be around 70 million that's still extremely well, let's say the Wii sell's 45 million by the end of December, so that leaves 25 million for all of 2009 that's ALOT for a system with barely any new AAA games.

my prediction for 2008 was 45 million at the years end.... I think I am gonna be really close.

I think for 2009.... Well, lets see the Wii sold about 25 million give or take this year... I dont think it can go too much higher... hmm.... 73 million. By Jan1, 2010.

2009 will be the peak year with about 28 million sold, the next year shall be alittle less but not a big drop, maybe 26 mil. Then we will see fairly drastic drops year to year due to saturation.

so

28 mil in 09
26 mil in 2010
19 mil in 2011 (199.99 Wii)
14 mil in 2012 (Wii 2 lauches)
10 mil in 2013 (wii 1 goes bargain price at 129.99)

It it follows that it will finish with about 140 million consoles sold before it goes into its dying years (maybe 10-15 more lifetime)

At about 150 million it will be the best selling console yet.

Wii is selling more this holiday season than previously anticipated. Already it's only .5m away from my original predictions for YE2008.

If that's not proof that the Wii has incredible selling power beyond what everybody keeps thinking, I don't know what is.

How many wiis!? Using maths, this could lead to 400 million wiis by the end of 2011!!!

Hmm, yeah, I think it'll do about 78-79 million by the end of 2009.

Presently, the Wii is at 45.37m, and that's excluding the last four days of 2008.

It appears the final 2008 sales will be around 46m, give or take a hundred thousand (45.9-46.1, I'd estimate now).

We'll know when we get this week's numbers next week. Easiest way to estimate would be to take this week's sales and multiply by 0.57 (57%). That'll get you 4 days worth out of the seven for the week.

At 46m for EoY2008, that would mean only 29m need to sell for me to be right (at LEAST 75m by EoY2009). Last announced production rates said 28.8m would be produced in 2009, and Nintendo has already stated that they've upped production beyond that rate.