well next year wii will pass both snes and nes.
i believe that wii will hit snes sales in april and nes sales during christmas.

Wiis by the end of the year: ~ 45-46M

Minimum Wiis sold in a month: 1.4M (as some of the January are flew in), 1.6M for the other months.

So by 1st April, it is certain.

Earliest possible?

Well, max Wiis in a month:

2.2M. but January will be a lot smaller, so little change of making it in February.

So sometimes in March. I'm guessing mid march.

March 2009.
Nintendo's projected shipment estimate on April 1st is 52 million.

If the SNES actually only sold 49 million total, then the Wii should pass it sometime in Q2 2009. If it sold 60 million, the Wii will be hard pressed to beat it before 2010, but could theoretically do so.

June 2009.

People have some really, really odd predictions here.

Okay, let's say Nintendo ships 1.8M a month now, stockpiling 400K, with 200K for replacements/not being sold. This is relatively pessimistic.

So, if we also go with the probable for the end of the year (slight on the low side), we can say 45M.

After 3 months (1st may) this would be 50.4M (around that). Slightly lower than Nintendo's shipment forecast, so we're really lowballing here.

3 months later, it would have 56M, and by the start of Q4, it would have ~ 62M.

So, there is NO CHANGE that Wii will not beat the SNES before 1st May 09. Predicting otherwise proves you haven't really done any research.

As for Milennium, it looks like the Wii will easily be over 70M, and perhaps over 75M, by the end of the year. The Wii will by no means be hard pressed to make 60M.

First week of March 2009.

NES will be topped sometime in Sept 2009

End of february 2009.

I am going to guess by the first week of February Wii is at 50 million

Late March or early April.

And NES will be de-throned about August-September