There are 7 weeks of sales left in the year.
Lets compared the sales for Oct-mid Nov 2007 (7weeks) to the sales for the rest of 2007 (7 weeks) to get a estimate of the holiday bump for consoles.
PS3 | 360 | Wii | |
06th Oct 2007 to 17th Nov 2007 | 1,183,136 | 1,401,873 | 2,061,954 |
24th Nov 2007 to 05th Jan 2008 | 3,050,990 | 2,783,488 | 5,391,289 |
Percent Increase | 258% | 199% | 261% |
Now, lets look at the Oct-mid Nov 2008 7 week number for 2008.
PS3 | 360 | Wii | |
04th Oct 2008 to 15th Nov 2008 | 1,198,380 | 1,658,605 | 3,173,150 |
If we assume that every console gets a bump between the low-high for last year, the next 7 weeks should look like this.
PS3 | 360 | Wii | |
199% Increase | 2,379,443 | 3,293,242 | 6,300,446 |
261% Increase | 3,133,345 | 4,336,672 | 8,296,678 |
That give us end of the year end sales range of the following.
PS3 | 360 | Wii | |
Current | 16,893,063 | 22,926,812 | 36,614,033 |
Min 2008 | 19,272,506 | 26,220,054 | 42,914,479 |
Max 2008 | 20,026,408 | 27,263,484 | 44,910,711 |
So the PS3 will most likely fall just short of 20M consoles this year. Unless it can at least match the Wii sales boost for last Holiday season.