I don't disagree that it's near-impossible to score a 1m-ish second week....Because it is. Especially if your NOT the market leader like Nintendo is.
However, the whole advantage comes into play of Gears being released near the weekend, which should positively effect sales:
Rather than a game being bought by the insano hardcore on launch day, then dry up more sales through the week, and finally ending with the rest of the early-purchasers on the weekend, your building a recipe for a massive 2 day week (probably better than any one we've seen before), and giving the 2nd week a better chance at doing well.
I haven't looked at the correlation in movies to see if there's a major switch in terms of sales of a Wednesday opener versus a Friday opener, but I'm willing to bet that the Friday opener sees larger second-weekday sales (ala The Dark Knight) than a Wednsday opener (Harry Potter atOotP)
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
