| jjseth said: How many of you are professionally trained and experienced analysts? What? **hears crickets** Hmmm makes sense with all the nonsense spouted off in this thread. Yes, the Wii is doing well right now, but it's no guarantee that it will continue. Also, many people do want more impressive graphics and great games that take advantage of it. Maybe not for 5-600 dollars, but at some point they'll make the jump and decide it's time to buy a PS3 (Most likely when the price gets down to the 2-300 range). Keep in mind that gamers are getting older and are making more money and can afford to buy a system in that range. Also, how long until the Wii gets replaced by Nintendo's next iteration of the Wii to compete graphically with the PS3/360? Could that be 2009? or 2010? By that time the PS3 will be much easier to develop on and the games that could be created could be something that the Wii as it is just cannot handle with it's hardware and encourage those who may even ahve a Wii to decide that it's time to buy a PS3 so they can enjoy those games. Wii still has a stigma attached to it that many hardcore gamers may not enjoy, and that would be Nintendo's history of focusing on kids (Soon to be casuals in the mix). I know those who have the wii and they get burned out playing the games they have and the wiimote as well. A couple end up playing the wii a bit for a few weeks to a month, then they switch back to their ps2 for a couple months. What does my non-analyst based prediction say? Wii 60-80million Xbox360 35-45 million PS3 75-110million (Could be more if the system really does have a 10 year window before the next sony product is out. Also, sales will pick up considerably in winter of 2008, with a big pickup before that in holiday season 2007 if there is truth behind the $400 PS3 for this year.) |
Ok first of all, where did you see anyone claiming to be a "professionally trained and experienced analyst"... **hears crickets** Hmm thought so...(sorry I had to) People are doing exactly what you did, the only difference is you explicitly stated what everyone else was able to implicitly understand about this thread and many others like it.
I like how your second paragraph dismisses the Wii entirely by simply stating that while it is doing well right now there is "no guarantee that it will continue". Now if I am to keep in mind that most gamers are getting old I would realize that this usually entails getting married and I can tell you most women are not going to be "ok" with a $500+ PS3 purchase. The Wii is a much easier sell to these older gamers as they have learned the value of a dollar and probably have kids that tought them this lesson. So in both cases they aren't thrilled with the price tag and the Wii entertains them...and their kids. Where as their wife probably isn't letting the kids play Resistance or KillZone2/MGS4 when they eventually come out. So I think you are dead wrong on this market for several reasons.
As for when Nintendo will release their next console, I seriously doubt they are going to cut the Wii's lifespan short by releasing anything in '09 or '10. The wii is currently showing signs that it will be profitable for them for a long time to come, and I seriously doubt they will release a new console until they feel they would be able to make more money with a new unit.I wouldn't expect a new console release until at least late '11 and even then probably not until '12 or '13.
As for the stigma, even if we are to assume this is true it only further proves my point about the Wii being able to sell to the older gamer households since they have kids now. At the bare minimum I think you have to recognize that the Wii is positioned as both a primary console purchase and a secondary console purchase. What I mean is, because the Wii is so different you are probably interested just in it or at the bare minimum you are interested in getting it as a second console.
I won't knock your predictions because they are your predictions to make, but I will say you are a brave man to put the PS3 at a high of 110 million (especially when you say it could be higher). I would personally consider it a victory for them if they manage to do half of that...
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
