Keep in mind that in the past the magic number was $100, but as the economy grows, and people make more money, they can afford to pay 3-400 for a console.  Of course the higher end won't sell near as many, but I can realistically see the PS3 dropping down below $300 before the end of 2009.   The one thing about having a machine packed with expensive state of the art electronics, is that the price drops rapidly as the cost to manufacture decreases quickly. 

i cant see the PS3 topping 100 million in 20 years, let alone 10, the PS2 has sold incredibly well as a £/$100-150 machine, and even then it had 10x the momentum that the PS3 has from day one.

A hell of alot of people picked up the PS2 for a cheap thrill, to play singstar, guitar hero or buzz and little else, they wernt too bothered that the hardware wasnt cuttting edge or that the xbox was better hardware, that sort of thing isnt going to happen again for a number of reasons, 1 being the time when sony can offer the PS3 at anything under £/$200 is a long long way off and 2, because the Wii is already taking that market away from them. aswell as creating its own market to boot.
I have no doubts the PS3 will catch and overtake the 360, but that will take maybe 1-2 years (or 2 more holiday seasons), by this point the wii will be far too far infront.
Even if the 'big 3' dont convince the 'hardcore' that the wii is a viable platform, theres more than enough non 'hardcore' to keep them in front. I think anyone who classes themselves as a hardcore gamer (and by that i dont mean someone who only plays eyecandy FPS games) will be more than happy to own a wii for group play and the occasional miyamoto classic.



@ Smashchu, Halo 2 did sell very well, but nothing on the system comes anywhere near that, one game alone doesnt make a machine successful. The PS2 has many many games that sold in the millions, most of which will come to the PS3.
Halo3 will push machines, but i doubt its going to have a massive impact, any FPS fan has more than enough reasons to own a 360 already and the majority of them will already bought one (and sent it back for repair multiple times).

thats my non analyst opinion anyway.

The economy has always been growing, but the consoles ALWAYS sell the better when thay are at the $100-150 pricepoint, be it the snes or the ps1, common people will never spend more than $200 on a console, because they dont need to.  Also, its clear that the wii wont sell this good forever, but it wont stop selling just because you say so.

So my prediction:

Wii: 80-110 million

PS3: 40-50 million

360: 30-40 million 

Wii: 70-120 million
PS3: 60-90 million
360: 30-50 million

If you assume that the average person gets a 10% raise every year it would be 15 years before a $400 console would be in the same proportionate price range as a $100 console is today. Few people ever recieve 10% raises and the average raise would be between 2% and 3% which would justify a price increase like that sometime between 48 and 72 years.

Overall, the ecconomy is in pretty good shape with some large warts and I can see people willing to pay more for a console today than they were willing to 5 years ago; I think you would find that their limit is still about $50 more than they were willing to pay in the last generation though.

 Yahh with more PS2 ports, nothing to brag about.

Katamari is a PS2 port?

I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, but I can't help it.

Not going to arse around with ranges, straight out predictions.

Wii: 110M Dominant console of the generation, taking into account a growth in console numbers over the generation.

X360: 40M Much better showing than the first, may end up breaking even

PS3: 45M Strong brand name, will fall short of this if price doesnt drop low enough fast enough

Overall: 195M generation, greater competition, increase in general population and larger acceptance of games and gamers by the casual.

Yeah, I'm a bit of a Wii fan and I wont deny it, however that is seriously what I would predict for the generation.

I'm going to go against the grain and suggest that the X360 beats out the PS3. Since its launch the PS3 has actually fallen further behind the Xbox360 and I don't believe any single game will be able to turn the tide (with the exception of Grand Theft Auto, which is now multiplatform). What will sell these consoles is large numbers of good games, and the 360 has the benefit here. PS3's only hope was Japan but that's going downhill fast.

Wii: 130mil
X360: 40mil
PS3: 25mil

Allow me to start with some historical data (from VGChartz, natch) to give us perspective:

LIFETIME SALES TO DATE:

NES: 62 million

Genesis: 31 million

SNES: 49 million
Other: 8 million

Saturn: 9 million
PS1: 102 million
N64: 33 million
Total console market, two gens ago: 144 million

Dreamcast: 9 million
PS2: 118 million
Gamecube: 22 million
Xbox: 25 million
Total console market, last gen: 174 million

Predicted future market: 200 to 230 million

Wii: 100 to 130 million
360: 35 to 65 million (see PS3)
PS3: 35 to 65 million (see 360)

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

One serious mistake I see many people making is presuming that this industry has had enough generations to be able to predict a trend like "one console wins and the other two get stomped". The simple fact is this: We have never seen a generation of consoles begin the same as any other generation.

The Genesis launched years before the SNES, and more as a competitor to the NES than anything else. So these two generations are inseperably intertwined.

In the home console generation (H.C.G. hereafter) of the mid-90s, two consoles launched together. One was utterly crushed by the other. A third launched later and achieved 25% market share.

In the turn-of-the-century H.C.G., one console launched essentially unopposed. Two competitors later launched together, selling about the same worldwide (different regionally) and achieving roughly equal total market share of only 15% each.

In the latest H.C.G., one console launched entirely unopposed. Two competitors later launched together, one of which quickly overtook the first, the other of which has had a rate of sale roughly similar to the first.

Frankly, none of these H.C.G.s can be used to predict any other based on similarity. They are simply not alike.