I think that the 360 is in danger of falling to 2nd place once nintendo surpasses it, and will at some later point fall to third place once the PS3 passes it.

Well, you have to realize that the 360 is only going to have a good 6 years to do its thing, and after that it is going to cease to be a competitive player.

If it already has had 2 years where it has sold 10million, the best that it could do in the next 4 is another 20 million, however I will try to be conservative here and give it 17.5million.

The 360 just isn't going to be doing good for the short term b/c their games division is pretty cash-poor at this point, and hasn't had the money to woo developers to give it good games lately. Almost every game announced by the 360 or PS3 platforms has gone to the PS3, a big change from 4-5 months ago. Of course this will probably amend itself by early 2008 when microsoft will have had the time to fix its reliability issues for the 360 and won't have to waste all of that $$$$ on refurbishing 360s but by then, Sony and nintendo will have gotten stronger.

dallas said: I think that the 360 is in danger of falling to 2nd place once nintendo surpasses it, and will at some later point fall to third place once the PS3 passes it. Well, you have to realize that the 360 is only going to have a good 6 years to do its thing, and after that it is going to cease to be a competitive player. If it already has had 2 years where it has sold 10million, the best that it could do in the next 4 is another 20 million, however I will try to be conservative here and give it 17.5million. The 360 just isn't going to be doing good for the short term b/c their games division is pretty cash-poor at this point, and hasn't had the money to woo developers to give it good games lately. Almost every game announced by the 360 or PS3 platforms has gone to the PS3, a big change from 4-5 months ago. Of course this will probably amend itself by early 2008 when microsoft will have had the time to fix its reliability issues for the 360 and won't have to waste all of that $$$$ on refurbishing 360s but by then, Sony and nintendo will have gotten stronger.

Why exactly would the Xbox 360 cease to be competitive after 6 years? Because it has no built-in HD disc reader?

 

Providing the PS3 could sustain some 40K units per week in NA ,30K in Europe and 25 K in Japan ,all very reasonable once the software starts flowing regularly ,then it can make some 35K weekly more than the 360 Worlwide .Thats some 140K monthly .To reduce the 6 million advantage of the 360 it would need some 42 monts ,some 3 years and a half ,3 years with the current numbers if it doesnt drop a single bit next weeks .But that would be without having in count the christmas period when the PS3 will push some serious numbers in Japan and Europe and the X360 ....simply not .And Sony has yet to cut its price here in Europe and in Japan .Microsoft could also cut its price but that wouldnt signify too much .It may be fair or unfair but the fact is that people here are waiting for the PS3 to drop its price ,they dont care or even know the 360 .Cube and Xbox were cheaper than the PS2 here and it didnt do any difference but for the initial moments of the price cut (1 month ) .The Playstation brand is very strong and people have been happy with it so it is normal that they stick to it .Besides ,the way MS killed the Xbox ,the red ring of light and the fact that the machine is done by MS doesnt help it a single bit .

I dont think the 360 is doomed or anything like it ,MS can bleed money like nobody else ,and just the same as the PS3 even if it failed at the third post its userbase would still be enough to warranty the spending of 2 million for the companies to do ports of their games for the machine .SO 360 fans can breath and be calm because their machine isnt going anywhere .

At the same time it is clear it wont dominate the generation .The Wii will catch its worlwide sales in less than a month and both the PS3 and the Wii are outselling it in Japan and Europe .Even at 500 dollars and without its heavy hitters the PS3 is showing to be able to beat it in its own home .The 360 is just slightly overselling the Xbox 1 in North America ,and it is doing somewhat better in Japan but always in minuscule numbers ....the shadow of this is that they are selling worse in Europe than the original Xbox .Worlwide I would say they are doing a bit worse even .Halo 3 can make a splash but it remains to be seen how much hardware it can shift .Most of the FPS lovers who could be waiting for this most probably already have the machine .Besides I think it will be a dissapointment ....no doubt it will be a great game but the competition in that area wiil be truly outstanding and I dont think it will even be the better shotter out there this year .Things like Haze ,Quake Wars ,Unreal 3 or Killzone 2 already look better than Halo 3 .Even Legendary:The Box seems to be more advanced technically .And it has been hyped too much for its own good ....even being great it will be looked as a bit "meh " .

SO ,I dont think 360 owner have to worry as their machine isnt going to dissappear but I think it will finish third this time worldwide .SOny is just beggining to flex some of its comercial muscle and it is showing improvements in its sales in the 3 areas .Once they drop the price in the 3 markets and games like Ratchet and Clank ,Heavenly Sword ,MGS 4 ,DMC 4 ,Unreal 3 ,Haze ,Eye of Judgement etc flow at a good pace its sales will skyrocket ...something the X360 ,even with its good software library ,hasnt managed to do .Marketing ,mass appeal ,concentrating on the hardcore demographics ,bad press due to rings of death ?I dont know ,the fact is that MS is showing to be unable to take Sony role as the leader of a industry of mass appeal and that gives its proper to both casual and core and hardcore gamers .Nintendo ,on the other hand ,is showing to be able to do it saleswise ,although I remain concerned about if they can do it content-wise ....their machine is too gimmicky and technically week to content most of the core and hardcore users by itself and Nintendo has a limited amount of developing power compared to Sony .

Once the 360 falls behind it wont be able to get infront again even with Halo3 and once the PS3 surpasses it there wont be any games on it except multiplatforms maybe even not them mutliplatforms titles might become exclusive for PS3 or Wii except sports games they go on every system but if they dont it usually means the end of a console i.e.Dreamcast didnt get any sports titles from EA or 2K.
I see the 360 selling at the most 40million and at the least 18million big differences there but if it stayed infront i would be so shocked i would die(maybe not but you get my point).

Well according to new rumors, aug 8th will bring a $50 price cut... and that sure won't be enough.

Canadian 360's are suppose to get a $100 decrease but that’s just because of the exchange rate (1 US $ = 1.04$ CAN). In reality Canadians 360's are only getting a $15 price cut after exchange rate (old exchange rate was at 1 US $ = 1.30$ CAN)

Also you can guarantee that financing from the new warranty will come out of Xbox Live... expect a cost increase in MS points and/or Live fees. Thinking that Microsoft will just bare the brunt of the expense without passing it down to its customers is.. hmm ... delusional.

Diomedes1976 said: Once they drop the price in the 3 markets and games like Ratchet and Clank ,Heavenly Sword ,MGS 4 ,DMC 4 ,Unreal 3 ,Haze ,Eye of Judgement etc flow at a good pace its sales will skyrocket ...

Until the PS3 is under $300 (roughly) 90% of gamers will not touch the system regardless of how many games are available for it. Sales will not skyrocket because there are too few gamers who are willing to buy a $400+ system regardless of what games are available.

Diomedes:

The ps3 already dropped his prince in japan as far as i know.

And lol at saying that Nintendo doesn't have the developing power of sony... i hope you are joking.

misterd said: *sigh* I see lots of people failed basic math. 1 data point tells you nothing. 2 data points gives you a line, but not a trend. 3 data points begins to reveal a pattern. Maybe. A few dozen data points confirms the pattern. I can't believe the number of people willing to write off the 360 after one bad week.

Most people are suggesting that the 360 will not do as well as previously anticipated because of its sales in 2007.  It sold *very* poorly started in January of 2007, and sales have slowed consistently all year.  Sales are at their worst point world wide -- this isn't a one-week issue, this is a 7 month issue.

The bigger point, however, is that Microsoft is bound and determined to do nothing about it.  The RROD warranty was about as poor of a response as they could afford to their hardware issues.  It was a business decision and MS determined that 1 billion and admission of disappointing reliability was better than the like (and otherwise inevitable) class action lawsuit settlement. 

Microsoft is determined to keep their price up or to drop it a minimal amount.  If I want to get a new 360, or a nearly new 360, I can get one in my area for $300 with a game and the owner claims about 15 hours of total use.  A lot of owners bought the 360 for gears, played it for 15-20 hours, and decided they want to sell them.  I live in a smallish city, and there are tons and tons of 360s available for a fraction of retail on craigslist.  There are a lot of Wiis available too, but they're all $75 over retail or more.

I don't see the Xbox 360 anywhere but firmly in last place at the end of this generation.  There's no way in hell they'll outsell the Wii and it's very likely that the PS3 will gain some traction in Q3/Q4 2008. 

NJ5 said: dallas said: I think that the 360 is in danger of falling to 2nd place once nintendo surpasses it, and will at some later point fall to third place once the PS3 passes it. Well, you have to realize that the 360 is only going to have a good 6 years to do its thing, and after that it is going to cease to be a competitive player. If it already has had 2 years where it has sold 10million, the best that it could do in the next 4 is another 20 million, however I will try to be conservative here and give it 17.5million. The 360 just isn't going to be doing good for the short term b/c their games division is pretty cash-poor at this point, and hasn't had the money to woo developers to give it good games lately. Almost every game announced by the 360 or PS3 platforms has gone to the PS3, a big change from 4-5 months ago. Of course this will probably amend itself by early 2008 when microsoft will have had the time to fix its reliability issues for the 360 and won't have to waste all of that $$$$ on refurbishing 360s but by then, Sony and nintendo will have gotten stronger. Why exactly would the Xbox 360 cease to be competitive after 6 years? Because it has no built-in HD disc reader?

No, consoles just have a limited life span, as consumers will demand a better game playing machine sooner or later. 

dallas said: NJ5 said: dallas said: I think that the 360 is in danger of falling to 2nd place once nintendo surpasses it, and will at some later point fall to third place once the PS3 passes it. Well, you have to realize that the 360 is only going to have a good 6 years to do its thing, and after that it is going to cease to be a competitive player. If it already has had 2 years where it has sold 10million, the best that it could do in the next 4 is another 20 million, however I will try to be conservative here and give it 17.5million. The 360 just isn't going to be doing good for the short term b/c their games division is pretty cash-poor at this point, and hasn't had the money to woo developers to give it good games lately. Almost every game announced by the 360 or PS3 platforms has gone to the PS3, a big change from 4-5 months ago. Of course this will probably amend itself by early 2008 when microsoft will have had the time to fix its reliability issues for the 360 and won't have to waste all of that $$$$ on refurbishing 360s but by then, Sony and nintendo will have gotten stronger. Why exactly would the Xbox 360 cease to be competitive after 6 years? Because it has no built-in HD disc reader?   No, consoles just have a limited life span, as consumers will demand a better game playing machine sooner or later.

But in that case, the same will happen to the PS3 and his argument becomes stale too...