Townzy - Not so much that, but it's a projection of where it'll end up after 2 weeks.
The disadvantage (and it's a major one, in the USA) is that it only has 2-3 days on the market to garner sales, versus a typical period of 5-6 days. This could hurt the opening week numbers for Gears 2 in North America...Europe, not so much, I don't think (Fable 2 had a decent launch within the same number of days).
Of course, it may not matter in the US. 4.0m is a VERY safe bet for the first 2 weeks. But 3.0m would be the projection of it *if* the 3-day sales period hurts Gears 2.
What we're looking at is a 3.0m opening week, following by a 1.0m second week - give or take, but it should be over 4.0m (GTAIV was at 4.3m and Halo 3 at 4.5m in 2 weeks). Now, if it had good legs, it could hit somewhere closer to that GTAIV number at 4.3m.
So:
2.5m O/W and 1.5m Second Week (very low O/W numbers), or a more likely scenario of 3.0m O/W and 1.0m Second week. It could go even higher - but I won't make a projection for that.
Had Gears 2 of launched on Tuesday, a 3.3-3.5 million opening week would of been very likely, as that's what it's tracking to.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
