This thread is RE: Wii: Past 80 million by end of 2009.

This thread is to talk about facts. Leave your bias and fanboyism at the door.

Production was ramped up from the initial rates to 1.8m/month (21.6m/yr) in March 2007.

Then they ramped it up to 2.4m/month (28.8m/yr) in March 2008. That's EXACTLY a 33% increase.

If they increase by 33% again in March 2009, that'll bring it to 3.2m/month, or 38.4/year.

38.4 for nine months (38.4 * (9/12)) = 28.8.

Nintendo has already stated that they estimate having shipped 52m by March 31, 2009.

52m by the end of March + 28.8m for the remainder of 2009 = 80.8 million units shipped by January 1, 2010.

Given the Wii sellthrough rate, I'd estimate that no less than 78m of those 80.8 million will be sold by January 1, 2010.

Also, note that this ignores the fact that Nintendo claims to have upped production rates for this holiday season by an undetermined amount. Work that increase into these estimates and the Wii could very possibly drastically outdo preliminary estimates (particularly since their 33% increase in March could be on top of the presently increased production).

Now, factoring in fluctuations and other factors, there isn't a guarantee that the 80.8m that I've estimated will happen. It's possible they'll end up producing/shipping less, or even possibly far more. Estimating possible changes to this, we can expect somewhere between a 25% minimum and 40% maximum increase.

25% increase would make it 36m/yr (27m in 2009 after March, total of 79m possible shipped).

40% increase would make 40.32m/yr (30.24m after March; about 83m total possible shipped).

Again, given Wii sellthrough, we can know FOR A FACT that the Wii will sell through 75m by January 1, 2010, even if sales rates drop. And it COULD make as much as seven million more, depending on what sort of production increase Nintendo pulls off.

Edit: Also, Nintendo has made it very clear that they will be upping production in March. On the vague off-chance that they don't, then they will still ship 28.8 through next year. That will put it at 72m minimum shipped by the end of next year. A 5% increase means 30.24m in 2009 - 73.5m minimum by the end of the year. A 15% increase means 33.15m in 2009 - about 76m minimum by 2010. Since they WILL be upping production, and history has shown that they like 33% increases, we KNOW 2009 will mean big things for the Wii.

There are a lot of uncertainties you have to take into account, actually. Same-value competition emerging, market saturation possibilities, production bottlenecks, even PR missteps; any of those things could affect sales. But you have done a good back-of-the-envelope calculation there for a rough estimate based on current data.

As much as I love the Wii, no.

Those things could. There are also a number of factors that state that those are all incredibly improbable and therefore virtual nonfactors.

But you DO have a point, albeit a minor one.

RCTjunkie: I've got facts backing this. What've you got? An opinion? Facts > opinion, sir. Provide some facts to explain why I'm wrong.

I agree. This matches my predictions too.

If the demans is there yea, but if not everyone on earth wants a wii im sorry it wont hit that, same with ps3, same with 360.

Everyone on Earth = about 6.5 billion people.

You don't need 6.5 billion people to want a Wii in order to sell 40 million. You just need 40 million of them. That's only half a percent of the world population.

I'd bet a few vg$ on the
' Yes Wii will reach this number in this timeframe '
option.

easily 78 million would even be a safe bet

I did a bit of checking. From launch to the end of March, 2007, the Wii had sold about 5.7 million units.

From March 2007 through March 2008, it had sold 17.65 units. This is mainly because it took them time to ramp it up to 1.8m.

From March 2008 to present, it has sold 18m units. In order to finish 2008 at a rate of 28.8m/yr (starting in March, 21.6 through December), it has to sell three million more before the end of 2008. Since it's been selling at a rate of 1.3m/week presently, and three and a half weeks remain to be reported this year, it will accomplish that sales rate and then some.

So, 71m is definitely assured. And with production increases, the sky is the limit.