gee you people type so fast. I can't keep up. heh

Nonquihote said: Desroko said: Nonquihote said: So is PS2s 120 million user base insignificant ? +1.2 billion in software sold. Casual dont buy enough games to be that biog a deal.       You assume that every PS2 owner is a core gamer? The mainstream audience, not the core gamers, powered the PS2's success. These are the people who conspicuously refusing to make good on their mythic "brand loyalty" to Sony and purchase a PS3.    So wii is not the casual break through wii fanboys make it out to be, other console has done it.   It really is just price.

No offense... but if the Xbox 360, Wii and PS3 were all $250.00 I'd still get the Wii first.  Then likely the PS3 because it'll have the best japanese tactic games, then a 360.

You can call me a casual player if you want.  Though I've been playin games since the Balley Astrocade, haven't stopped and likely will own all 3 systems by the end of this generation.

In real practice I'll probably end up going Wii, 360, PS3.  Wii because i already got it as a gift, I didn't buy the motion sensing till i played it, now that i have it i'm glad i got it.  PS3 will likely be next because i'm likely going to end up moving in with someone with a 360.  Otherwise i'd probably go with the cheaper 360 because I don't really feel like paying for a blu-ray function i'm not gonna use.  When you've got 6-7 systems you play regularly it just makes sense to have a bunch of cheap TVs as opposed to one huge HD TV.  Too annoying to switch between the systems I want to play. 

I don't think there's much of a chance of the Wii getting beaten in market share this generation. It's already at the best price point, and that point is only going to get lower. Couple this with a lower development cost and a new way to control games, and you get something that a lot of people might pick up just to try it out.

As far as gaming goes, however, in reality most core gamers are going to want to pick up two systems this gen, for the simple fact that...
A: More meaty graphic/physics games will be put to the PS3/360 for the fact it's built much more closely to a PC's specs.
B: More unique/creative games will be put out to the Wii, for the fact it has motion sensing/IR pointer controls.

Not saying that PS3/360 will get no unique games or that the Wii will get no meaty, involving games, but that's up to the developers. I just see it that the control system for the Wii will demand unique, intuitive control systems to sell games, where as the PS3/360 will be a lot easier to develop games right off powerful PC workstations using those forms of tools.

robjoh said: marc said: robjoh said: That doesn't matters in Japan, the DS and the PSP is around the same price in Japan, I think we will see the same thing with PS3 vs Wii. Simply because it is Wii that has Wii Sport. I memory serves me, the PSP was around $250 at release vs DS at $150. Thats a very big difference especially when you consider that its a handheld but at least that sold and is selling decently well. The irony is that Sony didnt learn from that lesson and make the same mistake with the PS3. The Wii simply appeals to a wider market including (oh the irony again) the most hardcore gamer who already has a high performance machine and wants a nice get-away from the norm. What I was trying to point out was that the PSP now has the same price as the PSP. The PSP had actualy a quit good start, but it fell of when DS got some killer games. The same is true for the PS3, it doesn't have the games for the japanese market meanwhile Nintendo has the killer apps in Wii Sport.

I dont believe this is the case. I think more than 50% of the sales are due to price alone. If what you say was true then the Saturn and N64 would have trumped the original PS but that didnt happen. What happened was the most expensive console failed (Saturn) and the N64 went into direct competition with the PS. Nintendo already had their "killer apps" including one of the most highly rated games of all time in Ocarina of time yet they still didnt do very well. The PS won that generation because their technology was easier to use and cheaper to produce (CDs), they offered ok games initially that could compete with Nintendos offerings and most noteable the price was on par with the N64.

If by 2010 the Wii will cost 100$ I´ll buy one for every room in the house.

To answer the original question, aside from catastrophic reasons (Nintendo factories bien blasted, Earth being destroyed, etc.)... I don't see any way the Wii could not achieve dominance of this generation.

Not even X360/PS3 price cuts, suposed system-sellers, suposed awesome graphics... I don't see any of that stopping the Wii.

As much as price, it's reputation. Nintendo has wrangled some Serious PR and has ALWAYS had the reputation of being family friendly and having games that are fun even if not complicated or deeply involved plots, etc. This was practically a curse to them before, now they've turned it into a blessing.

Microsoft is having the trouble of having consoles break down on them, and it is a widespread enough problem that has gotten media attention. People are beginning to not trust the brand as a reliable purchase.

Sony has the complexity issue. Sure, it has all these features, but even the people who like Sony and the PS3 have admitted that the interface simply isn't user friendly. Still, in my eyes, they are becoming a more reliable alternative to 360, and also shows signs of getting games that are visually appealing AND come across as fresh and fun. If the PS3 was priced at $300-$400(with wireless) I'd consider getting one now.


The way I see it, Microsoft is going to come out the loser in the battle with the PS3. Maybe not by much, but PS3 is beginning to overcome its initial bad PR, Bluray is showing itself to not be a total bomb, and it also has been consistently updating its firmware, adding on new features, and has some games that look FUN rather than S0 H4RDC0R3 & CH4113NG1NG!!1! Or games that are only considered great games AFTER you pay additional money for the extra content.


The Wii will come out on top, unless something major happens. I'll list out the threats that I see to Nintendo's continued dominance:

~PS3 and 360 both somehow pricedrop to $250 and Nintendo doesn't immediately pricedrop to $200.
Nintendo can afford it to do it, and so they should make sure to at least keep $50 below whatever the other consoles are hitting. Provided they do that, they'll remain the best deal for the prospective gamer looking to hop into things.
Nintendo could get arrogant again and, by the time that happens, claim that PS3 and 360 are dead anyway and it would be pointless to pricedrop, but by now they should have learned the dangers of such arrogance. My expectation is that they will do the smart thing and drop down to stay ahead of the competition, no matter how small it is.

~All 3rd party titles are crap.
This I see as a slim possibility. Boogie, Dewey's Adventure, Nights, and No More Heroes are all looking really good, and there have already been other 3rd parties that have managed good titles already, like Resident Evil 4(even if it is a port, this port shows the different controls can actually make the game better compared to its previous release)
The one danger that I do see is that 3rd party developers may not be able to define their games as being different from all other games of the same genre. Like all tennis games play the same, or all FPS play the same. 3rd party developers need to work on creating more unique stories and better storytelling methods so that even if the control style feels the same, it'll definitely feel like a different game.

~Nintendo abandons "hardcore"
Don't see this happening. I do see that there will be a LOT of casual stuff, but just like the PS2, there will always be something for that Niche audience as well. The casual markets will take more initial forethought to producing, but won't take as much effort to design, while the hardcore stuff takes little forethought, but more effort to design.
Also, as someone pointed out, E3 seemed to focus all on the Casual stuff. They forget that E3 is the big public display that is possibly the only thing the casual gamer might notice about Nintendo. The hardcore gamers already have websites that they check daily on the games that they are interested in.
It's sorta like a swimming pool. The pool has just been made bigger to make room for a bunch of toddlers that have never swam before. Sure, the casual swimmers may be taking up the whole shallow side of the pool, but we get the deep end to swim in.

~HDTVs become COMPLETELY standardized at 1080p.
This one is really slim. Even if HDTV becomes the norm, people still need to have a large enough TV to notice the difference between standard def and 720p or 1080p. If the standard TOTALLY shifts to HDTV in the next 2 years, then PS3 will get the biggest advantage, but it won't knock Nintendo out, it'll just speed up their competition. Remember, nothing STOPS you from playing with the Wii on an HDTV.

~Nintendo releases an HDWii.
I wouldn't object to this personally, but it would be absolutely essential that this ONLY happens if HDTV becomes THE standard, and that it also supports ALL previous games AND upscales them. There will be significant backlash otherwise.

~[Future battle]HDTV becomes a standard AFTER Nintendo announces their next console.
I don't see how Nintendo can upgrade the Wii unless HDTVs become the standard which will make an HDWii necessary. While PS4 and Xbox 720 might try to incorporate motion controls, the HDWii will be able to retain the advantage through backwards compatibility. It will likely stay as the king during this generation, and with this will already have a full back catalog of motion control designed games to start from, while PS4 and 720 would have to start from scratch or ports.
If this opportunity doesn't become available for Nintendo, they may end up missing out, or the PS4 and 720 may simply get too much of a lead for Nintendo to do more than simply stay competitive.

Desroko said: Nonquihote said: Desroko said: Nonquihote said: So is PS2s 120 million user base insignificant ? +1.2 billion in software sold. Casual dont buy enough games to be that biog a deal.       You assume that every PS2 owner is a core gamer? The mainstream audience, not the core gamers, powered the PS2's success. These are the people who conspicuously refusing to make good on their mythic "brand loyalty" to Sony and purchase a PS3.   So wii is not the casual break through wii fanboys make it out to be, other console has done it. It really is just price. No, not really. Price is a huge factor, but the Wii is also selling because, above all, it's something different and exciting. Core gamers in general are out of touch with the market on this issue. I wonder if you realize the conclusion that the bolded portion implicitly endorses.

Nicely reasoned.

 

THATS IT!!!!!! Wii fit wat if noone likes it?!!!! What if they do like it you cant say it will be good or it will sell bad without seeing how its selling!!!! This is like fighting with 10 year olds!!! Yes its likely the wii will win this gen, but no its not impossible for sony to take the crown. As for micrsoft there screwed again.

leo-j said: THATS IT!!!!!! Wii fit wat if noone likes it?!!!! What if they do like it you cant say it will be good or it will sell bad without seeing how its selling!!!! This is like fighting with 10 year olds!!! Yes its likely the wii will win this gen, but no its not impossible for sony to take the crown. As for micrsoft there screwed again.

The reasonable people here aren't saying it's literally impossible, Leo. After all, wasn't it possible that the Gamecube could have gone on and sold 100 million more units in its last 2 years of existance? That was technically possible. Heck, they could restart production right now! That's possible. It's just hilariously unlikely.

Similarly, it's very unlikely that the PS3 will rebound from poor sales, poor profits and poor install base to overcome. It's possible, Leo, but historically speaking, it's very unlikely. Unprecedented, in fact.