This is not a flame thread.  This is not a trolling thread.  It is a serious consideration.  Well, only as serious as console numbers get.

A lot of speculation has been raised as to what each console maker needs to do to either attain or maintain the lead this generation.  Talk ranges from system exclusivity to High Definition capabilities.  "If MGS4 comes to the 360 then the PS3 dies"/"Once Final Fantasy comes out the 360 and Wii will be blown out of the water."  We hear these points mentioned on a daily basis and, while there is credence in them theoretically, it is also wishful thinking and speculation.  The question I wish to raise is a bit different.

 Again, this is not flamebait or an attack thread.  It is strictly numbers.

Right now the Wii is on fire (for better or worse). 

• Its poised to pass the 360 in a couple weeks to become worldwide market leader
• Its sales haven't slowed since launch
• Conservative estimates say the Wii will be sold out at least until March 08
• There are no games out for the Wii (at least this is what most say)
• The Wii curve seems to match the DS curve
• The PS3 and 360 appear to be fighting for the same two spots held by Nintendo and Microsoft last generation
• Developer assets have been moved over strongly to the Wii side (This kind of asset moving takes years)

What all of this points to is momentum.  Nintendo has it like it is going of style.  My question is, what can stop it?  What catacalysmic event could cause Nintendo to lose this console round?  It isn't a question of what the others can do to win...it is what can Nintendo do to lose?

Honestly, I don't think there's much Nintendo could do to lose....but there's a lot the PS3 or 360 could do to gain ground...

I could see the PS3 at least getting close to Wii sales around 2009 if its public image changes, its price drops, and some killer apps like MGS4, FF, whatever help convince consumers to buy it. Basically the same goes for 360, though I'd say the PS3 has a better chance at winning in the future.

Time, PS3 capability and its games over shadows the wii. I don't think 360 has a chance of beating the Wii world wide.

Nintendo totally abandons gamers for the casual crowd, Sony did sell +100 million with games games and more games. Nintendo should NOT let Ms or Sony rule the hardcore/core market they need to fight for it and fight hard.

Sony can smash MS in the battle for hardcore/core. Nintendo needs to fight for that market, if they let there be one clear winner. Who do you think that winner will go after next.

Sony is still their big threat, Nintendo should not underestimate them.

Everyone underestimates sony to start with. If that 40gb is true I see them selling 8 million units by years end. It would really be a good strategy. The wii is selling well becuase of its awsome games that are extreemly fun and ofcourse its price. Ounce sony brings out those games, the 40gig ps3 for $399, and the new rumble controller. Expect things to change rapidly and we could see the ps3 closing in on the 360 by Q1 08.

Honestly, the processing power and high definition output are largely meaningless when it comes to sales; for years people have choosen less powerful systems that were rarely able to output at the average resolution (let alone the best resolution available).

Nintendo is the only company that can cause the Wii to lose at this point in time ... As far as I can see about the only thing they could do to screw up would be to release an updated Wii system in 2009 that focused on Next Generation graphics and High Definition output

To lose, an earthquake would have to swallow Nintendo HQ burying Miyamoto and Iwata under millions of tons of rubble.

Really, they've already made enough profit to be a success. Everything from now on is cherry on top, and it's going to be one of the biggest cherries in the history of the business. 

Looking at it from a strictly financial view: Even if Nintendo "loses" this generation - even if the Wii suddenly stops selling completely from now, Nintendo have most likely recouped their R&D and made money in this short time.

In other words, Nintendo cannot lose because they have already "won" back their initial investment. That alone speaks volumes especially when you pit Nintendo's financials against Sony's and Microsoft's.

And no, I don't know how much Nintendo have invested in R&D for the Wii, but it's safe to say they didn't spend nearly as much on R&D (compared to Sony and Microsoft on their respective consoles) as much as they did on marketing and strategy. I mean, how hard is it to add "low-cost waggle" to "outdated technology that amounts to nothing more than two gamecubes duct-taped together"? 

It is amazing how this generation has unfolded in such a short time. A year and a half ago I think most people were looking at a Sony/Microsoft battle and wondering who was going to get the Nintendo spoils when they went third party a la Sega. To be having this conversation at all is remarkable.

The comments about Sony coming out with big hitters in 2008 is valid, but I believe that if we consider last generation the same thing could have been said about another down and out competitor. So many thought that Nintendo could compete (not win) last generation, if they released some amazing titles. "Just wait until Mario comes out. Metroid will own. Smash Bros is teh amazin!"
But regardless of Nintendo's great first party titles and even some third party success (Resident Evil) Nintendo failed to make a dent on Sony's stranglehold.

I don't believe this had to do with games. Can anyone deny the quality titles that were on the other two (three...DC anyone) systems. The XBOX and Gamecube were great systems (with advanced hardware) but couldn't shake Sony from its throne. Granted, Sony was out for a full year, but I don't think it was this that made them win. It was public opinion and excitement about the next generation of gaming. That now lies in Nintendo's hands this time around.