I was doing a little research for a thread today. Asking myself how adverse the effect of the price cut rumor would be on sales early next year. So I went to the charts to see what the PS3 averaged weekly globally in January, February, and March of this year. At first I thought I had made a gross error, but I kept plugging in weeks, and found that it is indeed true the PS3 is performing par for weeks in those months right now in the middle of the holiday season. I knew the PS3 was doing badly, but I doubt it really sank in up until that point. I doubt it has sunk in for many posters on these forums.

So I followed the logical step, and decided to see how much lower the sales were for both the 360 and PS3 from the previous holiday season. Specifically a week that alligns with the current one. I find the sales have decreased to forty or thirty percent of this week. So now I am struck with a real question what happens if last years precedent draws a parallel to sales in the coming year. Could the PS3 see sales of a third to a half of current sales, and what does that mean for the console.

Console weekly 115,000/175,000

Do not derail this thread with trolling. I want real discussion not fanboy bullshit. You and your gut can go speak to eachother in a corner. I am seriously interested in seeing real data interpretation, and finding out what other posters might think this would mean.

Well we have the recession going on right now. Gamers are going by percieved VALUE when it comes to shopping for consoles. Right now the wii and xbox 360 have more "VALUE" than the PS3 for the average consumer. When the price drops $100 or so well see the PS3 doing what the 360 is right now, Flying off the shelves.

The thing that suprises me the most about the PS3 sales in not how low or badly they are doing ( there are reasons for that, Price, games, image etc ) its the lack of support from Sony. To me they have given up, its like they have thrown in the towel. Look at MS, when the PS3 was starting to get some traction with sales, they did something about it. They lowered the price to a point where it was perfect for non hardcore gamers to buy. It is rubbish to say, they have problems and there is nothing they can do. They could do so nuch but the will doesn't seem to be there. There advertising is a waste of time, all the good points about the PS3 they don't mention. looking at the company and not the PS3, it looks like they are cutting there losses and maybe looking to the next Gen and are putting all there effert into that. But it is a shame for the PS3 to be left on its own.

The price cut rumor most definitely can't be hurting sales significantly.

Check out this post I wrote a few days ago.

Curious observation you did there though... Put that together with PSP/PS2 sales dropping and you have a recipe for disaster at SCE. They better get their stuff in place if they want to have a chance at making an eventual PS4 succeed.

Just to add, the playstation brand is everything to Sony, same as the Xbox brand to MS. I know people say it not there core bussiness but with the Xbox for MS it is what people see and the same goes for Sony. If the PS brand fails I think it will be the end of Sony because there Image will go with it. So that is why it supprises me how little they are trying. But maybe they don't have the people at the top clever enought to fight MS.

I seriously can't imagine a Price Cut "RUMOR" lowering sales much at all. The system's price is high, there's a recession. People might go with a cheaper alternative with similar games. And I'm wondering how many people still think a Price cut will come in march. SONY wants cash to and a price cut will only hurt that, the state of the economy has an affect on SONY aswell.

And I always thought that only a small precentage of gamers actually even follow video game news.

The Playstation brand is fine... the PS3 will easily hit 30 million if not 40 and I don't see that as failure in anyway even if the Wii sold 200 million consoles

You're correct, it will easily outsell the Gamecube and Xbox of last gen and that's quite respectable. It'll also be an awesome system for whoever buys it.  Still it'll be a perceived failure by being 3rd (like GC was considered) and a real failure for Sony if it can never become profitable (like the Xbox).  Recooping it's losses I think is already too much to hope for, that'll be left to the PS4.

The PS3 is still the most expensive console, and with the recession and 750,000+ jobs being lost in the last 3 months with people saying thats just the tip of the iceberg, people are hesitant to dump money on a 500 dollar console. Top that off with the fact that Sony has consistantly made bad desicsion after bad desicion and you have a perfect storm of the console not selling well.

Before September I was convinced the PS3 would outsell the 360 this holiday season, after September thats done, the PS3 will stay a distant 3rd this gen unless this recession miracously ends before the Gen is over or unless Sony gets their head out of their collective ass and slashes the PS3's price.

So I take it that nobody is arguing with the sales range I calculated. Which on the low end is actually a death sentence if the other two consoles see growth year over year. Which there is no reason to doubt. Microsoft is coming off of major price cuts, and the Wii is always outdoing itself. The PS3 could literally be evicted from the largest market if Nintendo or Microsoft make a concerted effort over coming months.

The PS3 has already been pushed below 15% in North America, and this past week the PS3 only just matched that. Further more the console derives 38% of its sales in North America which would mean a range between 44,000/66,500. Can a console such as the PS3 survive on those margins?

When I say survive I know there are technically consoles that survived on less, but is this console viable for retailers, or for Sony at those sales points. From what I understand the PS3 needs to sustain a certain level of sales for the production to even work marginally. These figures would imply a lot of negative things. Sony being forced to curtail production effectively sacrificing savings. Liquid assets once again being locked up in physical assets, and so forth.

Those numbers are very low. I am not even comfortable contemplating what the end result would be, but I see no way in which they do not seriously damage the bottom line of Sony. They either lock the console stagnant, or once again drain billions in liquidity. Either way Sony will lose more money. I guess everyone argues against a price cut in February of March, but it might actually happen, because Sony will have no other choice.

No it would not be about being competitive. The cut would be either to maintain liquidity, or to retain savings. The only other possibility is that Sony locks down the console. They curtail production, and make future price reductions within the next year totally impossible. Somewhat damned if they do, and damned if they don't.