Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:
Max King of the Wild said:
| goddog said:
there is no flaw in my logic, each price range has a saturation point where sales tail off or do not respond to seasonal boost like they have in the past. sony is at that point right now, if they do not lower prices it will effect holiday sales, there is no if ands or buts.
for further proof check this thread http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=48088 i didnt make any bets in in it, but i fallow it, because there is some top notch data crunching going on in there
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Ok first off the Ps3 sales have been steady all year... now if it started dipping at some point your saturation theory would hold up.
Secondly I already showed data in this thread about last year compared to this year numbers. This year they are 50k behind and Japan making up 30k of that by itself. In others is tracking higher and in America its track 20k less. EDIT: completely forgot to explain why Ps3 sales have been dipping... BECAUSE THE JAPANESE GOT A HUGE RELEASE AT THE SAME TIME THAT APPEALED TO THEM!
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=7695
If Japan starts picking up (Because they havent been interested in the Ps3 AT all this year) I'm sure the Ps3 can track just like they did last year (maybe a little less)
Thirdly need I remind you ioi undertracked the ps3 by about 500k last year what makes you so sure he's got it right this time? (Oh and if he kept his data around this week would actually be tracking higher than last year if he didnt adjust)
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he also over tracked them if you believe the npd in the states by 100k so far this year. so do not expect much in the way of under tracking, and the fact that it is steady in a holiday season, and not growing does show saturation. yes I saw your numbers on japan, europe though is also no a sight slide for the holidays, that should be very worry some as that has been sony strong hold.
and as for making 30k up with a big release, that is also a bad sign, it should not take a big release to keep up with where it was heading last year.
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First I'm pretty sure that 100k is over exaggerated. Secondly.... Not growing? Ps3 was at 6k in Japan a couple weeks ago It's at 20k now... It's at 200k at it's normal sales are around 120k-150k Its obviously growing. Third - I posted data showing the holiday period kicks in the week of black friday (well i mean REALLY kicks in) Fourth... so your saying a big release of a game shouldnt push hardware? wth?
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Im not saying new release shouldnt push hardware, im saying that hardware should have been up without the assistance of software if you consider last years numbers in japan.
on the 100k, so you dont trust ioi, or NPD (I dont trust the npd personally and haven't for over a year), what else will you not trust if it does not show favorable numbers.
200k is low for the lead into holiday season where 150 is good for standard year. you can not compare lead up weeks for the same year to see if growth is healthy for a season, you can compare years, where growth has been flat to down.
I will give you, wait till black friday, but unless they drop the price i do not see any evidence here that the trend will change
