kamil said:
mrstickball said:
Few notes:
1) I'm not trying to argue a 3.0m 2-day week. I'm merely saying in relative terms, it'd hit 3.0m+ easy in a "standard" 5-day week.
2) My official projection is 4.0m for the first 2 weeks (which would teeter on 9 days), which is a more reliable projection than trying to figure out what it'll do in 2 days.
The argument is that right now, Gears 2 is tracking in between GTAIV (3.3m first week) and Halo 3 (3.8m first week) using Day-0 data. So I think that had this of been launched on a Tuesday, we'd be seeing 3.4-3.6m first week sales. Obviously, with 3 less days it'll be lower. However, the comparison is valid, and even with missing 3 days, after 2 weeks, it will have come much closer to a GTAIV/H3 comparison, and should be at the 4m mark or a little bit more since both games were above 4.2-3 million after 12 days of data. |
If I'm reading your first post correctly Gears 2 isn't between GTAIV (3.3 mln) and Halo 3 (3.8 mln) but between GTAIV first week (3.3 mln) and Halo 3 first week only in America (2.8 mln).
I actually think that Halo 3 is a better comparision becouse of more similar demographics with Gears 2 (I think that not as many GTAIV owners went online on first day as Gears or Halo owners).
So I personally expect Gears sales to be below Halo 3 first week in America, should be over 2 mln with normal week but becouse ithave only 2 days this week it may even be below.
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It depends on how you look at it:
Gears 2, in terms of what VGC will report, will certainly be well below Halo 3 (which sold 3.8m first week) due to having 2 days of sales versus Halo 3 or Grand Theft Auto IV, which both had 5.
However, the argument I'm attempting to make is that since it has a 2-day tracking period, week 2, 3 and 4 sales are going to be decently higher than either GTAIV or Halo 3.
I'll be posting an article shortly on VGC since ioi now has retailer Day-1 numbers.
