Looking at the numbers, comparing Fable 2, Halo 3, and GTAIV, Gears 2 is shaping up to be an absolute monster.

Midnight sales look VERY robust - almost as much as Fable 2's entire first week. I'll be updating it as time goes on, but at any rate, it looks like the game is headed for major sales.

Now, here's the comparison of said games on 360Voice.com, since they track Day-0 sales pretty effectively (also what I used to track Fable 2's sales, and nailed in within a few percent):

Day-0 Sales/Users:

• Halo 3: 11,703 Users (launched 1-day later in Europe)
  
• Gears of War 2: 9,505 Users (Simultaneous US/PAL launch)
  
• GTAIV: 8,282 Users (Simultaneous US/PAL launch)
  
• Call of Duty 4: 2,329 Users (launched 4-days later in Europe)
  
• Fable 2: 2,226 Users (launched 3-days later in Europe)

So because of this, it's very likely that Gears 2 will be nestled somewhere around GTAIV (3.3m) and Halo 3 (3.8m)'s launches. Of course, GTAIV and Halo 3 launched very early in the week vs. Gears which launched later in the week. This may skew numbers down slightly, but the comparison is very valid: Gears 3 should sell between 3.0m and 3.5m first week, and around 4.0m after 2 weeks. Very good.

I expect 2.5 million first week

I expected 2.5m first week as well, but it seems that 4.0m or so for the first 2 weeks will be rather solid.

2-2.5 is my prediction

2.3 First week.

3 to 3.5 doesn't suprise me a bit. The line we had was as big as GTA IV and considering this is on one console unlike the former yea not too surprising.

3.0 - 3.5m and 4m for 2 weeks.

so your saying it will drop down to 500k - 1m for week 2??

lol and in the VGC roundtable they said 1m first month for GOW2 lol

Townzy - Not so much that, but it's a projection of where it'll end up after 2 weeks.

The disadvantage (and it's a major one, in the USA) is that it only has 2-3 days on the market to garner sales, versus a typical period of 5-6 days. This could hurt the opening week numbers for Gears 2 in North America...Europe, not so much, I don't think (Fable 2 had a decent launch within the same number of days).

Of course, it may not matter in the US. 4.0m is a VERY safe bet for the first 2 weeks. But 3.0m would be the projection of it *if* the 3-day sales period hurts Gears 2.

What we're looking at is a 3.0m opening week, following by a 1.0m second week - give or take, but it should be over 4.0m (GTAIV was at 4.3m and Halo 3 at 4.5m in 2 weeks). Now, if it had good legs, it could hit somewhere closer to that GTAIV number at 4.3m.

So:

2.5m O/W and 1.5m Second Week (very low O/W numbers), or a more likely scenario of 3.0m O/W and 1.0m Second week. It could go even higher - but I won't make a projection for that.

Had Gears 2 of launched on Tuesday, a 3.3-3.5 million opening week would of been very likely, as that's what it's tracking to.

JAMS for 360...

Just Another Million Seller for 360!

ohk then. will be interesting to see hardware altough i dont think it will boost it that much.

GOW 2 could outsell GOW in a matter of 4 weeks. amazing. could it beat halo 3 with a bit stronger legs? possibly. but probably not as halo 3 will get a double boost next year with "wars" and "recon".

the 360 is really selling some software this will be the 5th game to reach 5m plus and fable 2 could almost reach that although 4m seems more likely. and the only games to sell more than ~3m on xbox was a halo game add in Assasins Creed and Forza 2 and thats 8 games that sold better than the non halo games on xbox add in probably 2 or 3 more this holiday....