This is not a flame thread. This is not a trolling thread. It is a serious consideration. Well, only as serious as console numbers get.
A lot of speculation has been raised as to what each console maker needs to do to either attain or maintain the lead this generation. Talk ranges from system exclusivity to High Definition capabilities. "If MGS4 comes to the 360 then the PS3 dies"/"Once Final Fantasy comes out the 360 and Wii will be blown out of the water." We hear these points mentioned on a daily basis and, while there is credence in them theoretically, it is also wishful thinking and speculation. The question I wish to raise is a bit different.
Again, this is not flamebait or an attack thread. It is strictly numbers.
Right now the Wii is on fire (for better or worse).
- Its poised to pass the 360 in a couple weeks to become worldwide market leader
- Its sales haven't slowed since launch
- Conservative estimates say the Wii will be sold out at least until March 08
- There are no games out for the Wii (at least this is what most say)
- The Wii curve seems to match the DS curve
- The PS3 and 360 appear to be fighting for the same two spots held by Nintendo and Microsoft last generation
- Developer assets have been moved over strongly to the Wii side (This kind of asset moving takes years)
What all of this points to is momentum. Nintendo has it like it is going of style. My question is, what can stop it? What catacalysmic event could cause Nintendo to lose this console round? It isn't a question of what the others can do to win...it is what can Nintendo do to lose?
