By the end of this gen, how many pieces of hardware do you think Wii, PS3, 36

[Final-Fan]

Allow me to start with some historical data (from VGChartz, natch) to give us perspective:

LIFETIME SALES TO DATE:

NES: 62 million

Genesis: 31 million

SNES: 49 million
Other: 8 million

Saturn: 9 million
PS1: 102 million
N64: 33 million
Total console market, two gens ago: 144 million

Dreamcast: 9 million
PS2: 118 million
Gamecube: 22 million
Xbox: 25 million
Total console market, last gen: 174 million

Predicted future market: 200 to 230 million

Wii: 100 to 130 million
360: 35 to 65 million (see PS3)
PS3: 35 to 65 million (see 360)

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One serious mistake I see many people making is presuming that this industry has had enough generations to be able to predict a trend like "one console wins and the other two get stomped". The simple fact is this: We have never seen a generation of consoles begin the same as any other generation.

The Genesis launched years before the SNES, and more as a competitor to the NES than anything else. So these two generations are inseperably intertwined.

In the home console generation (H.C.G. hereafter) of the mid-90s, two consoles launched together. One was utterly crushed by the other. A third launched later and achieved 25% market share.

In the turn-of-the-century H.C.G., one console launched essentially unopposed. Two competitors later launched together, selling about the same worldwide (different regionally) and achieving roughly equal total market share of only 15% each.

In the latest H.C.G., one console launched entirely unopposed. Two competitors later launched together, one of which quickly overtook the first, the other of which has had a rate of sale roughly similar to the first.

Frankly, none of these H.C.G.s can be used to predict any other based on similarity. They are simply not alike.