How well will Gran Turismo 5 do?

Snake612

Currently Offline

45,171

3480 posts since 07/05/08

Recent Badges:

First Rung Of The Ladder Earned 10,000 gamrPoints
3 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 3 years.
Brotherhood 100 friends on gamrConnect.
The Nuts & Bolts Add a total of 25 games to your collection.
Mr. Punctual 10 game release dates added to the VGChartz database.
Quite a Comeback Enter your first Prediction League event.

Snake612 on 16 November 2008

It depends on if there is a worlwide release. If so, Grand Turismo 5 will sell 1.5 million first week of sales. Lifetime sales will probably be between 10 million-15million copies worldwide. Grand Tursimo is a huge franchise. It will definitely sell pretty well.

TO GOD BE THE GLORY

makingmusic476

Currently Offline

124,860

18687 posts since 09/05/07

Recent Badges:

6 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 6 years.
12 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 12 years.
Dare To Do The Impossible 3,000 replies made to user's most popular thread.
Social Butterfly 50 friends on gamrConnect.
We're Still Watching You Received 50,000 profile views.
Making Progress Earned 50,000 gamrPoints

makingmusic476 on 16 November 2008

Oyvoyvoyv said:

Oh, yeah. This might be relevant.

For the time GT3 sold most of its sales, Ps2 had these userbases in the different areas.

Others: 3.1M to 16.7M

Americas: 3.4M to 21.5M

Japan: 5.6M to 13.4M

GT3 sold this in that period:

Others: ~ 5M

Americas: ~ 6.5M

Japan: ~ 1.9M

So, with this, I would say this.

GT5:

Others: 5-7M

Americas: 4-6M

Japan: ~ 1M

So I see it as a definate 10M seller.

I basically agree with this.

Though I can't help but feel that with GT5's lengthy development cycle and the entrance of Forza on the scene, GT's hype will be deflated somehwat (though very little), so it may barely reach the 10 million mark.

Dgc1808

Currently Offline

71,773

18942 posts since 15/06/08

Recent Badges:

Genocide 5,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
Trust Me, It'll Have Legs 100 replies made to user's most popular thread.
4 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 4 years.
Artiste 100 video game banners added to the VGChartz database.
16 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 16 years.
'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.

Dgc1808 on 16 November 2008

If MGS4 got 1.3M first day... I say GT5 2.1M First Day.....

8.5-11M LTD

4 ≈ One

coolestguyever

Banned

7,754

5907 posts since 01/01/08

Recent Badges:

Littlest Genocide 1,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
Thumbs Up Receive an Upvote on One of Your User Reviews.
Quite a Comeback Enter your first Prediction League event.
Making Friends 10 friends on gamrConnect.
Trust Me, It'll Have Legs 100 replies made to user's most popular thread.
Open For Business Earned 10 badges.

coolestguyever on 16 November 2008

Probably 2 million first week worldwide

I'd give it 8-9 million lifetime.

Slimebeast

Currently Offline

75,594

20941 posts since 06/06/07

Recent Badges:

10 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 10 years.
Site Veteran Has been a VGChartz member for over 5 years.
'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
50 in One Add a total of 50 games to your collection.
Everything's Falling Into Place Add a total of 100 games to your collection.
Trust Me, It'll Have Legs 100 replies made to user's most popular thread.

Currently Playing:

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (PS3)
Dark Souls (PS3)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (PS3)
Demon's Souls (PS3)

Slimebeast on 16 November 2008

Back when GT was big people also liked Whipeout...

Racing games aren't that popular anymore.

But still, sales of 5.5-6 million copies of GT5 ww lifetime isn't impossable.

haxxiy

Currently Offline

38,486

9405 posts since 21/10/08

Recent Badges:

12 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 12 years.
Happy Birthday Logged in on your birthday.
Congratulations on Pressing Start! Score your first game in your collection.
Littlest Genocide 1,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
Place Your Bets Now Enter 10 Prediction League events.
15 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 15 years.

haxxiy on 16 November 2008

I can see it reaching 33% of attach rate juss like GTAIV did in Americas... so considering its release at late 2009 it would reach 10 million.

Max King of the Wild

Banned

40,035

11046 posts since 25/10/08

Recent Badges:

Watch Your Back! Received 10,000 profile views.
Leaving Limbo 100 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
So You Came Back For More, Huh? Logged in a second time.
A Badge Within A Badge Earned 20 badges.
3 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 3 years.
Littlest Genocide 1,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.

Max King of the Wild on 16 November 2008

atma998 said:
Ok let's use logic here...

GT4 did 10 millions on a userbase of 125 millions PS2. Why a GT5 on a 20-30 millions userbase would do better?

GT3 did about 14 millions on a smaller userbase right but also on the most popular console of its time. So the userbase increased very quickly as GT3 sales.

Now PS3 is a far different story. It's the less popular console of its time. Plus GT5 have solid competition this gen in the name of Motorstorm. Also no game on PS3 is close to 10 millions even GTAIV which is considered by many as 'the game of the gen'.

conclusion : GT5 will do around 4 millions LTD Worldwide.

I'm waiting for the logic..... any time now.

Oyvoyvoyv

Currently Offline

6,881

5151 posts since 02/10/07

Recent Badges:

11 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 11 years.
Mirror Image Awarded for uploading an avatar.
14 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 14 years.
8 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 8 years.
16 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 16 years.
Dead or Alive Win VG$500 in total.

Oyvoyvoyv on 16 November 2008

Mummelmann said:

Oyvoyvoyv said:

Oh, yeah. This might be relevant.

For the time GT3 sold most of its sales, Ps2 had these userbases in the different areas.

Others: 3.1M to 16.7M

Americas: 3.4M to 21.5M

Japan: 5.6M to 13.4M

GT3 sold this in that period:

Others: ~ 5M

Americas: ~ 6.5M

Japan: ~ 1.9M

So, with this, I would say this.

GT5:

Others: 5-7M

Americas: 4-6M

Japan: ~ 1M

So I see it as a definate 10M seller.

I agree with this, GT 3 stayed in many top 20 bestseller lists for 3-4 or even 5 years in some places and is the very definition of legs in my book. I don't know why people suddenly expect this series to have half or one third of the sales from previous installments, makes little sense despite the relatively low (current) install base.

Before I wrote the post in this thread, I was one of those people. I originally wrote it as "Why I don't see GT5 making 10M". Then I looked at the data, and realized I was wrong, and had to change the entire post.

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS