Kasz216 said: atma998 said: Kasz216 said: Shura said: Kasz216 said: Max King of the Wild said: Kasz216 said: DMeisterJ said: 1 million in five weeks. /thread. Did it still? I mean... NPD says VGchartz was over in the US. The first 5 weeks appear to be at 356K for the US according to NPD VS our 44,7807. Would put us a little over 9K over.  Which would mean LBP would be actually a little under a million currently. Ignoring Canada and Mexico? (Does NPD track bundles?) Bundles no.  Though were there even LBP bundles in NA? Good point about Canada.  Not really mexico though.  PS3 is proportionally less strong in Canada and espiecially mexico though. So it'd still be a lot more likely that LBP didn't reach the Mil till week 6. Well, LBP is the best sony game sold until now, more ore less 40% over Gran Turismo, thats a lot  How many have been sold? i have no idea, but, if mexico is 50% of canada and canada is 10% of USA, that mean250-350k consoles in mexico, so, maybe 75k would be possible, and a good number though. It's not though.  PS3 its more like... Canada is 5% of USA... and almost nothing in Mexico.  PS3 doesn't sell in central and south America. To sell in central and South America in large numbers you basically need to have two things. A) A cheap price B) Pirateability That's why the PS3 numbers are usually the most spot on with NPD.    Why would Canada be 5% of USA...I'm sure it's rather around 10%. Because PS3 sells less in Canada proportionally.  The 10% number is an "average" of it. Mexico (and south america) is half of Canada in regards to the Wii... which is 10% of the US. This is less so with the 360... not in mexico 360 is pretty big there... but the rest of central and south america. and even less so with the PS3.

 

Well, in the August thread here: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=41521

PS3 was up to 544k. I'm sure it's sold more then 100k consoles since then to make up 10% of the American sales.

360k was at 893k. I'm not sure if it sold more then 500k to make up 10% of American sales.

LBP has been out 7 week. In that time it has been in the top 5 worldwide PS3 games sales every single week. (#3, #2, #1, #2, #4, #5, #2). That seems like pretty good legs to me.

I don't know what your definition of legs are....but LBP certainly has some very long legs.

@ CMoney

And we expect it to outsell GT5P.

Wii Music is at 1.84, Animal Crossing at 1.67 and LBP at 1.52. Obviously people who said that LBP would outsell Gears2 which had a 5m predecessor were weird but the other two are more or less in the same area. (And I still cannot believe that a turd like Wii Music or a slight update like Animal Crossing sell like this). The situation could be different if they hadn't pushed LBP back for a couple of weeks because of the retarded muslim song problem or if the Wii actually had some big ticket games this season that would compete with Wii Music and Animal Crossing.

LBP first 3 weeks: 598K

 

LBP next 3 weeks: 375K (63%)

 

LBP next 3 weeks: 550K

 

Seems nice, but LBP launched late October. Let's look at some possible comparisons.

 

Fable 2

 

First 3: 1490K

Next 3: 292K

Next 3: 390K

 

Fable 2 also has very good continuation in sales, but not quite as good as LBP (excluding first 3 weeks, LBP has sold 243K more. That is ~ 1/3 more).

 

Far Cry 2 (Ps3 + X360 combined)

First 3: 730K

Next 3: 296K

Next 3: 530K

 

Far Cry has about as good continuation as LBP (too close to tell a difference).

 

Saints Row 2 (launched 1 week before)

First 3: 983K

Next 3: 243K

Next 3: 344K

 

Saints Row 2 does not have as good continuation as LBP.

 

Fallout 3 (launched a week later)

 First 3: 1423K

Next 3: 539K

Next 3 (estimated): 760K

 

Fallout 3 has slightly better legs than LBP. This is across both versions, but if you count the 360 version only..

 

First 3: 916K

Next 3: 350K

Next 3: 530K

 

That version (alone) is doing on par with LBP.

 

So LBP is doing slightly better than the other high-profile HD games this year. It is really to early to call (and LBP bundles might skew it a bit)

 

For last year, there was only Guitar Hero 3 from the same time-frame. Let's check the X360 version. It was released 1 week after LBP. 

 

First 3: 901K

Next 3: 425K

Next 3: 546K

(Next 3: 221K)

 

So that one actually did a bit better. It ended with almost 4M.

LBP could end around there (unless bundles take off like heck). Of course, it isn't certain LBP will do this much. I'd put it at (non-bundles) 3-3.5M.

 

It is legging slightly better than most HD games, but not a lot better.

 

So LBP is legging

I love how all of these news articles pass off NPD America sales as all that matter. Hello, there's a continent called Europe...

And I guess LBP does have legs, unlike what people seemed to be thinking a few weeks ago (look at the date of the OP, 12th December 2008)

can you really determine a games legs without a years worth of data? sure you can speculate on a monthly basis but sales jump around. if lbp ends up at 3-4 million (which is where i peg it) then that smells of profit and success to me.

i want to throw another question into the mix. do you think lbp will see a surge in sales after a price cut? i guess the question can be used for any game, mostly 1st/2nd party, but i wanted to focus it on the topic at hand.

welshbloke said: I remember seeing the LBP adverts in the UK. I asked my wife what she thought of the advert and all she could say is dunno what is it. So for something aiming at the casual market I think it struggles to get its message across. Also I honestly do not think this game is casual, the whole level design thing to me smacks of hard core and hence why I think it has not done as well as maybe some folks may of hoped.

The thing about LBP is that it seems to be aimed at the casual game market, but in the end, it isn't.  It has some hard levels, but the design levels thing is not casual, and is more of a hard core cultish title.

 

CMoney said: Sony hyped this game beyond belief as did their legions of fanboys.  Months and even years before it was released, the game was repeatedly & almost endlessly touted as "system seller" by the Sony elite at CES and E3 conferences.  Littlebigplanet was forced upon the public by the Sony PR Czars.  In every interview regardless of relevance, they would mention "littlebigplanet" and how would outsell GT5 Prologue and shift hardware.   Well my friends the day of reckoning is upon us and the results are clear.  Highly rated game, HUGE Marketing push & average sales.  However, it was an expectatins flop because Sony tried to convince us it would be the second coming. http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/sony-littlebigplanet-sales-to-beat-gt5-prologue

And throw in articles like this and you are asking for set up for disappointment:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/littlebigplanet-is-a-system-seller-says-analyst

LittleBigPlanet is a system seller, says analyst

Media Molecule's LittleBigPlanet could be a driving force in improving PlayStation 3 sales early next year, according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter.