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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is there a chance the PS3 WON'T hit 20m this year?

goddog on 23 November 2008
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
SHMUPGurus said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
CrazzyMan said:

perpride???

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 24th Nov 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:

Any reason for PS3 to sell worse with incoming LBP bundles in Europe, PES in Japan, new 160GB models, and other bundles? Not to mention, that PS3 is doing MUCH better in Europe, then VGC estimates are. =)

beacuse its not going to get a price cut like it did last year. the price cut was the key to holiday sales last year, with out them sony has given christmas to wii, and 360

 Flawed logic.

Well, I don't know about that: http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=50079

I mean, it's a very good point.

Didn't MS pull that stunt last year... thought it'd be played out by now.

 

 

thats not ms reporting,  that is the gmaestop guys. (MS did last march, and i thought that was a stunt, much like sony claiming it durring the summer, but thats another thread) 

 

 Buddy... last year it started with gamestop too. If you thought it was a stunt last year then this is the same situation.

And this year MS has to know how much they sold last year at a more expensive price tag. they should be better prepared... especially if they were serious last year. Think about it.

"Hmm... guys last year we this amount of sales and we had shortages so who knows what they could have been. This year we are having a price cut right before the holidays so we should expect higher sales than last year and we should already supply more since last year we couldnt meet demand anyway"

 

you cant just play this off as MS being the only one to do it. sony has done, and nintendo continues to do it by under producing. this seems to be the cool new corporate thing to do... keeps them in the news and spurs a few more sales... I find it incredible to believe that nintendo who makes only one model can not ramp up production to exceeded demand over the time of 2 years.... it points to bad management......  both sony and ms have a small excuse they have multiple models and one of them could eb under produced, but it still points to shoddy management 

 

 

 Nowhere in the post did I say MS was the only one to do it. The guy linked to a post about MS shortages... I responded to MS shortages... why would I mention anything about nintendo or sony? Anyway I also didn't go into detail about it because his response doesnt even make sense. why link an ms shortage thread to a post about sony not being able to keep up with last years numbers to get to 20 mil

 

I admit he could have explained it better. though 360 shortages, should help the ps3 if nothing else. 

I might have gone over board there, but when talking about things like creating shortages, you painted it as though it was something MS does alone. where it has clearly become a strategy of all three players. 



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Max King of the Wild on 23 November 2008
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said: 

there is no flaw in my logic, each price range has a saturation point where sales tail off or do not respond to seasonal boost like they have in the past. sony is at that point right now, if they do not lower prices it will effect holiday sales, there is no if ands or buts.

for further proof check this thread http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=48088   i didnt make any bets in in it, but i fallow it, because there is some top notch data crunching going on in there 

 

 Ok first off the Ps3 sales have been steady all year... now if it started dipping at some point your saturation theory would hold up.

Secondly I already showed data in this thread about last year compared to this year numbers. This year they are 50k behind and Japan making up 30k of that by itself. In others is tracking higher and in America its track 20k less. EDIT: completely forgot to explain why Ps3 sales have been dipping... BECAUSE THE JAPANESE GOT A HUGE RELEASE AT THE SAME TIME THAT APPEALED TO THEM!

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=7695

If Japan starts picking up (Because they havent been interested in the Ps3 AT all this year) I'm sure the Ps3 can track just like they did last year (maybe a little less)

Thirdly need I remind you ioi undertracked the ps3 by about 500k last year what makes you so sure he's got it right this time? (Oh and if he kept his data around this week would actually be tracking higher than last year if he didnt adjust)

he also over tracked them if you believe the npd in the states by 100k so far this year. so do not expect much in the way of under tracking, and the fact that it is steady in a holiday season, and not growing does show saturation. yes I saw your numbers on japan, europe though is also no a sight slide for the holidays, that should be very worry some as that has been sony strong hold.  

and as for making 30k up with a big release, that is also a bad sign, it should not take a big release to keep up with where it was heading last year. 

 

First I'm pretty sure that 100k is over exaggerated. Secondly.... Not growing? Ps3 was at 6k in Japan a couple weeks ago It's at 20k now... It's at 200k at it's normal sales are around 120k-150k Its obviously growing. Third - I posted data showing the holiday period kicks in the week of black friday (well i mean REALLY kicks in) Fourth... so your saying a big release of a game shouldnt push hardware? wth?



goddog on 23 November 2008
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said: 

there is no flaw in my logic, each price range has a saturation point where sales tail off or do not respond to seasonal boost like they have in the past. sony is at that point right now, if they do not lower prices it will effect holiday sales, there is no if ands or buts.

for further proof check this thread http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=48088   i didnt make any bets in in it, but i fallow it, because there is some top notch data crunching going on in there 

 

 Ok first off the Ps3 sales have been steady all year... now if it started dipping at some point your saturation theory would hold up.

Secondly I already showed data in this thread about last year compared to this year numbers. This year they are 50k behind and Japan making up 30k of that by itself. In others is tracking higher and in America its track 20k less. EDIT: completely forgot to explain why Ps3 sales have been dipping... BECAUSE THE JAPANESE GOT A HUGE RELEASE AT THE SAME TIME THAT APPEALED TO THEM!

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=7695

If Japan starts picking up (Because they havent been interested in the Ps3 AT all this year) I'm sure the Ps3 can track just like they did last year (maybe a little less)

Thirdly need I remind you ioi undertracked the ps3 by about 500k last year what makes you so sure he's got it right this time? (Oh and if he kept his data around this week would actually be tracking higher than last year if he didnt adjust)

he also over tracked them if you believe the npd in the states by 100k so far this year. so do not expect much in the way of under tracking, and the fact that it is steady in a holiday season, and not growing does show saturation. yes I saw your numbers on japan, europe though is also no a sight slide for the holidays, that should be very worry some as that has been sony strong hold.  

and as for making 30k up with a big release, that is also a bad sign, it should not take a big release to keep up with where it was heading last year. 

 

First I'm pretty sure that 100k is over exaggerated. Secondly.... Not growing? Ps3 was at 6k in Japan a couple weeks ago It's at 20k now... It's at 200k at it's normal sales are around 120k-150k Its obviously growing. Third - I posted data showing the holiday period kicks in the week of black friday (well i mean REALLY kicks in) Fourth... so your saying a big release of a game shouldnt push hardware? wth?

Im not saying new release shouldnt push hardware, im saying that hardware should have been up without the assistance of software if you consider last years numbers in japan.  

 on the 100k, so you dont trust ioi, or NPD (I dont trust the npd personally and haven't for over a year), what else will you not trust if it does not show favorable numbers.    

200k is low for the lead into holiday season where 150 is good for standard year. you can not compare lead up weeks for the same year to see if growth is healthy for a season, you can compare years, where growth has been flat to down. 

I will give you, wait till black friday, but unless they drop the price i do not see any evidence here that the trend will change

 



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Max King of the Wild on 23 November 2008
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said: 

there is no flaw in my logic, each price range has a saturation point where sales tail off or do not respond to seasonal boost like they have in the past. sony is at that point right now, if they do not lower prices it will effect holiday sales, there is no if ands or buts.

for further proof check this thread http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=48088   i didnt make any bets in in it, but i fallow it, because there is some top notch data crunching going on in there 

 

 Ok first off the Ps3 sales have been steady all year... now if it started dipping at some point your saturation theory would hold up.

Secondly I already showed data in this thread about last year compared to this year numbers. This year they are 50k behind and Japan making up 30k of that by itself. In others is tracking higher and in America its track 20k less. EDIT: completely forgot to explain why Ps3 sales have been dipping... BECAUSE THE JAPANESE GOT A HUGE RELEASE AT THE SAME TIME THAT APPEALED TO THEM!

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=7695

If Japan starts picking up (Because they havent been interested in the Ps3 AT all this year) I'm sure the Ps3 can track just like they did last year (maybe a little less)

Thirdly need I remind you ioi undertracked the ps3 by about 500k last year what makes you so sure he's got it right this time? (Oh and if he kept his data around this week would actually be tracking higher than last year if he didnt adjust)

he also over tracked them if you believe the npd in the states by 100k so far this year. so do not expect much in the way of under tracking, and the fact that it is steady in a holiday season, and not growing does show saturation. yes I saw your numbers on japan, europe though is also no a sight slide for the holidays, that should be very worry some as that has been sony strong hold.  

and as for making 30k up with a big release, that is also a bad sign, it should not take a big release to keep up with where it was heading last year. 

 

First I'm pretty sure that 100k is over exaggerated. Secondly.... Not growing? Ps3 was at 6k in Japan a couple weeks ago It's at 20k now... It's at 200k at it's normal sales are around 120k-150k Its obviously growing. Third - I posted data showing the holiday period kicks in the week of black friday (well i mean REALLY kicks in) Fourth... so your saying a big release of a game shouldnt push hardware? wth?

Im not saying new release shouldnt push hardware, im saying that hardware should have been up without the assistance of software if you consider last years numbers in japan.  

 on the 100k, so you dont trust ioi, or NPD (I dont trust the npd personally and haven't for over a year), what else will you not trust if it does not show favorable numbers.    

200k is low for the lead into holiday season where 150 is good for standard year. you can not compare lead up weeks for the same year to see if growth is healthy for a season, you can compare years, where growth has been flat to down. 

I will give you, wait till black friday, but unless they drop the price i do not see any evidence here that the trend will change

 

 

 The only reason I come back to this site regularly is because I know ioi will adjust the numbers after financials come out. (he was pretty spot on last quarter and I have my doubts this quarter. that however is a different thread) So basically I only trust official numbers and this site after those numbers come out.

And I'm saying last year the Ps3 had Dynasty Warriors 6 release... the Ps3 obviously recieved a boost from it. Just because it isnt tracking the same the same weeks doesnt mean in wont track the same when all is said and done (DW6 may be big but I think WKC is bigger)



stephen700 on 23 November 2008

Not a chance mabey 19millon if lucky ! the X360 and PS3 have similar Hardcore market appeal - but X360 is way cheaper so it will take the bulk of hardcore sales.
As for the huge casual market (anything which is not an FPS) Nintendo own that because sony have basically totally ignored this part of the market with crap support and late or non-deliveries of features and titles.

Hardly supprising Nintendo is gonna own this XMAS along with X360 holding their share too, and the PS3 will probably only appeal as an overpriced blu-ray player which is the main thing i use my unit for.
Such a pity to see the pathetic software support the PS3 is getting from sony zero support for developers to make games with PS3 features it's like they are purposly trying to fail - i guess that way they make less losses because the HW sells at a loss right - but why bother in the first place then.
I my NEW estimation of the end of year sales - i think MS is has extended their lead to 6 million consoles this year. I would go Wii=43.5Mill X360=26Mill PS3=18.5Mill which will give Nintendo 49.5% of the market - MS around 29.5% and PS3 21%.

19 Million is still a reasonably large number of units sold - though that wont happen this year.



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TWRoO on 23 November 2008
CrazzyMan said:

perpride???

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 24th Nov 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:

Console PS3
Total
2,748,170
America
1,073,866
Japan
301,090
Total Others
1,373,214

Any reason for PS3 to sell worse with incoming LBP bundles in Europe, PES in Japan, new 160GB models, and other bundles? Not to mention, that PS3 is doing MUCH better in Europe, then VGC estimates are. =)

Not all of "other" is PAL regions though.... the X360 does pretty good in East asian markets (some of which PS3 hasn't released yet) which is not PAL territory.

 



Kasz216 on 23 November 2008
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said: 

there is no flaw in my logic, each price range has a saturation point where sales tail off or do not respond to seasonal boost like they have in the past. sony is at that point right now, if they do not lower prices it will effect holiday sales, there is no if ands or buts.

for further proof check this thread http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=48088   i didnt make any bets in in it, but i fallow it, because there is some top notch data crunching going on in there 

 

 Ok first off the Ps3 sales have been steady all year... now if it started dipping at some point your saturation theory would hold up.

Secondly I already showed data in this thread about last year compared to this year numbers. This year they are 50k behind and Japan making up 30k of that by itself. In others is tracking higher and in America its track 20k less. EDIT: completely forgot to explain why Ps3 sales have been dipping... BECAUSE THE JAPANESE GOT A HUGE RELEASE AT THE SAME TIME THAT APPEALED TO THEM!

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=7695

If Japan starts picking up (Because they havent been interested in the Ps3 AT all this year) I'm sure the Ps3 can track just like they did last year (maybe a little less)

Thirdly need I remind you ioi undertracked the ps3 by about 500k last year what makes you so sure he's got it right this time? (Oh and if he kept his data around this week would actually be tracking higher than last year if he didnt adjust)

he also over tracked them if you believe the npd in the states by 100k so far this year. so do not expect much in the way of under tracking, and the fact that it is steady in a holiday season, and not growing does show saturation. yes I saw your numbers on japan, europe though is also no a sight slide for the holidays, that should be very worry some as that has been sony strong hold.  

and as for making 30k up with a big release, that is also a bad sign, it should not take a big release to keep up with where it was heading last year. 

 

First I'm pretty sure that 100k is over exaggerated. Secondly.... Not growing? Ps3 was at 6k in Japan a couple weeks ago It's at 20k now... It's at 200k at it's normal sales are around 120k-150k Its obviously growing. Third - I posted data showing the holiday period kicks in the week of black friday (well i mean REALLY kicks in) Fourth... so your saying a big release of a game shouldnt push hardware? wth?

Im not saying new release shouldnt push hardware, im saying that hardware should have been up without the assistance of software if you consider last years numbers in japan.  

 on the 100k, so you dont trust ioi, or NPD (I dont trust the npd personally and haven't for over a year), what else will you not trust if it does not show favorable numbers.    

200k is low for the lead into holiday season where 150 is good for standard year. you can not compare lead up weeks for the same year to see if growth is healthy for a season, you can compare years, where growth has been flat to down. 

I will give you, wait till black friday, but unless they drop the price i do not see any evidence here that the trend will change

 

 

 The only reason I come back to this site regularly is because I know ioi will adjust the numbers after financials come out. (he was pretty spot on last quarter and I have my doubts this quarter. that however is a different thread) So basically I only trust official numbers and this site after those numbers come out.

And I'm saying last year the Ps3 had Dynasty Warriors 6 release... the Ps3 obviously recieved a boost from it. Just because it isnt tracking the same the same weeks doesnt mean in wont track the same when all is said and done (DW6 may be big but I think WKC is bigger)

You may be surprised there.

In Japan DW6 is the 3rd best selling PS3 game in Japan behind MGS4 and Hot Shots Golf.  Is WKC going to be bigger then GT5P or PES2008?

 



Chrizum on 23 November 2008

I was 95% certain it was going to break 21 million at least just a month ago. Oh how depressing it has gotten now. It seems the PS3 is the only console really hurting from the financial crisis, probably because of its high price.

I don't think PS3 will break 20 million this year.



Pristine20 on 23 November 2008

It won't. This is not a "chance" matter



"Dr. Tenma, according to you, lives are equal. That's why I live today. But you must have realised it by now...the only thing people are equal in is death"---Johann Liebert (MONSTER)

"WAR is a racket. It always has been.

It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler

WiiStation360 on 23 November 2008

There are 7 weeks of sales left in the year. 

Lets compared the sales for Oct-mid Nov 2007 (7weeks) to the sales for the rest of 2007 (7 weeks) to get a estimate of the holiday bump for consoles.

 

PS3 360 Wii
06th Oct 2007 to 17th Nov 2007 1,183,136 1,401,873 2,061,954
24th Nov 2007 to 05th Jan 2008 3,050,990 2,783,488 5,391,289
Percent Increase 258% 199% 261%

Now, lets look at the Oct-mid Nov 2008 7 week number for 2008.

 

PS3 360 Wii
04th Oct 2008 to 15th Nov 2008 1,198,380 1,658,605 3,173,150

If we assume that every console gets a bump between the low-high for last year, the next 7 weeks should look like this.

 

PS3 360 Wii
199% Increase          2,379,443          3,293,242          6,300,446
261% Increase          3,133,345          4,336,672          8,296,678

 

That give us end of the year end sales range of the following.

 

PS3 360 Wii
Current 16,893,063 22,926,812 36,614,033
Min 2008         19,272,506         26,220,054         42,914,479
Max 2008         20,026,408         27,263,484         44,910,711

So the PS3 will most likely fall just short of 20M consoles this year.  Unless it can at least match the Wii sales boost for last Holiday season.