"Just like in 2007 MS did not make a big deal about 2008 titles until 2008."

This is another statement that is not quite true. Almost all of the big titles on the 360 this year had been in discussion for several years. Fable II, Too Human, Ninja Gaiden II (And I know that Dave Halverson had mentioned Banjo and Kazooie in Play a few years ago as well). Each of these games were known about as far back as 2005. Really of the big 360 titles discussed that far back, only Alan Wake has yet to be released. The only big surprises to appear on the 360 this year were Gears of War 2 (which most people knew would be a reality someday, yet it wasn't announced until GDC 2008. The place Microsoft likes to make their big announcements and where I'm expecting a bombshell of an announcement in '09), Star Ocean 4, Final Fantasy XIII, and Tales of Vesperia.

There are some cancelled and / or anticipated yet unannounced games that were supposed to be on the original xbox that I would like to see come in 2009 for 360 including Voodoo Vince 2, The Unseen, Shenmue 3, and B.C.

"Hiiiin wrong again .... trilogy denial :

http://www.shacknews.com/featuredarticle.x?id=1041

Sorry for this off-topic posting."

All that amounts to is standard PR himing and hahing. And he is basically saying Microsoft is interested in Gears 3 but they haven't put anything on paper yet. "Trilogy Denial" is a joke, and this is Probably the same type of stuff that was coming out of Bungie prior to the December 2004 issue of OXM. Without Gears 3, Microsoft would be releasing a $500.00 - $600.00 console on the market with no strong lead title (and we all know how that has turned out for Sony).

 I agree, I think MS will go for the Apple pricing model from here on in where they don't really drop the price, just keep adding new features to the lower models. Especially as the NXE requires a hard drive for an install, it may even coincide with the launch of the slim 360.

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see a $199 360 slim with a 60GB hard drive around mid 2009 and if that happens then 40million by end of 2009 is a very likely outcome.

Its going to sell past 26 million by 09, so 4 mill in one year? It can do that at christmas alone next year.

Ive thought about the slim alot, and i dont think next year is right for it. they still have other things they can do to push sales. look for a slim in 2010 with the next gen coming out in 2012 if im right, that would give a small boost to the 360s back side sales before production of it is ended in 2014, two years into the next gens life

The whole suggestion that the next xbox is coming out in two years is not only silly, but is also directly contradicted by the statements from Microsoft's CFO yesterday (the infamous 100M units statement).

CFO's don't lie because they go to jail when they do.

So we may doubt that the 360 will actually reach this milestone. But we should not doubt that Microsoft is going to planning to make a real run at trying to get there. So we should take the statement as "We are planning to push the 360 hard with the hope of getting to 100M units sold".

This kind of statement also means that there are no plans to stop pushing the 360 for the foreseeable future. The plausible way for Microsoft to get to 100M would be:

EOY 2009: 40M
EOY 2010: 55M (priced at $200 for the slim 60GB model)
EOY 2011: 70M
EOY 2012: 85M (priced at $120 for the whole year, introducing the next xbox)
EOY 2013: 93M (selling side to side with the new xbox)
EOY 2014: 98M (priced at $99 selling side to side with the new xbox)
EOY 2015: 103M - last holiday season

Based on this roadmap I would expect a new Xbox not earlier than EOY 2012 - 4 years from now.

Halo 3 was not unveiled until E3 2006.  Yes I have been a subscriber to OXM since the first XBOX came out.  Sure there were articles about what people hoped/wanted for Halo 3, but nothing from Bungie.  Sure we knew Halo 3 was coming. We also know Halo 4 is coming.  Certainly over the next 3 years MS is going to be trying to create the next big franchise before a 2011 or 2012 NextBox release.

Look MS wants to be profitable with the Xbox 360 and any thought of a 2009 release of a new consoles is foolishness. The 360 is entering its prime profitablity wise and MS is not going to end that prematurely. Particulary with a bad economy.

"Look MS wants to be profitable with the Xbox 360 and any thought of a 2009 release of a new consoles is foolishness."

"Based on this roadmap I would expect a new Xbox not earlier than EOY 2012 - 4 years from now."

Well, then don't expect a new Gears game until then either as Epic will want it on the Nextbox to show off what they can do with the next UT engine, and they really pushed the 360 as far as it can go with Gears 2. So what game is going to help the 360 to reach that 100 million mark you folks are speculating about here? Only two games have ever shown the ability to move xbox consoles and as I pointed out with one of those being on its decline and the other being postponed 'till 2012 0r 2013 as you say, 360 sales just won't pick up enough to reach that mark. It would be at 50,000 ltd at the end of its run.




"During 2009 Microsoft will sell 11M units of 360 and will reach 40M installed base no later than then the end of Q1 2010.

Sony will sell no more than 9M units during 2009."

Sony will whip the 360 in 2009, 2010 and beyond. Starting in January 2009, the PS3 library of games will be the most prestigious on the market until the release of the next round of consoles and the only two games on any console that will rival what Sony will be bringing to the market are the next Mario and Zelda games to be released on the Wii in 2010. In the mean time without games like Gears of War with Halo on its downward spiral, and with most of the 360's heavy hitters having been released on the market during the last two years and most of their attempts at original IP's turning out to be disappointments (Too Human, Ninja Gaiden II, Infinite Undiscovery, etc) the 360 will start to stagnate like the Genesis in its latter years. The 3 most hyped games for the 360 during the next year Halo: Recon, Halo Wars, and Alan Wake will almost certainly do no better than an 88, an 85 to 87, and somewhere in the 70's respectively in their Game Rankings scores, and I expect none of the other titles that they would bring out (if you check the names of the studios making 360 exclusives during the next year, very few of them have any history at all in the games arena) will fare no better. Rare is certainly not a developer to look to for help as the highest reviewed game that they've been able to come out with in their last five tries is an 85. And that wasn't even for their last game.

So Microsoft has two choices. Not bring out a new xbox console until 2012, as some of you say, keep on going as they are and just let Sony catch up and pass them over the next year to year and a half while waiting till 2012 to bring out a new console.

Or they could follow the path that has brought them so much success this gen -- roughly the same path they were on during the transition from the original xbox to the 360. They know that the next Nintendo console is going to be no more powerful in respect to the current 360 or PS3 than the Wii is to last gen consoles, so they can get to work on their next super machine now. Announce it for release some time in 2009 or 2010 and have Gears of War 3 be the game that justifies its purchase at the price tag it will undoubtably carry.
Such a new system and announcement of Gears 3 would be able to mitigate a great deal of the thunder that otherwise the PS3's library of games will have for the next few years.


A 3rd option would be to bring out Gears 3 on the 360 in 2010. It would really not show any more improvements in design, graphics, etc than Gears 2 at that time. It would basically lead to a downward spiral for the Gears series much like the one the Halo series is on; then try to sell a $600.00 system in 2012 with no strong title to justify large sales for such an expensive system.

"Yes I have been a subscriber to OXM since the first XBOX came out. Sure there were articles about what people hoped/wanted for Halo 3, but nothing from Bungie."

Everybody knew that Halo 3 was going to be coming to the 360 as soon as the 360 was announced. I guess you people want a link to suggest that. Well, I can't quickly find a link that mentions Halo 3 being announced for the 360 prior to E3 2006, but you would have had to have been living under a rock at an earlier date than that if you didn't know that a new xbox console also meant a new installment in the Halo series was going to be exclusively on the system.

Why do you bother? Its like you have some sick obsession with the 360 failing. 

You can make essays but it doesn't change the facts kiddo. 5.84 Million behind and growing. Get over it.