@nine0nine,

I think you are a bit behind on the most recent info.  Nintendo's Q1 reports all but confirm stockpiling. And there is no reason to suspect at the moment that on Jan '08 the Wii will have stopped selling out so it may be just as unclear what the real Wii demand is then as it is now. But I definately agree it is going to be an interesting holiday and I think it is wide open still, there is a chance for huge success and failure for all three this holiday.

 @ThBigFatJ,

You actually missed a few, but for clarity I will just go over the list from scratch...

Reasons 100 million PS2 owners are not waiting to buy a PS3....

• Rebuys for Failed Lasers
• Rebuys for Overheating
• Rebuys for Slim SKUs
• People who purchased because of how easy it was to pirate games on the system..
• Significant portions of PS2 owners were late adopters (aka waited for several price cuts).
• Some got it because it was a DVD player that shut thier kids up (DVD adoption was much better than BR & HDDVD combined is now)
• It never cost more than $300 from US retail.

Wii 50,000,000
Xbox 360 25,000,000
PS3 25,000,000

I know it sound that that is nothing but I don't thnk that the Wii will last more than 4 years, nintendo will try to come out with another low priced console in 3 or 4 years, and do that every 3 years after that, Xbox and PS3 will last 5 or 6 years and that is it.

How many of you are professionally trained and experienced analysts? What? **hears crickets** Hmmm makes sense with all the nonsense spouted off in this thread.

Yes, the Wii is doing well right now, but it's no guarantee that it will continue. Also, many people do want more impressive graphics and great games that take advantage of it. Maybe not for 5-600 dollars, but at some point they'll make the jump and decide it's time to buy a PS3 (Most likely when the price gets down to the 2-300 range). Keep in mind that gamers are getting older and are making more money and can afford to buy a system in that range. Also, how long until the Wii gets replaced by Nintendo's next iteration of the Wii to compete graphically with the PS3/360? Could that be 2009? or 2010? By that time the PS3 will be much easier to develop on and the games that could be created could be something that the Wii as it is just cannot handle with it's hardware and encourage those who may even ahve a Wii to decide that it's time to buy a PS3 so they can enjoy those games.

Wii still has a stigma attached to it that many hardcore gamers may not enjoy, and that would be Nintendo's history of focusing on kids (Soon to be casuals in the mix). I know those who have the wii and they get burned out playing the games they have and the wiimote as well. A couple end up playing the wii a bit for a few weeks to a month, then they switch back to their ps2 for a couple months.

What does my non-analyst based prediction say?

Wii 60-80million
Xbox360 35-45 million
PS3 75-110million (Could be more if the system really does have a 10 year window before the next sony product is out. Also, sales will pick up considerably in winter of 2008, with a big pickup before that in holiday season 2007 if there is truth behind the $400 PS3 for this year.)

Ok first of all, where did you see anyone claiming to be a "professionally trained and experienced analyst"... **hears crickets** Hmm thought so...(sorry I had to)  People are doing exactly what you did, the only difference is you explicitly stated what everyone else was able to implicitly understand about this thread and many others like it.

 I like how your second paragraph dismisses the Wii entirely by simply stating that while it is doing well right now there is "no guarantee that it will continue". Now if I am to keep in mind that most gamers are getting old I would realize that this usually entails getting married and I can tell you most women are not going to be "ok" with a $500+ PS3 purchase.  The Wii is a much easier sell to these older gamers as they have learned the value of a dollar and probably have kids that tought them this lesson.  So in both cases they aren't thrilled with the price tag and the Wii entertains them...and their kids. Where as their wife probably isn't letting the kids play Resistance or KillZone2/MGS4 when they eventually come out. So I think you are dead wrong on this market for several reasons.

As for when Nintendo will release their next console, I seriously doubt they are going to cut the Wii's lifespan short by releasing anything in '09 or '10. The wii is currently showing signs that it will be profitable for them for a long time to come, and I seriously doubt they will release a new console until they feel they would be able to make more money with a new unit.I wouldn't expect a new console release until at least late '11 and even then probably not until '12 or '13.  

As for the stigma, even if we are to assume this is true it only further proves my point about the Wii being able to sell to the older gamer households since they have kids now.  At the bare minimum I think you have to recognize that the Wii is positioned as both a primary console purchase and a secondary console purchase.  What I mean is, because the Wii is so different you are probably interested just in it or at the bare minimum you are interested in getting it as a second console.

I won't knock your predictions because they are your predictions to make, but I will say you are a brave man to put the PS3 at a high of 110 million (especially when you say it could be higher). I would personally consider it a victory for them if they manage to do half of that... 

 Good numbers.

Halo alone trumps all three of those games. Halo 2 shipped over 8 million copies. Killzone shipped 2 AT BEST(probobly alone the lines of 1). Metal Gear Solid 3 shipped 3.96. Final Fantasy 12 shipped 4.94, which is still a far cry from 8million Andd that it soldd the most in Japan(where the PS3 doesn't preform so well). Also, let's not forget that this was on a console with a 100million person userbase, and these games sell best to people who already own the console. Expect a high attach rate, but nothing else. Halo 3 is more likely to push more consoles then all three of those games combined

Also, NONE of them are coming for 2007(Killzone 2 maybe, I'm not sure). This is the most importaint holiday season and Sony has nothing, while Microsoft and Nintendo have their big guns ready. This will only add to more problems Sony has.  This will in turn cause more developers and consumers to look towards Wii and the 360.

looking back on the other console races, the begining of the life cycle is the most importaint. If the console sells well, then it will continue to sell well. If not, then it will sell poorly. Sony launched to late, and came too expensive. They did what Microsoft shouldn't have done, and blew it up.  Thier console is just like the Cube. it focuses on Sony fans and on one else.

And, yes, the PS3 does have GTA4, but since the game does the best in the US(where Microsoft is dominate right now) it won't sell as well as it does on the 360, or push as many units.

Yes and one Ps2 GranTurismo game shipped more then Both Halos combined.

Worst selling Gran Turismo out sold the best selling Halo by millions. Halo is GTs biatch.

GT sold nearly 26 million units last gen, halo nearly 15.

Yup I feel the same way...Its gonna be a close battle but who cares if your in last place as long as the company made profit and didnt withdrawl the console from the market the console is in good hopes and like I said even as possible thats my prediction...^_^

Halo doesnt trump any of those games if GT is with them this one racing game is the best ever and aims at evreyone very well and it always easily sells more than 10million WW thats more than any Halo.

People predicting that the Wii won't continue its performance seem to be ignoring the fact that Nintendo is in the best position to make a price cut. They can afford to cut the price at any time and when demand falls below supply they can just announce a price cut and they'll be selling out again.

Sony's in much worse shape with no sign of improving. In order to sell anywhere near what the PS2 sold they'll have to get the PS3 under $200, but they're losing money on it at $500. Regardless of what games they release for it, they aren't going to move many units at the current price. Some of you may be surprised to hear this, but $500 is more than some people spend all year on entertainment. Some of these people owned PS2s (once the price got low enough), but you can be sure they won't own PS3s.