Well usually for games like this they are heavily frontloaded.  Meaning if it were to release for a full 7 days, at least 50% of the sales would have come in the first 2 days if not the first day.  Meaning if I had to guess in the first 2 days, or our first tracking week, I'd suspect about 2.5 million with about 700k-1 million in the next week which is really amazing anyways.  But I could see a very bold scenario in 2.75 in the opening week and 1.25 million in the second week to replicate that 4 million in 9 days as this thread states.  I really couldn't see it many other ways.  3 million in 2 days would be something else which is why I have issues with that.  I mean I don't even think a Halo property good do that haha.  I mean Halo 3  got 1.8 million in its first day and to think it could sell another 1.2 million in the second one is hard to imagine.  More than likely half of that or 900k at most which is 2.7 million. 

That is why the 2.75 million opening week I call very bold but given back to what I said over a week ago about the gaming market growth being so large that it might be able to make a game like Gears into somehting like that.

I think the advantage is that Gears 2 *did* release near a weekend, where most gamers buy games, and play over the weekend. Also, it has the advantage of getting 2 full weekends of sales before Week-2 is out. I really don't think having an extra 3 days of weekdays is going to give Gears 2 some sort of insane boost.

Here's the way I look at it *assuming it is as frontloaded as Halo 3*:

Halo 3:

1.8m First Day

3.8m First Week (5 days)

4.597m in 12 days

Grand Theft Auto IV:

Ukn First Day

3.4m First Week (5 days)

4.265m in 12 days

Looking at Day-0 Gears data, it's in between GTAIV and Halo 3 in the best case scenario, and at worst, at 80% of Halo 3 for launch sales (or 1.45m on day-0).

The other aspects to take into consideration is/are Week 3 data. Assuming sales keep going down, both GTAIV and H3 saw 50% drops from Week-2 to Week-3. To me, that means that sales may not be that insanely hot (by comparison) after the 2nd weekend. If that's the case, then I don't think that the extra 3 days of sales would help a whole bunch (on average, both GTAIV and H3 sold 50,000-70,000 units per day on week 3. Which would put the 3 day advantage of a 2 week cycle between 150,000-210,000 units lower than either comparison, which I think is likely since the missing days are weekdays, and not weekend days).

*Of course* this assume that the extra days are closer to week-3 numbers, and not week 2 numbers. Week 2 numbers for H3 and GTAIV are around 110,000-130,000 per day, which would drop the low end of the scenarios by an extra 180,000-240,000 units. But for these scenarios, I'll just use week-3 data.

So putting that forth, we should look at these plausible scenarios:

• Worst Case: Gears 2 sells exactly like Halo 3, ~81% of Halo 3 on it's first 2 weeks, minus 150,000-210,000 units for 3-day discrepancy.
• Total After 2 weeks: 3,413,000-3,473,000
• Best Case: Gears 2 sells somewhere in between GTAIV and Halo 3 in a similar timeframe, minus 150,000-210,000 units for the 3-day discrepancy.
• Total After 2 weeks: 4,221,000-4,281,000

So the middle of the road scenario would be between 3,817,000 and 3,877,000 units in 9 days assuming similar trending for week 3 data. If you used week 2 averages (which I think are just too high, given the fact they're weekdays), your looking at a bare minimum of 3.2m in 2 weeks, and still having a best-case scenario over 4.0m (with the median being between 3.6 and 3.7m)

Well releasing near a weekend, in theory would help.  I know a common problem of most who buy these games is simply trying to find the transportation and or time from work get the title on a weekday.  So they'd instead wait for the weekend.  Of course I wouldn't suspect this to be a vast majority but it could potentially make its day 2 sales a little larger than per se a game that released on a Tuesday and day 2 was on a Wednesday.  So if it was about 1.45 million then instead of the usual half we could say about another million in day 2 which would suggest about 2.5 million in its first 2 days.  Thus in the next week we'd see the usual decreases in sales which would put it's second week to about 700k to 1 million.  Which fits right about where you have your Worst case.  I'd probably call that my moderate case and the worst case to be in about 2.8-3.2 million.

As for my best cae it's what I explained earlier so more like a 1.7 million opener and 1.1 million second day for 2.8 million first week.  And then of course around 1.2 million in the 2nd week for a total of 4 million.  I'd give it a tolerance of 200k.  \

It's good to be able to discuss these kinds of sales with someone who knows what they are talking about... no more explaining processes before I make such predictions haha.  But I think we are personally on the same page it's just we have a different idea of a median.  While mine is more around 3.4 million yours is more around 3.8 million for the first 2 weeks.  Either way it's an outstanding 9 day opener on any accounts and I think it just further proves my assumption that the growth in the market is allowing this to happen for such games in the holiday season.

I'd also like to point out that only 2 games this generation have been able to have a 2nd week of sales over a million. Those titles are Super Smash Bros Brawl and Mario Wii which opened respectively to 2.8 and 2.4 million. Now those are obviously odd cases as it's hard to think that they dropped that little but it shows you just how hard it is to have a second week of a million or more.

Now as the generation before there is GTA: SA on the PS2 and I'm srue there's more but we have incomplete data for it. Point being for a heavy front loaded title to do another million in a week is difficult to say the least. And it's even harder for the 2 titles this gen that had done it because they released earlier in the week. That gives Gears a better chance of course but no Halo has done it nor GTA IV version.

We've both spoken pretty solidly of a one million second week but that's getting harder to imagine right now. But it does have going with it that it only has 2 days in the first week which helps.

I don't disagree that it's near-impossible to score a 1m-ish second week....Because it is. Especially if your NOT the market leader like Nintendo is.

However, the whole advantage comes into play of Gears being released near the weekend, which should positively effect sales:

Rather than a game being bought by the insano hardcore on launch day, then dry up more sales through the week, and finally ending with the rest of the early-purchasers on the weekend, your building a recipe for a massive 2 day week (probably better than any one we've seen before), and giving the 2nd week a better chance at doing well.

I haven't looked at the correlation in movies to see if there's a major switch in terms of sales of a Wednesday opener versus a Friday opener, but I'm willing to bet that the Friday opener sees larger second-weekday sales (ala The Dark Knight) than a Wednsday opener (Harry Potter atOotP)

especially during holidays which sends more people to go shopping. Summer is the advantage to movies making the most money, holidays can be applied to both games and movies. I don't really think releasing it on the weekend matters, unless its the school kids that are begging their parents to get the game... than spend Tuesday-Friday on school days whining about wanting it, maybe parents should be thankful for that? haha... wait.... are kids even allowed to play Gears?!!?

 Well, there are quite a few more 360s out in 2008 then in 2006.

Any updated numbers already mrstickball?

Holy crap. My sig is a bit off then. LOL. This maybe the Halo killer?

I expect about the same as fable 2 in NA, then after 5 minutes of play it will melt your 360.